Saturday 9 June 2007

Commitment of Traders Report showing professionals are still Long

Emini Commitment of Traders Image

This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +3.5%

Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 3.5% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is a decrease of 0.2% from last week. So leading into this week's decline on Wednesday and Thursday the professionals were still long.

Note: Commitment of Traders data is collected after the close on Tuesday each week and then published after the close on Friday. On the chart below: Light blue dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point.

Emini Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is +9

The COT Oscillator declined again this week from +15 to +9. The Oscillator has been signaling a fall in the market since it started declining 3 weeks ago and last week I mentioned that "we're close to a cyclical high turning point." Well we finally got a break of the previous week's low but the Emini also rallied strongly on Friday. Since the professionals are still long (+3.5% reading) my best guess is that the COT Oscillator will bounce off the zero line and signal a long entry.

Remember, this is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. Click here for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.

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