Change of pace and some Emini swing trading charts. The afternoon sell-off in the Emini on Thursday was extreme. We will no doubt get a bounce – because at this point "the sellers have run out of bullets".

However, what happens after that will be critical. There are two ways to go:

1. We break through resistance at 1,117 and this endless rally continues, or
2. Exhaustion volume comes in and the Emini doesn't make it back up to 1,117

I know that sounds obvious – the market is either going up or down – duh. But it's the markets reaction to the extreme selling on Thursday that will show the way. Do the Professionals see it as an opportunity to load up some more?

At this point I favor the second scenario and the daily Emini swing trading charts below show why:

• Second cyclical turn after an "End of Trend" warning signal appears to be holding and this is often an extreme point and the start of a new trend move
   
• Volume momentum has been declining and we're running out of steam with more Bearish divergence patterns being printed
   
• This last upswing had a large number of low volume bars showing little Professional participation, and
   
• We've seen distribution volume patterns (No Demand and Profit Taking) typically seen around tops (only 3 and I suppose we could have seen more).

Emini Swing Trading: Price Cycles (Emini daily)

Emini Swing Trading: Volume Momentum (Emini daily)

Emini Swing Trading: Low Volume Bars (Emini daily)

Emini Swing Trading: Volume Patterns (Emini daily)

Good luck with your Emini swing trading.

Note to self: Stupid, stupid, stupid – why do you insist on sticking your head out? You will only get it blown off.

Follow up to the Emini Swing Trading video posted 3 weeks ago. This video re-caps some significant turning points identified in the Emini, Crude, Copper, Gold, British Pound and Bond markets.

Follow this link to see the latest high definition Emini Swing Trading video on the site.

This is a high definition video and may take 30 seconds to load. If you are having problems viewing the video you may need the latest version of the Adobe Flash Player.

You can click the "Full Screen" icon (beside the volume icon in the video controls) to see the video in full screen mode. Press Escape to exit full screen mode.

Emini Swing Trading Update 8 July 2009 (12:38)

Follow this link if you want to see the original Emini Swing Trading video.

I mention the upcoming Better Momentum indicator quite frequently. Please remember this is not like other Momentum indicators – it’s based on buying and selling VOLUME, not price. Available in the next few days. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Apologies for not posting any updates last week. This video covers a range of different markets (Emini, Gold, Crude, Copper, Pound, Bonds, etc.) from a swing trading perspective. Follow this link to see the latest high definition Emini Swing Trading video on the site.

This is a high definition video and may take 30 seconds to load. If you are having problems viewing the video you may need the latest version of the Adobe Flash Player.

You can click the "Full Screen" icon (beside the volume icon in the video controls) to see the video in full screen mode. Press Escape to exit full screen mode.

Emini Swing Trading 16 June 2009 (15:15)

I mention the upcoming Better Momentum indicator quite frequently. Please remember this is not like other Momentum indicators – it’s based on buying and selling VOLUME, not price. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Some bigger picture, Emini swing trading charts today. This post updates the Multiple Time Frames setup described here and here.

Sine Wave Support and Resistance (Emini daily)

The Pullback signal on the weekly Emini chart caught the last swing trading high at 927. The move down from that signal was good for about 50 points before being "caught" by the Pullback signal on the daily Emini chart at 876 (shown above).

We have since rallied back up to 952 and hit resistance with an "End of Trend" warning signal on the Better Sine Wave.

Trend Line Break (Emini 45 minute)

On Friday we had a failed breakout into an uptrend on the 45 minute Trend Line chart. We then broke into a downtrend before retracing back up to "kiss" the trend line.

Losing Momentum (Emini 135 minute)

We’re also losing Momentum with each push upwards taking place on lower and lower volume. We’re running out of "juice" to take the rally past 950 and onto 1,000.

Rallies often fail when the Momentum bearish divergence signal happens right next to zero line (as we have now). But from time to time we also get a final exhaustion volume blow off.

Swing Trading Oscillators (Emini daily)

Lastly, we have all the swing trading Oscillators pointing down. The Better TRIN Oscillator turned first as usual about 3 days ago. The Put Call Ratio and Smart Money Oscillators have also now turned down.

Monday’s trading activity will be critical. I went Short on Friday so I’m hoping for a breakdown. But who knows … Good luck with your Emini trading.

The Emini reversed most of it’s losses from Tuesday. We’re at a critical juncture – support level of 800 and cyclical low on the daily time frame.

I follow 3 oscillators for my swing trading – TRIN, Put Call Ratio and Smart Money. All three have now turned up from over-sold levels. In addition the Better TRIN System has also formed a cluster of Long signals.

Emini Swing Trading Oscillators (Emini daily)

Just a quick update on last week’s cycle analysis. The Bond market dropped through a critical pullback support level today. See the chart below.

Bond Market and Cyclical Turning Points (Bonds daily)

The Crude Oil market has also formed an end-of-trend warning signal. These macro moves take months to develop, but the hypothesis is that inflation will start to pick up, the Bond market will suffer and Equities will look more attractive relative to Bonds.

I must admit, it feels pretty scary (read: dumb) to be talking about a rally in the Emini. But all I can do is relay what I see in the charts. In the meantime, there are plenty of day trading opportunities to chase. Good luck with your Emini trading.