17 October 2009

COT Report – Professionals Still Adding to Short Positions

Emini Commitment of Traders Image

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -14.3% (short)

Professionals continue to add to their Short positions. This week the Commitment of Traders reading is -14.3% of total open interest, down from -13.3% last week.

The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -13.8% (red line above).

We're starting to see profit taking by Professionals in the intra-day charts and they are using any strength in the market to add to their Short positions.

Emini Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +145

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator kicked back up again this week from +129 to +145. Still waiting for weakness to appear on the weekly charts, such as a break of the previous week's low.

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders

US Dollar Commitment of Traders Image

US Dollar Index: Professionals +32.4% (long) and Oscillator +60

Professionals added a little to their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading is +32.4% of total open interest, up from +30.7% last week.

The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now at +60. I'm not happy with this "inversion" – we should be seeing US Dollar strength as the Oscillator crosses the zero line. We could see further weakness in the US Dollar before the Oscillator moves back into over-sold territory. We'll have to wait and see.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.