Commitment of Traders Still Bullish
Commitment of Traders latest charts.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.9% (long)
The professionals (large SP contract) reduced their long positions marginally last week. Their exposure decreased from 2.2% to 1.9% of total open interest.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +81
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator inched up to +81 last week. The week before it was at +80. We're close to over-bought but the oscillator is yet to roll over.
I remain bullish medium term, especially since we broke 1,400 and the professionals are still net long. The danger now is that we're in an uptrend and the Commitment of Traders Oscillator will signal short too early.
My best guess is that the Emini is likely to keep pushing higher, maybe erratically. But a low range weekly bar will indicate professional profit taking and a likely top for this cycle.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
Commitment of Traders Becoming Over-Bought
Apologies for posting this article so late - I took a break from trading last week. Anyway, here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals +2.2% (long)
The professionals (large SP contract) added to their long positions last week. Their exposure increased from 1.8% to 2.2% of total open interest.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +80
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now reached +80, up from +42 the week before. This is getting close to over-bought levels but shows no signs of turning down right now.
The Emini is finding resistance at 1,400 and this week we have the FOMC announcement plus a large number of economic releases. Although I'm still bullish medium term, the volume traded over the last 2 days has been very light and indicates a lack of demand. We will need a large volume range day to break 1,400 convincingly and show the uptrend still has some way to go.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
Commitment of Traders and Professionals Bullish
Commitment of Traders weekly charts below.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.8% (long)
This week the professionals (large SP contract) increased their long positions from 1.4% to 1.8% of total open interest.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +42
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rose from +38 to +42 this week. Last week I said "if we survive any test of 1,300 and get a bounce this week it will be a very bullish development." I'm sticking with my medium term bullish forecast.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
Commitment of Traders Weekly Update
Commitment of Traders weekly update charts below.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.4% (long)
The professionals (large SP contract) are still net long. Their long positions account for 1.4% of open interest, down from +1.9% last week and +2.3% the week before.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +38
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has risen slightly this week to +38, from +35 last week.
The Emini got hit hard on Friday, but as long as we stay above 1,258 (last swing low) I'm sticking with my longer term bullish outlook. In fact, if we survive any test of 1,300 and get a bounce this week it will be a very bullish development. The next Hilbert Sine Wave cross on a daily time frame is a few days away and will be key.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
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Latest COT Report
COT Report shows the professionals are still bullish. See the latest charts below.
COT Report: Professionals +1.9% (long)
The professionals (large SP contract) are still net long. Their long positions account for 1.9% of open interest, down a fraction from +2.3% last week.
COT Report: Oscillator +35
The COT Oscillator has crossed the zero line and finished the week at +35, up from -94 last week. This now confirms the low of the last cycle at 1,258 (blue cyan dot).
We got the break above the previous week's high that I was looking for as a sign of strength. This appears to confirm my longer term bullish outlook. However, that doesn't mean that we can't have smaller counter-trend moves, as suggested in Friday's article on the TRIN indicator.
The COT Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The COT data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the COT Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
Better Volume Indicator
I've updated my article on the Better Volume Indicator. The last version wasn't focussed and so this time I've tried to keep it to Emini day trading. There are 2 new videos, TradeStation Easylanguage code and the article is available in PDF format, so you can download it to read later. Check out the Better Volume Indicator article here.
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Commitment of Traders Turns Bullish
Commitment of Traders turns bullish. See the latest charts below. Apologies for the delay - upgrading the website was my priority this weekend.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals +2.3% (long)
The professionals (large SP contract) are now net long. Their long positions account for 2.3% of open interest, up from -1.3% last week. This is a positive development and fits in with my longer term cycle analysis.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -94
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has turned down from -49 to -94. We are now over-sold and in the "look to go long" zone. I'm looking for signs of strength, such as a break above last week's high (1,362).
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Click here for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
Saturday 15 March 2008Commitment of Traders Report
Commitment of Traders Report - latest charts below.
Commitment of Traders Report: Professionals -1.3% (short)
The professionals (large SP contract) are still short. They reduced their short positions slightly this last week from -1.7% to -1.3% of open interest.
The mini contract professionals continue to increase their long positions, widening the gap between large and mini contract professionals. My back testing has shown that the large contract professionals are a more reliable predictor of Emini direction.
Commitment of Traders Report: Oscillator -49
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator turned down slightly this week from -46 to -49. Down turns in the Oscillator like this usually result in new lows. The over-sold level is usually around -100 and we're only at -49 right now.
Next week's Report will be critical - will the Professionals continue to unload short positions? If so, we might be coming close to a bottom. If you have time, review this long term cycle analysis written at the beginning of the year. I'll do a major update towards the end of this next week.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Click here for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
Saturday 8 March 2008COT Commercials Go Short
Updated COT Report charts below.
COT Commercials: -1.7% (short)
The Commercials (professionals) turned bearish this week. The large contract (SP) Commercials are now net short 1.7% of open interest.
Once again we have to be wary of the delay between data collection and publication. The COT data is collected at the close on Tuesday and the largest falls in the Emini happened after Tuesday. However, I said that last week and was expecting the Commercials to be buying at the end of that week. Instead they were shorting.
Another important point to note this week. The large contract Commercials are shorting while the mini contract Commercials are going long. There is a large difference between the large contract and mini contract Commercials now. My back testing has shown that the large contract Commercials are a more reliable predictor of Emini direction.
COT Commercials: Oscillator -46
Made a change to my COT Oscillator calculation this week. The old calculation relied on a couple of hard coded numbers and I hate having anything that looks like optimization in my code. Anyway, the new code now is cleaner. The shape of the COT Oscillator has not changed just the extreme levels reached (+/-100 instead of +/-80).
This week's COT Oscillator reading is -46, up a fraction from last week. Given the Commercial's short position, I'll wait a week before commenting on the Oscillator.
The COT Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The COT data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the COT Report is published after the close on Friday. Click here for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
Saturday 1 March 2008COT Report Charts
COT Report updated charts below.
COT Report: Professionals +1.3% (long)
The Professionals (SP large contract) are still net long with a reading of +1.3% of open interest. This is down 0.3% from last week.
Remember the COT Report data is collected after the close on Tuesday, which was the high point for this last week. My guess is that the Professionals were buying on the way down at the end of this week - we'll find out in next week's COT Report.
COT Report: Oscillator -25
The COT Report Oscillator crossed back down below the zero line this week and ended at -25. At first glance this looks pretty bearish but back testing indicates otherwise.
There have been 9 incidences in the past 22 years of the Oscillator crossing the zero line and then immediately reversing. 7 of the 9 signals have resulted in rallies in the following weeks. Not a large sample, I know, but wanted to pass on this data.
We might be in the middle of a shakeout where the Professionals drive prices lower, test the 1,300 level and start accumulating. The news at the weekend was how hard Wall Street got hit on Friday and how weak the economy is. Perfect panicky mass media. Watch this space and good luck with your Emini trading.
The COT Report Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The COT data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the COT Report is published after the close on Friday. Click here for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
Saturday 23 February 2008Commitment of Traders Update
Commitment of Traders updated charts below.
Commitment of Traders Update: Professionals +1.6% (long)
The Professionals (SP large contract) are net long 1.6% of open interest. This is down from last week's reading of 1.9%. This week the large contract professionals have been reducing their long positions while the mini-sized futures contract professionals have been increasing their long positions.
Commitment of Traders Update: Oscillator +40
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator crossed the zero line and reached +40 this week. This confirms the low of the last cycle was 4 weeks ago at 1,262. The oscillator looks like it's heading higher this week.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Click here for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
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