Low volume, low range and inside bar today. The market is no doubt waiting for the outcome of the US election to make a strong directional move. But which way?

My swing trading oscillators are over-bought and the Better TRIN Oscillator has turned down. The Hilbert Sine Wave on the 135 minute chart (my primary swing trading time frame) has also turned down. In addition, volume is low indicating No Demand. However, the Emini is yet to follow.

Tuesday will probably be quiet too but we might get a better idea of which way the Emini will break.

The Better TRIN System closed out a nice 135 point trade at the close today. The System entered Long 5 days ago at 835, the lowest close of the last cycle. The Better TRIN Oscillator has now turned down and is the signal to take profits.

TRIN System Winning Trade (Emini daily)

If you own the Better TRIN System and want to copy these trades, make sure you have all the patterns (TypeA to TypeE) set to True; DoubleUp set to True; and "Allow multiple entry orders in the same direction" ticked.

You can learn more about the TRIN Indicator and systems here. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Is Emini swing trading dead? When I first started this blog my trading was roughly 70:30 swing trading to day trading. I usually held my swing trades for 2 to 4 days and set my profit target between 10 and 20 points. My day trades were all closed out within an hour max and my profit target was 2 to 6 points.

In the last year or so the average daily range has exploded from 10 to 35 points. The chart below shows the Emini’s average daily range for both day and night sessions. Last week we had 4 days out of 5 with a range above 50 points, including Monday with a range of 108 points!

Daily Range (Emini day & night session)

As a result, I haven’t put on a swing trade for months and I’m currently 100% day trading. With the extra volatility I’ve also widened my stops and profit targets. These are great days for day traders, huge liquidity and large daily swings – and no need to hold positions overnight with news event driven risk.

Momentum Bullish Divergence (Emini 135 minute)

It’s a dangerous business calling tops and bottoms. But I did want to show the 135 minute Emini chart above with my Better Momentum indicator. Most momentum indicators measure price swings, mine measures volume swings. As a move progresses and approaches a turning point the amount of buying or selling momentum declines.

This reduction in buying or selling volume sets up a bullish or bearish divergence pattern. Sometimes the divergence pattern ends quickly and sometimes it becomes protracted and it seems like the market will never reverse. Some moves finally reverse with a spike in momentum in the direction of the original move.

As you can see on the chart above we’ve got a protracted bullish divergence pattern. We could be close to a final resolution and the beginning of an upswing. We’re also getting close to "End of Trend" signals on the US$ versus Euro, Pound and Swiss Franc.

Let’s see what happens next week. Good luck with your Emini trading.

I’m annoyed because I missed this Emini swing trade. I’ve had a bullish bias over the last couple of weeks and it has impacted my trading. I find this happens when:

• I’ve got too many charts open
• I’m researching new ideas, or
• I let one indicator overly influence my trading

Good trading is about making fewer mistakes and so in the spirit of learning from my mistakes, this is what I missed on this Emini swing trade:

Emini Swing Trade (45 minute chart)

• Support at 1,337 was broken on high volume last Friday
• We continue to trade below Support and are therefore in a down trend
• On Wednesday morning the Hilbert Sine Wave signals a pull back ("PB" text)
• After the FOMC announcement we have a high volume rally
• But this high volume bar closes off the highs & below resistance
• Further weakness on the next bar with a high down volume reversal bar
• Should have shorted on the close of this bar or break below the low of this bar
• Gap down the next morning and down trend continues
• "End of Trend" warning signal and 30+ point move

Note to Self: Trading is easy – you only have 2 choices, long or short. Keep things simple – for me, my Emini swing trading methodology consists of the Hilbert Sine Wave in multiple time frames with volume confirmation.

Good luck with your Emini trading.