Friday 16 March 2007

Emini Daily Update: No Demand Volume Pattern

The Emini closed down 4.50 points at 1,399.00 on Friday. Three charts to wrap up the week - two short term and one medium term.

Emini No Demand Volume Pattern Image

The first chart above shows daily Emini bars with volume plotted below. Volume has been declining for the last couple of days while the Emini has made new highs. Friday's volume actually made a No Demand pattern (labeled 'NoD'). Previous No Demand patterns are also shown.

Emini Trend Indicator Image

The second chart above shows my composite Trend Oscillator. This combines my four trend oscillators (TRIN, Open-Close, Smart Money, Hilbert Sine Wave) into one indicator. The oscillator peaked last week and is now declining. However, it has only just broken the +100 level and has some way to go before signaling an uptrend.

Emini Commitment of Traders Image

The last chart is a longer term measure of Emini direction - Commitment of Traders and Emini weekly bars. Firstly, the Commitment of Traders has turned positive with a +1.1% reading. Secondly, the COT Oscillator has bottomed at -105. This suggests the Emini is bottoming. Check out the previous time this happened back in October 2005.

In summary, expect more Emini weakness in the short term. However, the 1,375 level may well hold and provide support for a further up move in the medium term.

Good luck Emini trading next week.


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