Emini-Watch is back after a Christmas break. Haven't updated the Commitment of Traders analysis for a month – so let's see what has happened:

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -15.7% (short)

Professionals have been reducing their Short positions from the peak of -19.3% a month ago to -15.7% of total open interest this week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) Professionals are still more bearish than the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -13.7% (red line above).

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +44

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator reached a peak of +133 just over a month ago. Since then it has rolled over and this week is reading +44.

I'll post my updated swing trading charts with some comments over the next few days.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Index: Professionals -9.2% (short) and Oscillator +103

Big change during the last month in the Commitment of Traders report for the US Dollar. The Professionals have gone from +34% Long to -9.2% Short.

The US Dollar Oscillator also crossed the zero line, peaked at +123 in the over-bought region and has now rolled over. This week's reading is +103 (note: last bar on the chart reads +81 but last week's reading was +103).

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

The Commitment of Traders reading has now reached -19.3% – a level we've not seen since March 2001.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -19.3% (short)

Professionals continued to add to their Short positions last week. The Commitment of Traders is now reading -19.3% of total open interest, down from -17.8% last week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) Professionals are still more bearish than the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -25.4% (red line above).

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +113

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now rolled over from +133 last week to +113 this week. We're at a "make-or-break" level and Xmas is approaching.

We're sitting just under the 1,115 level but lacking sufficient demand to push through at the moment. We're up in the pre-market on Monday morning but this could be a setup for Professionals to take profits.

Typically the lead-up to Xmas is bullish – not that this year's seasonality pattern has been typical. But fund managers tend to leave large changes in asset allocations until the New Year.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Index: Professionals +18.5% (long) and Oscillator +75

After 2 weeks of US Dollar strength, the Professionals have taken some chips off the table. The net Long position has come down from +34.3% to +18.5%. The US Dollar Oscillator has also crossed the zero line and reached +75. Crossing the zero line allows us to identify the low of the last swing – 2 weeks ago.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

The Commitment of Traders reading has now reached -17.8%.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -17.8% (short)

Professionals continued to add to their Short positions last week. The Commitment of Traders is now reading -17.8% of total open interest, down from -16.2% last week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) Professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -21.3% (red line above).

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +133

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator ticked up a fraction this week from +129 to +133. Overbought and looking like it might make a bearish divergence pattern with lower high point.

Trend Line Congestion (Emini daily)

We've now had 6 days within a tight Congestion range on the Emini. We're likely to see larger volatility coming soon. My bias is to the downside (Commitment of Traders, monthly cycles on US Dollar, Profit Taking and No Demand patterns), however, we could see one more upside break with exhaustion volume.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Index: Professionals +34.3% (long) and Oscillator -41

Professionals continue to maintain their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading is +34.3% of total open interest. The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now at -41.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Apologies for the last email that was sent out – I changed one setting in my Feedburner account and it ended up sending out a torrent of past updates. Hopefully, problem fixed.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -15.9% (short)

Professionals continue to add to their Short positions this week. The Commitment of Traders is now reading -15.9% of total open interest, down from -14.7% last week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) Professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -19.8% (red line above). This is not a good development as the SP Professionals are usually a better indicator of market direction.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -28

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator ticked up a fraction this week from -42 to -28. Not sure this is significant – just a glitch in the calculation. We'll have to see.

I'm still bearish on the Emini and think we're watching a slow rolling over. We got a "No Demand" volume pattern on the weekly chart. Plus we're about to make a cycle top on the daily chart – the second after an "End of Trend" warning signal and very significant for me.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Index: Professionals +31.5% (long) and Oscillator +28

Professionals continue to maintain their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading is +31.5% of total open interest. The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now at +28.

I hope you caught my video on the monthly charts and cycle analysis. I still think we're seeing a gradual change in theme from equities, gold, commodities and emerging markets (risk/carry trade) to US Dollar, cash and bonds.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -14.7% (short)

Professionals continued to add a little to their Short positions this week. This week the Commitment of Traders reading is -14.7% of total open interest, down from -14.4% last week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -14.4% (red line above).

