Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -6.4%

Professional net short positions now make up 6.4% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is a drop of 1.4% from last week, as professionals bought back short positions after Tuesday's fall.

Commitment of Traders data is collected after the close on Tuesday each week and then published after the close on Friday. So this reading does not include Friday's selling – we'll have to wait until next week to see the full impact of this week's fall.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is -39

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator has now fallen below zero and into the "look for buying opportunities" zone. The bearish divergence pattern, set up two weeks ago, obviously worked out perfectly with a big fall in the Emini this week. This drop below zero also confirms the high turning point in the Emini during the week of 23 February 2007.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -7.8%

Professional net short positions now make up 7.8% of total open interest in all stock index futures. Professionals continue to offload short positions from the peak reached 5 weeks ago.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +44

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator turned down last week but had a small up-tick this week. The bearish divergence pattern mentioned last week is still on, but only just. This is a longer term market indicator and designed to highlight broad Emini up and down trends.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -7.9%

Professional net short positions now make up 7.9% of total open interest in all stock index futures. Professionals are continuing to offload short positions from the peak reached 4 weeks ago.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +41

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator has now turned down and so expect weakness in the Emini market. There also appears to be increasing divergence with the oscillator making lower highs while the market makes higher highs. The oscillator peak reading on 27 October was +89, on 29 December it was +44 and then on 9 February it was +43 (red down arrows on chart). Look at previous turns on the chart to get a feel for how quickly the market follows the oscillator.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -8.2%

Professional net short positions now make up 8.2% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is a reduction in short positions of 2.6% from the high reading of two weeks ago.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +40

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator has now spent the last three weeks above zero and is in the "look for the next down trend" zone. It appears to be leveling out but we'll have to wait another week to see if it turns down.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -10.8%

Professional net short positions now make up 10.8% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is an increase in short positions of 1.6% from last week. The professionals have not held this large a short position since January 2005.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +20

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator has now turned up this week, having spent only one week below zero and in the "buy zone". This rise above the zero line confirms a short term low in the market during the week before last (cyan/light blue dot). We have now re-entered the "look for short trades" zone. Given the large net short position held by professionals, a  more substantial break to the down side looks ever more likely.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -9.2%

Professional net short positions now make up 9.2% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is an increase in short positions of 0.6% from last week.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is -28

Cyan (light blue) dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point

The oscillator has turned down this week and dropped from +24 to -28. This drop below the zero line allows us to confirm the top of the last upswing at 1,444.25 made during the week of 15 December 2006.

We now have a very unusual situation with the weekly close above last week's high and the oscillator dropping into the "look for long trades" zone. Remember, long signals are triggered after the oscillator has crossed below the dotted zero line and started to turn up.

Historically whenever the close is above last week's close and the oscillator has just fallen below the zero line, a rally follows. Maybe not for long – but it is a bullish sign. I call this pattern a "SnapBack" as I'm expecting the Commitment of Traders Oscillator to quickly snap back above the zero line. Examples of this pattern are shown on the chart below. Text below the weekly Emini bars is bullish; text above the bars is bearish. Based on this analysis, we could see the current rally from 1,412 continue and the market put in a final Elliott wave 5.

Snap text below bar = Bullish; Snap text above bar = Bearish

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -8.6%

Professional net short positions now make up 8.6% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is a very small decrease in short positions of 0.2% from last week. Data is delayed this week, so ignore the last bar of the COT histogram (it's just the previous week's data repeated in this case).

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +24

The oscillator has turned down this week and dropped from +44 to +24. The data was delayed this week, so ignore the last reading of -39 and cross of the zero line on the chart. However, this does suggest that a top in the Emini was likely made back during the week of 15 December 2006 at 1,444.25. We'll have to wait until the end of the week and see for sure. Remember, long signals are triggered after the oscillator has crossed below the dotted zero line and turned up.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -8.8%

Professional net short positions now make up 8.8% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is a decrease in short positions of 0.9% from last week.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +44

The oscillator continues to turn up but this does not signal to go long. Long signals are only triggered after the oscillator has crossed below the dotted zero line and turned up. Typically when this happens it's part of a divergence pattern. The Emini may try to retest the December high while the oscillator remains weak, setting up a short signal divergence pattern.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -7.8%

Professionals unwinding short positions with net short positions making up 7.8% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is down 2.2% from extreme net short position 4 weeks ago of 9.95%.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +36

The oscillator continues to turn down from the high of early October, when there was an extreme divergence between rising Emini prices and increasing short positions taken by professionals. Surprising that the Emini has not broken the rising trend line and turned down by now.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts for Emini traders:

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is -8.7%

Professionals remain bearish with net short positions making up 8.7% of total open interest in all stock index futures. However, this is less than their extreme net short position of 9.95% from 3 weeks ago.

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +52

The oscillator continues to turn down from the high of early October, when there was an extreme divergence between rising Emini prices and increasing short positions taken by professionals. Emini traders should look for opportunities to sell short when this oscillator is in overbought territory.

Footnote: Back from a week off to find I have been banned from the excellent EliteTrader forum for my last post which contained links to this Commitment of Traders analysis. Apologies to EliteTrader for violating their forum policies – just trying to help my fellow traders. I hope they let me back in soon!

Stop Press: Joe at EliteTrader has let me back in! Hooray and thank you Joe.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.