Normally I’m a real purist about trading the Emini – simply put, it’s the perfect trading vehicle. But I’m biased and I think it’s clouded my judgement about Forex.
My typical response is “don’t trade Forex because there’s no volume data”. I need price, volume traded at the bid/ask and average trade size to have a complete view of what’s happening. Price alone or price plus tick count (as a proxy for volume) aren’t enough.
But I’ve been ignoring Forex futures traded on the CME Globex. The video below shows how to use the “Better” indicators for Forex trading.
If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Forex Charts video on the website.
Roller-coaster ride on the Emini during Thursday and more hysteria in the Euro. We're approaching another cyclical turning point in the Euro, so I'm cautiously watching for Amateur activity and a possible bottom to form. Meanwhile on the Emini – are we about to have another go at 1,210?
If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Forex Charts video on the website.
HIGH DEF VIDEO – MAY TAKE 15 SECONDS TO LOAD
Forex & Emini Charts (8:18)
Here's a link to the Forex Charts, Euro and Market Hysteria article mentioned in the video. I'm looking forward to the end of the week and tomorrow's Emini trading.
First video for 2010 – US Dollar Index, Euro and Gold. These markets are obviously correlated but they also help show the way for equity indices and the Emini.
If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Forex Charts video on the website.
HIGH DEF VIDEO – MAY TAKE 15 SECONDS TO LOAD
Forex Charts: US Dollar Index, Euro and Gold (10:08)
My broad market theme remains unchanged – bottom in US Dollar has been put in and we should see the reversal of the "risk" trade this year with weakness in Equities and strength in US Treasuries. However, a potential Emini roll over is developing slowly. In the meantime, Emini day trading opportunities abound!
Personal note: Left Biarritz, France, after 3 months. Spent a grueling 3 weeks in freezing London with no trading or Emini-Watch.com updates. Now in Kauai, Hawaii, for 2 months and settling into a routine again.
Time to do an update on the US Dollar and my Forex Charts. I've been waiting for this trend change for weeks, if not months now. You can check out the last Forex Chart update here.
I don't trade Forex because volume data is not available. However, I do make strategic changes to my trading account currency (one of the reasons I use Interactive Brokers) and have now moved 100% into the US Dollar.
The video below shows daily and monthly charts for the US Dollar Index, Euro and Aussie Dollar. Cyclical turns on the highest time frame (in this case monthly) coinciding with "End of Trend" warning signals on the lowest time frame (in this case daily) usually result in high probability reversal points. For this reason I'm now bullish on the US Dollar and bearish on equities.
If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Forex Charts video on the website.
HIGH DEF VIDEO – MAY TAKE 15 SECONDS TO LOAD
Forex Charts: US Dollar Index, Euro and Aussie $ (6:54)
Housekeeping note: Apologies the website is a little messy at the moment. I'm going through a gradual re-design and still haven't decided where everything should live.
Change of pace in this post with some monthly forex charts and multi-media "candy". Do Gary Shilling, Bob Prechter, Michael Panzner, etc. count as "candy"? Maybe to contrarian traders, like me.
We had S&P500 index weakness this week but US Dollar strength. But all I hear in the media is – "the US Dollar is going to zero and gold is going to the moon". I don't disagree that printing money will eventually devalue it – but most of the printed money is still sitting in reserves held by the banks and has not made it's way into the money supply through greater lending.
I think there's a major difference in time frame being considered and the commentators should be clearer on that. Are they taking a 10-year view? And if so, is that viewpoint helpful to a trader?
Forex Charts
Here is what I'm seeing on my forex charts:
Approaching monthly cyclical turning points, and
"End of Trend" warning signals on daily charts
Forex Charts: US Dollar Index (monthly & daily)
Forex Charts: Euro (monthly & daily)
Forex Charts: Aussie Dollar (monthly & daily)
And now for the multi-media "candy".
Gary Shilling, Economist
Gary Shilling on Forex Charts
Gary Shilling in an interview with Yahoo! Tech Ticker. "I think the Dollar is in for a substantial rally. Two reasons. One, it's a safe haven … and the second thing, everyone's on the same side of the boat." (around 4:25)
By the way, I think Henry Blodget and Aaron Task are THE best financial interviewers in the media. Their questions and comments are always spot on – they know what they're talking about (unlike the pretty bobble heads on the other networks).
Bob Prechter, Elliottian
Bob Prechter on Forex Charts
Bob Prechter, Elliott Wave International, says "I'm very bullish on the dollar. Super. I think it's going to be up for a year or two." (around 4:30)
Michael Panzner, Economist
Michael Panzner on Forex Charts
Michael Panzner is not exactly a US Dollar bull but "In the short run … I sense that we may see a Dollar rally first." (around 5:30)
Karl Denninger, Trader
Karl Denninger on Forex Charts
Lastly, the inimitable Karl Denninger from The Market Ticker. Now Karl has "outrage" – 'nuff said. Good luck with your trading.
