Professionals continue to be heavily short.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -11.0% (short)

The Professionals net Short positions dropped from -12.2% to -11.0% of total open interest this week. Although the index is making lower lows (734 close), the Commitment of Traders data has improved a little from a maximum low of -15% to this week’s reading of -11%.

The red line in the chart above is still negative but rising. This shows the SP (large contract) Professionals are becoming less bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. Back testing shows the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -81

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is unchanged from last week’s reading of -81. The Oscillator is over-sold and has come back down from a spike up 2 weeks ago (possible bullish divergence).

High Volume Churn & Climax Down Bar (Emini weekly)

The Emini dropped below the critical 800 level two weeks ago. We’re now down almost 90 points from the close on Friday 13 February. This week we saw a High Volume Churn weekly bar, showing some slowing of the down move.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

The latest Commitment of Traders data shows the Professionals are becoming less bearish.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -8.2% (short)

The picture appears to be becoming clearer with the release of this week’s data. Professionals continued to reduce their Short positions and their net Short positions have now dropped to -8.2% of total open interest.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -39

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator continued to rise this week and has now reached -39. We’re still at a critical support level around 800. The market appears to be in no hurry to rally and so this week will be critical.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Professionals are becoming less bearish and the Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now over-sold and in the "buy zone".

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -10.2% (short)

The Professionals continued to reduce their Short positions this week. Their net Short positions dropped from -12.4% to -10.2% of total open interest. The pattern appears to becoming clearer with a "rounded bottom" in the Better COT indicator over the last 10 weeks.

However, the red line in the chart above is still negative. This shows the SP (large contract) Professionals are more bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. Back testing shows the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -106

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator dropped from -62 to -106 this week. The Oscillator is now over-sold and in the "buy zone". Any break above last week’s high and a move towards 900 would be bullish and confirm the next upswing.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

My apologies for the delay in publishing the latest Commitment of Traders charts.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -12.4% (short)

The Professionals reduced their Short positions this week. Their net Short positions dropped from -14.1% to -12.4% of total open interest.

The red line in the chart above is also down this week. This shows the SP (large contract) Professionals are now more bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. Back testing shows the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -62

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator dropped to -62 from +76 last week. Since the Oscillator has now dropped below the zero line, we can identify the high of the last upward swing – which was last week’s high (marked by a red dot on the price bar).

The Oscillator was over-bought last week and we’ve subsequently had a sharp decline in the Emini back to the 800 level. We’re now below the zero line in "no man’s land" – not yet over-sold (typically -100). Let’s see what happens this week.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Latest Commitment of Traders charts.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -14.1% (short)

The Professionals added to their Short positions this week. Their net Short positions rose from -11.9% to -14.1% of total open interest.

The red line in the chart above also turned down this week. This shows the SP (large contract) Professionals are now more bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. Back testing shows the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +76

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is over-bought but the reading ticked up to +76 this week.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

There have been delays in releasing Commitment of Traders data over the holiday period. Last week’s report was released after the close on Monday.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -11.9% (short)

The Professionals continue to reduce their Short positions. This week their net Short positions accounted for -11.9% of total open interest, down from a peak of -15.0%.

The red line in the chart above has risen rapidly, showing the SP (large contract) Professionals are becoming more bullish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. Back testing shows the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +59

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is over-bought and currently reading +59. This is down from a peak of +140, reached four weeks ago.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

The latest Commitment of Traders Report still shows the Professionals net short.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -13.3% (short)

The Professionals reduced their Short positions this week. However, their net Short positions still account for -13.3% of total open interest.

The red line in the chart above is still negative, showing that the SP (large contract) Professionals are more bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. Back testing shows that the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +135

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now crossed the zero line, reached a maximum of +140 last week and turned down to +135 this week. Crossing the zero line confirms the last swing low at 739 on the Emini, made 5 weeks ago (blue/cyan dot on price bar). We are now technically over-bought on the Commitment of Traders Oscillator and the turn down in the Oscillator is the first sign of weakness.

Last week we had an inside bar, down close on low volume – indicating indecision and lack of commitment to move in either direction. My cycle indicators are approaching lows on the 45, 81 and 135 minute time frames and so we could get a rally next week. However, given the bearishness of the Professionals and over-bought Commitment of Traders Oscillator, any rally will probably be weak and/or short lived.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

The latest COT Report shows the Professionals are heavily short.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -14.5% (short)

During the last 2 weeks, the Professionals have markedly increased their Short positions. Their net Short positions now account for -14.5% of total open interest.

The red line in the chart above is also negative, showing that the SP (large contract) Professionals are more bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. Back testing shows that the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.

This is not good news for the market. We are over-sold and could well get a bounce in the Emini. However, with the COT Report showing the Professionals increasing their Short positions, I believe any rally will be weak and or short lived. If you look back at the COT Report data for the 2000 to 2002 bear market, a strong rally was not possible until after the COT data started to show a Bullish Divergence with the market.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -21

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rose again this week to -21. This indicates we might get a rally soon which should take the Oscillator above the zero line. However, I’m questioning my bullishness over the last few weeks given the large Short positions held by the Professionals. Rather than express an opinion, I should just report the data.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders Oscillator has turned up from over-sold levels this week.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -5.1% (short)

The Professionals are still Short with their positions accounting for -5.1% of total open interest. Not much of a change over the last 2 months, however, there is a growing difference between SP (large contract) and ES (mini contract) Professional traders.

The red line in the chart above shows the difference between SP and ES Professional traders. A rising red line indicates SP Professionals are more bullish that ES Professionals. Back testing has shown that SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -92

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rose this week from over-sold levels to -92. We have a possible triple bottom on the Emini and "End of Trend" signal on the Hilbert Sine Wave. I’m quietly bullish about the next few weeks, but focusing on the day-to-day rather than swing trading.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Latest Commitment of Traders charts below.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -6.3% (short)

The Professionals have increased their net short positions from -5.5% last week to -6.3% this week. The SP (large contract) Professionals are still more bullish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals, as shown by red line above zero.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -67

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator dropped again this week from -39 to -67. This pattern of turning back on itself can play out either way – marking bottoms or trend continuations. However, we still have a pattern of higher lows on the Oscillator and lower lows on the Emini (bullish divergence). But I’m still just day trading and not brave enough to take a swing trade (hold overnight).

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.