Commitment of Traders: Professionals -10.7% (short)
Professionals continued to increase their Short positions this week. The Commitment of Traders reading has moved from -9.1% to -10.7% of total open interest this week.
The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -7.4% (red line above).
Two weeks ago I said: "I'm waiting for a few weeks in a row with large increases in short positions before being convinced that this market is going to turn." This week's activity makes two of these weeks in a row.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +138
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rose from +117 to +138 this week. We're now firmly in the over-bought region but not turned quite yet. I'm expecting a final bounce and re-test of the highs, which should line up with the Oscillator rolling over.
US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
US Dollar Index: Professionals +30.4% (long) and Oscillator -75
Professionals reduced their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading stands at +30.4%, down from +40.0% last week.
The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now turned up and is reading -69. We've formed a Bullish Divergence pattern over the last 6 months. It's possible we're in for a re-run of the second half of 2008 – with US Dollar strength and Equities weakness. But the rolling over of these markets is progressing slowly.
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.