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Weak sell off today and we found support at 1,358 – so don’t think this trend is over quite yet. Plus the Risk On/Off charts are not joining in.
I’m a little bit scatter brained today as we’re in the middle of what feels like a hurricane here in Hawaii. Lots of roads closed and flooding – but it’s still paradise to me
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We must have flushed out quite a lot of sellers yesterday, as we recovered quite nicely today. And now we have our lines in the sand – 1,375 on the upside and 1,366 on the downside.
After the ISM numbers came out the Professionals stepped in at 1,367 to 1,368 and held it. The Amateurs tested down to that level later in the day and got wrong-footed. We’re now holding at the highs at the close and sitting under 1,375 – in fact, in the after hours they’re trying to take it through 1,375.
Quote of the day …
Gutsy positioning Short by Jason S. just before the release of the ISM numbers …
“Thanks to the numbers that was the quickest 5 points I’ve ever made or ever will! Less than 1 minute. Having already got stopped out for 2.5 trying to get short I then waited for the divergence on 1500 after exhaustion then the RAMBO bar at 1373 was enough for me to short. DOM couldn’t keep up after that. I’m settling for + 2.5 today.”
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Emini Trading Update – Wednesday 29 Feb 2012 (15:47)
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I got beat up pretty bad on Monday and Tuesday – so going into today I was a little gun shy. There were some great setups with large trending moves – but I bailed out way too early on trades, just scared out.
I think that’s the nature of the game – emotions taking over when I should just sit on my hands. As I always say (but rarely follow) – if you’ve got the trend direction right, it’ll all work out OK in the end.
On getting beat up …
Whenever I post about my bad trading days I get a few emails from gentle readers saying “pick yourself up, dust yourself down”. Yes, absolutely – that’s what I do every time.
In fact, my natural response is to retreat to my cave, study my charts, figure out where I went wrong, work on my code, reinforce my trading rules. All-in-all it’s productive time.
And I remind myself that this is the life I have chosen. The losses are part of the game, the struggle is part of the achievement. From Scott of the Antarctic:
“We took risks, we knew we took them; things have come out against us, and therefore we have no cause for complaint, but bow to the will of Providence, determined still to do our best to the last.”
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Hope you’re enjoying your weekend. RAMBO patterns on Friday and No Demand for the week. Looks like no one is game to drive the equity markets through the highs for now – despite the risk on markets now breaking out into nice up trends. So maybe we’ll consolidate for a few days before building up enough juice to try 1,370s again.
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Emini Trading Update – Wednesday 22 Feb 2012 (11:03)
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Consolidation type day today. I was all prepared for a runaway trend day up – just because we haven’t seen one in a while and lot of people talking about how poor the breadth is, etc. Some risk on markets have broken up, like gold. So maybe tomorrow. But gotta trade the signals.
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Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 (13:54)
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Nice OSOK this morning and the charts set up some nice little moves today.
Quote of the day …
Cute and crazy email from David R. today. But when you read this remember: Indicators are just indicators – it’s how you read the market and react to what you see that counts.
“Barry, Are you sure you didn’t go back in time and give yourself the S&P 500 e-mini stock charts from the future? (You know, like how in Back to the Future old Biff went back in time and gave himself (young Biff) the sports results almanac from over the past century?) Does this mean we’ll soon be living in Baryland?
Looking at your indicator package and watching the action today…SIMPLY AMAZING!
1500 tick bar – at open of market professionals getting ready and positioned just at a cyclical resistance level after first bearish divergence. Then a quick completion of cycle, another resistance with two quick flush signals with more professionals getting positioned and BAM! Sink to the floor for a quick 4!
That 4 point target is absolutely perfect in this instance. A support cycle generated, exhaustion selling, professionals getting out, amateurs getting ‘wrong footed,’ first bullish divergence and a quick ‘re-test’ of the bottom/support with less selling and another bullish divergence and…BAM! Another quick 4 if you get out right when the professionals start taking profits again.
I MEAN IT WAS SO SYMPHONIC AND BEAUTIFULLY ORCHESTRATED – JS BACH HIMSELF HAS NEVER CREATED ANYTHING SO PERFECT!
11am CST is past – so less chance for a trend change, but we’ll see! Exhaustion buying, professionals at the top, end of trend in place, and first bearish divergence… right at a cyclical resistance top on the 4500 tick bar. Another 4 coming short?????
Well, young Barry, if old Barry ever shows up again, would you tell him Dave from the USA says thank you for using the time machine for the forces of GOOD and letting me in on the future!!!!!!”
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Hope you’re enjoying the long weekend. Just some weekend charts – rates, bonds, dollar index and equities. After a persistent decline in rates during 2011 we’ve spent the last 3 months in consolidation. Are we setting up for a pop in rates?
Update …
Woke up Monday morning to read this from Global Macro Monitor on The Big Picture. Nice little piece talking about the possibility of rates rising – and putting more meat on the bones with a discussion of in-flows and out-flows.
Link of the day …
If you’ve got an Android phone why not check out the Emini-Watch app. Search for it in the Android Market or follow this link: Emini-Watch Android App.
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Emini Trading Update – Thursday 16 Feb 2012 (17:59)
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Discussion about “Crazy Ivans” in today’s video – and thank you to Byron A. for the terminology.
The “Crazy Ivan” term comes from the movie “The Hunt for Red October” with Sean Connery and a bunch of stars. During the underwater chase the Russian submarine makes a sharp turn around to look behind it with sonar. It freaks out the chasing submarine commander who doesn’t understand what the Russian sub is doing.
In the market, a “Crazy Ivan” is a quick dive in the opposite direction – 2 to 4 points but done really quickly. It freaks out the trend followers and causes them to exit and reverse positions. Then the market continues on it’s way – having run the trailing stops and wrong-footed a bunch of traders.
Today, we got 2 moves like that. One just before 9 and one just after 10. In the video I was in Long when the second one happened, between 12:30 and 14:30 on the video, and you can hear my stunned silence as I’m trying to process what the market is doing. Initial panic, try to exit at par, then when support holds and the Professionals buy in reassess and decide the market is now ready to break to new highs. In fact the market ends up 10 points higher!
Link of the day …
Another great interview from Paul Jay at the Real News Network about the day-to-day struggles of the Greek people. How can prosperous countries like Germany and France stand by and do this to their European neighbours?
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Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 (19:01)
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Two little day trades in today’s video. OSOK and then decided to take a reversal trade because the setup was so nice. Sorry the video is a little long.
We run out of oxygen above 1,350 and haven’t been able to get through. But there’s hardly a rush for the doors to get out and go Short. The video includes Better X-Trend on the NASDAQ – which still hasn’t shown blow off volume activity. We’ll see.
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Incredibly sad and shocking photos coming out of Athens this morning. How can an elected government ignore the will of the people? Surely with decisions that have such a dramatic impact on the population a referendum should be held. Do the politicians really think they know best? On their heads be it.
And our rally continues. We’re back into the 1,350s and AAPL breaks $500. No obvious signs of blow off activity – although the volumes are light – so we just creep higher.
Two day trades in the video above. Just watching my 1,500 tick chart for “First divergence” type signals and then waiting for some kind of confirming Professional or Amateur activity. Although both of today’s trades would have been better waiting for Amateur testing bars as lower risk entry points.
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