The Commitment of Traders feature article has been updated:

• Video tutorials on how to import COT data into TradeStation
• Improved versions of the Better COT indicator code
• Updated Commitment of Traders Excel spreadsheet
• Introducing a Stock Market Crash indicator
• PDF version of the article available for download

Latest Commitment of Traders Charts

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +2.7% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) increased their long positions again this week from 2.5% to 2.7% of total open interest. Remember the data is collected after the close of trade on Tuesday – before Friday's market collapse.

The Large vs Mini contract difference (red line) decreased this week. This shows the large contract professionals (the "true" professionals) are less bullish than they were the week before compared to the small contract professionals (Emini). However, the decline is not great and has not fallen below the level of two weeks ago.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -90

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator declined from -56 to -90 this week. We're now in the buy zone and looking for signs of strength.

Friday's decline took me by surprise. We were over-bought on my swing trading oscillators but yet to make an "end of trend" pattern on the daily Hilbert Sine Wave. The cyclical top arrived early – from my perspective.

The volume was very high at 2.8 million contracts traded – the largest volume we've seen since the March lows. This smells of panic by the herd and Professional accumulation. The follow through was limited on Monday and some bell-weather stocks are holding up well – AAPL, RIMM, GOOG. I remain cautiously optimistic.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders latest charts.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +2.5% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) increased their long positions again this week from 1.5% to 2.5% of total open interest.

The Better COT indicator shown above also includes a red line that shows the difference between the large contract professionals (the "true" professionals) and the small contract professionals (Emini). When the red line is rising, as it did this week, the large contract professionals are becoming more bullish than the small contract professionals.

You'll notice that this often gives advanced warning of turning points. This addition to the straight measurement of the Commitment of Traders data came out of research that showed that the large contract professionals were a more reliable indicator of future turning points than the small contract traders.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -56

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator shot below the zero line this week and reached -56. This now confirms the last high turning point – the week before last at 1,441.

The question is how long we'll now spend below the zero line. Technically we're in the buy zone and looking for signs of strength. Quick turns of the Commitment of Traders Oscillator are rare though – occurring only 10% of the time.

Last week we found support at 1,375 and, as the last post discussed, we're now in an up trend. The next couple of days will be critical – if we can hold above 1,405 the up trend is strong and we could be on our way to higher highs rather than testing March lows.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders weekend update.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.5% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) have increased their long positions from 1.2% to 1.5% of total open interest.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +104

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator peaked last week and has now turned down. This week's reading is +104.

The Professionals are still long, so I'm wondering if the Oscillator will drop all the way into over-sold territory (-100) or just dip below the zero line. We'll have to wait and see.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Latest Commitment of Traders charts.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.2% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) are still long, but they reduced their long positions from 1.9% to 1.2% of total open interest this week. This is now 3 weeks in a row that the professionals have been lightening their long positions.

What was interesting this week was that the large contract (SP, etc.) professionals moved in a sharply different direction than the small contract (ES, etc.) professionals. My back-testing has shown that the large contract professionals are a more reliable indicator of future market direction and divergences like this can be significant.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +110

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator reached +110, up from +81 the week before. This is over-bought but the oscillator has still not rolled over yet.

We could be approaching a cycle top soon. We've got:

• Over-bought swing trading oscillators (TRIN, Put Call Ratio)
• Weekly Hilbert Sine Wave cycle top, and
• Over-bought on Bond market oscillator

I'm going to be looking for signs of profit-taking this week – particularly volume patterns like exhaustion volume, high volume churn, "No Demand" or Stopping Volume.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders latest charts.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.9% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) reduced their long positions marginally last week. Their exposure decreased from 2.2% to 1.9% of total open interest.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +81

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator inched up to +81 last week. The week before it was at +80. We're close to over-bought but the oscillator is yet to roll over.

I remain bullish medium term, especially since we broke 1,400 and the professionals are still net long. The danger now is that we're in an uptrend and the Commitment of Traders Oscillator will signal short too early.

My best guess is that the Emini is likely to keep pushing higher, maybe erratically. But a low range weekly bar will indicate professional profit taking and a likely top for this cycle.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Apologies for posting this article so late – I took a break from trading last week. Anyway, here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +2.2% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) added to their long positions last week. Their exposure increased from 1.8% to 2.2% of total open interest.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +80

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now reached +80, up from +42 the week before. This is getting close to over-bought levels but shows no signs of turning down right now.

The Emini is finding resistance at 1,400 and this week we have the FOMC announcement plus a large number of economic releases. Although I'm still bullish medium term, the volume traded over the last 2 days has been very light and indicates a lack of demand. We will need a large volume range day to break 1,400 convincingly and show the uptrend still has some way to go.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders weekly charts below.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.8% (long)

This week the professionals (large SP contract) increased their long positions from 1.4% to 1.8% of total open interest.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +42

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rose from +38 to +42 this week. Last week I said "if we survive any test of 1,300 and get a bounce this week it will be a very bullish development." I'm sticking with my medium term bullish forecast.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders weekly update charts below.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.4% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) are still net long. Their long positions account for 1.4% of open interest, down from +1.9% last week and +2.3% the week before.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +38

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has risen slightly this week to +38, from +35 last week.

The Emini got hit hard on Friday, but as long as we stay above 1,258 (last swing low) I'm sticking with my longer term bullish outlook. In fact, if we survive any test of 1,300 and get a bounce this week it will be a very bullish development. The next Hilbert Sine Wave cross on a daily time frame is a few days away and will be key.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

COT Report shows the professionals are still bullish. See the latest charts below.

COT Report: Professionals +1.9% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) are still net long. Their long positions account for 1.9% of open interest, down a fraction from +2.3% last week.

COT Report: Oscillator +35

The COT Oscillator has crossed the zero line and finished the week at +35, up from -94 last week. This now confirms the low of the last cycle at 1,258 (blue cyan dot).

We got the break above the previous week's high that I was looking for as a sign of strength. This appears to confirm my longer term bullish outlook. However, that doesn't mean that we can't have smaller counter-trend moves, as suggested in Friday's article on the TRIN indicator.

Better Volume Indicator

I've updated my article on the Better Volume Indicator. The last version wasn't focussed and so this time I've tried to keep it to Emini day trading. There are 2 new videos, TradeStation Easylanguage code and the article is available in PDF format, so you can download it to read later. Check out the Better Volume Indicator article here.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

Commitment of Traders turns bullish. See the latest charts below. Apologies for the delay – upgrading the website was my priority this weekend.

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +2.3% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) are now net long. Their long positions account for 2.3% of open interest, up from -1.3% last week. This is a positive development and fits in with my longer term cycle analysis.

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -94

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has turned down from -49 to -94. We are now over-sold and in the "look to go long" zone. I'm looking for signs of strength, such as a break above last week's high (1,362).

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.