31 October 2009

Commitment of Traders Oscillator Turns Over

Emini Commitment of Traders Image

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -14.4% (short)

Professionals continue to add to their Short positions. This week the Commitment of Traders reading is -14.4% of total open interest, down from -13.6% last week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -14.7% (red line above).

Emini Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +117

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rolled over last week and this week the reading is +117. We were looking for weakness, such as as break below the previous week's low, which we got this week.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Commitment of Traders Image

US Dollar Index: Professionals +36.3% (long) and Oscillator -78

Professionals maintained their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading is +36.3% of total open interest. The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now at -78 and so back in the buy zone.

I still think we're seeing a gradual change in theme from equities, gold, commodities and emerging markets (risk/carry trade) to US Dollar, cash and bonds. But the large volume in the Emini on Friday shows the rally may still have legs.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.