29 August 2009

Commitment of Traders – No Signs of Weakness Yet

Emini Commitment of Traders Image

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -5.9% (short)

Professionals continue to reduce their Short positions. This week’s reading is -5.9% of total open interest, down from -6.4% last week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -4.2% (red line above).

Emini Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +47

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator dropped this week from +73 to +47.

Emini Commitment of Traders History Image

Commitment of Traders: 2001 to 2003

Looking back at the last bear market, most declines that led to a re-testing of the lows were signaled by a decline in the Commitment of Traders. We haven’t seen a decline in the Professionals’ reading, so there’s still a chance that this rally is not over.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Commitment of Traders Image

US Dollar Index: Professionals +40.7% (long) and Oscillator +27

Professionals increased their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading stands at +40.7%, up from +34.9% last week.

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has ticked down and now reads +27.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.