Saturday 1 March 2008

COT Report Charts

COT Report updated charts below.

COT Report Image

COT Report: Professionals +1.3% (long)

The Professionals (SP large contract) are still net long with a reading of +1.3% of open interest. This is down 0.3% from last week.

Remember the COT Report data is collected after the close on Tuesday, which was the high point for this last week. My guess is that the Professionals were buying on the way down at the end of this week - we'll find out in next week's COT Report.

COT Report Oscillator Image

COT Report: Oscillator -25

The COT Report Oscillator crossed back down below the zero line this week and ended at -25. At first glance this looks pretty bearish but back testing indicates otherwise.

There have been 9 incidences in the past 22 years of the Oscillator crossing the zero line and then immediately reversing. 7 of the 9 signals have resulted in rallies in the following weeks. Not a large sample, I know, but wanted to pass on this data.

We might be in the middle of a shakeout where the Professionals drive prices lower, test the 1,300 level and start accumulating. The news at the weekend was how hard Wall Street got hit on Friday and how weak the economy is. Perfect panicky mass media. Watch this space and good luck with your Emini trading.

The COT Report Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The COT data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the COT Report is published after the close on Friday. Click here for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.

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