This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +7.6%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 7.6% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is another increase of 1.3% from last week.

Last week we said that "this level of bullishness by Professionals suggests any downturn in the market will be shallow and short lived." And it was. Tuesday's fall this week was quickly wiped out and the market rebounded almost 50 points by the end of the week. It's uncanny how well the COT data alone is forecasting market direction.

Note: Commitment of Traders data is collected after the close on Tuesday each week and then published after the close on Friday. On the chart below: Light blue dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is 0

The COT Oscillator rose this week from -56 to 0. We have been looking for the next long entry signal and the move to zero this week confirms the best long entry was 2 weeks ago. The Emini remains over-bought and we've seen distribution above 1,560. Let's see if any market weakness early in the week brings back more bullish volume.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +6.3%

The COT Report was delayed this week because of the July 4 holiday. Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 6.3% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is a big increase of 1.8% from last week.

This level of bullishness by Professionals suggests that any downturn in the market will be shallow and short lived. But take care relying on any one single market measure – use multiple non-correlated indicators to make trading decisions.

Note: Commitment of Traders data is collected after the close on Tuesday each week and then published after the close on Friday. On the chart below: Light blue dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is -56

The COT Oscillator declined marginally this week from -54 to -56. With the Oscillator below zero we have been looking for the next long entry signal. Last week's action was very positive but the Emini is currently over-bought and touching a resistance trend line. Let's see if bullish volume returns to the market this week to push through this resistance.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +4.1%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 4.1% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is an increase of 0.1% from last week. Professionals continue to add to their long positions and the COT reading has remained positive for the last 15 weeks.

Note: Commitment of Traders data is collected after the close on Tuesday each week and then published after the close on Friday. On the chart below: Light blue dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is -49

The COT Oscillator declined marginally this week from -47 to -49. With the Oscillator below zero we're looking for the next long entry signal.

Of interest this week was the divergence between Large index futures and Emini type index futures. I calculate the COT reading in aggregate but also for the Large versus Emini types. This week the Professionals trading Large index futures became more bullish than Emini Professionals. This situation has in the past signaled low turning points. Let's see how it works out this time.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +4.0%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 4.0% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is an increase of 0.5% from last week. Professionals continue to add to their long positions during market weakness over the last week and a half.

Note: Commitment of Traders data is collected after the close on Tuesday each week and then published after the close on Friday. On the chart below: Light blue dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is -47

The COT Oscillator declined again this week from +9 to -47. With this fall below zero, we now how a confirmed high turning point at 1,559.00 on 1 June 2007. Last week I mentioned that "my best guess is that the COT Oscillator will bounce off the zero line and signal a long entry." Well, we might just have got that long entry this week. But we'll have to wait until the oscillator crosses above the zero line for a confirmation.

Although the COT data appears to be very bullish with a +4.0% reading and apparent Oscillator entry this week, the Bond market has collapsed over the last month. As a result, the Emini is very overvalued compared to Bonds and eventually something will have to give.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +3.5%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 3.5% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is a decrease of 0.2% from last week. So leading into this week's decline on Wednesday and Thursday the professionals were still long

Note: Commitment of Traders data is collected after the close on Tuesday each week and then published after the close on Friday. On the chart below: Light blue dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +9

The COT Oscillator declined again this week from +15 to +9. The Oscillator has been signaling a fall in the market since it started declining 3 weeks ago and last week I mentioned that "we're close to a cyclical high turning point." Well we finally got a break of the previous week's low but the Emini also rallied strongly on Friday. Since the professionals are still long (+3.5% reading) my best guess is that the COT Oscillator will bounce off the zero line and signal a long entry.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +3.7%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 3.7% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is a further increase of 0.7% from last week. The Commitment of Traders data has been shown to be extremely accurate in judging the strength of this last rally with the reading turning positive 12 weeks ago.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +15

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator declined again this week from +37 to +15. New highs this week and again no break of the previous week's low. Short term we're close to a cyclical high turning point but professionals have been adding further to long positions (+3.7% reading) and the uptrend appears to still be intact despite the oscillator pointing down.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +3.0%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 3.0% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is an increase of 1.2% from last week. The Commitment of Traders data has been shown to be extremely accurate in judging the strength of this last rally with the reading turning positive 11 weeks ago.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +37

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator declined this week from +62 to +37. We got a solid down day on Thursday this week but no follow-through and no break of the previous week's low. Short term we're close to a cyclical low turning point and professionals have been adding to long positions (+3.0% reading). We'll have to see how this week turns out but the uptrend appears to still be intact despite the oscillator pointing down.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +1.8%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 1.8% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is an increase of 0.8% from last week. The Commitment of Traders data has been shown to be extremely accurate in judging the strength of this last rally with the reading turning positive 10 weeks ago.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +62

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator declined this week from +70 to +62. A second oscillator turn and we're still looking for price action and breaks of significant support levels to confirm a change in trend.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +1.0%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 1.0% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is unchanged from last week. The Commitment of Traders data has been shown to be extremely accurate in judging the strength of this last rally with the reading turning positive 9 weeks ago.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +70

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator rose this week from +60 to +70. No break yet and the oscillator continued up. We're still looking for price action and breaks of significant support levels to confirm a change in trend.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +1.0%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 1.0% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is a decrease of 1.5% from last week – quite a large drop. The Commitment of Traders data has been shown to be extremely accurate in judging the strength of this last rally with the reading turning positive 8 weeks ago.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +60

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator rose this week from +45 to +60. No break yet and the oscillator continued up. We're still looking for price action and breaks of significant support levels to confirm a change in trend.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.