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -42

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now crossed the zero line and this week the reading is -42. This allows us to back-calculate the highest point of the last upswing – marked with a red ShowMe dot.

This week's Emini action will probably be volatile:

• Professionals are heavily Short
• We're re-testing recent highs towards 1,100
• Low volume up bars on Friday show weak buying
• No Demand and Stopping Volume patterns on the 81 minute chart
• Emini being gapped up in Monday's pre-open

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Index: Professionals +32.3% (long) and Oscillator -40

Professionals maintained their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading is +32.3% of total open interest. The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now at -40 (ignore the +23 reading on the chart, I was slow to capture the chart image and it includes Monday's trade data).

I still think we're seeing a gradual change in theme from equities, gold, commodities and emerging markets (risk/carry trade) to US Dollar, cash and bonds. The US Dollar index may be starting to see a rounded saucer forming with declining downward momentum.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -14.4% (short)

Professionals continue to add to their Short positions. This week the Commitment of Traders reading is -14.4% of total open interest, down from -13.6% last week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -14.7% (red line above).

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +117

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rolled over last week and this week the reading is +117. We were looking for weakness, such as as break below the previous week's low, which we got this week.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Index: Professionals +36.3% (long) and Oscillator -78

Professionals maintained their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading is +36.3% of total open interest. The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now at -78 and so back in the buy zone.

I still think we're seeing a gradual change in theme from equities, gold, commodities and emerging markets (risk/carry trade) to US Dollar, cash and bonds. But the large volume in the Emini on Friday shows the rally may still have legs.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -14.3% (short)

Professionals continue to add to their Short positions. This week the Commitment of Traders reading is -14.3% of total open interest, down from -13.3% last week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -13.8% (red line above).

We're starting to see profit taking by Professionals in the intra-day charts and they are using any strength in the market to add to their Short positions.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +145

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator kicked back up again this week from +129 to +145. Still waiting for weakness to appear on the weekly charts, such as a break of the previous week's low.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Index: Professionals +32.4% (long) and Oscillator +60

Professionals added a little to their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading is +32.4% of total open interest, up from +30.7% last week.

The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now at +60. I'm not happy with this "inversion" – we should be seeing US Dollar strength as the Oscillator crosses the zero line. We could see further weakness in the US Dollar before the Oscillator moves back into over-sold territory. We'll have to wait and see.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -13.3% (short)

Professionals continued to increase their Short positions this week. The Commitment of Traders reading has moved from -10.7% to -13.3% of total open interest this week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -12.3% (red line above).

Three weeks ago I said: "I'm waiting for a few weeks in a row with large increases in short positions before being convinced that this market is going to turn." The evidence is certainly mounting with this week's Commitment of Traders charts.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +129

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator turned down from +138 to +129 this week. From last week: "I'm expecting a final bounce and re-test of the highs, which should line up with the Oscillator rolling over." This week's action will be critical. Confirmation of a down leg will come with a break of this week's low.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Index: Professionals +30.7% (long) and Oscillator +47

Professionals maintained their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading stands at +30.7%, about the same as last week.

The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now crossed the zero line. From last week: "It's possible we're in for a re-run of the second half of 2008 – with US Dollar strength and Equities weakness. But the rolling over of these markets is progressing slowly."

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -10.7% (short)

Professionals continued to increase their Short positions this week. The Commitment of Traders reading has moved from -9.1% to -10.7% of total open interest this week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -7.4% (red line above).

Two weeks ago I said: "I'm waiting for a few weeks in a row with large increases in short positions before being convinced that this market is going to turn." This week's activity makes two of these weeks in a row.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +138

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rose from +117 to +138 this week. We're now firmly in the over-bought region but not turned quite yet. I'm expecting a final bounce and re-test of the highs, which should line up with the Oscillator rolling over.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Index: Professionals +30.4% (long) and Oscillator -75

Professionals reduced their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading stands at +30.4%, down from +40.0% last week.

The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now turned up and is reading -69. We've formed a Bullish Divergence pattern over the last 6 months. It's possible we're in for a re-run of the second half of 2008 – with US Dollar strength and Equities weakness. But the rolling over of these markets is progressing slowly.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.