Saturday 21 June 2008

Commitment of Traders Oscillator Over-Sold

Commitment of Traders latest charts

Emini Commitment of Traders Image

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +4.9% (long)

Small drop in the professionals' long positions from 5.4% to 4.9% of total open interest. Remember this is measuring the Large SP contract professionals.

The difference between the Large and Mini contract professionals has also widened. The red line in the chart above is rising, which indicates that the Large contract professionals (the "true" professionals) are becoming more bullish than the Mini contract professionals.

Emini Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -122

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has leveled off and is almost unchanged from last week at -122. This is in the buy zone and so I'm looking for signs of strength.

Friday's large drop took me by surprise and I'm sure I sound like a broken record with my "medium term bullish" view. However, I still believe we're building a bottom with Professionals accumulating on large volume down days (like Friday) and possible market crash media stories designed to scare the general public into selling.

The swing trading risks might be high right now but the day trading opportunities are great, with large intraday ranges and tradable swings.

Good luck with your Emini trading.

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.

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