Saturday 15 March 2008

Commitment of Traders Report

Commitment of Traders Report - latest charts below.

Emini Commitment of Traders Report Image

Commitment of Traders Report: Professionals -1.3% (short)

The professionals (large SP contract) are still short. They reduced their short positions slightly this last week from -1.7% to -1.3% of open interest.

The mini contract professionals continue to increase their long positions, widening the gap between large and mini contract professionals. My back testing has shown that the large contract professionals are a more reliable predictor of Emini direction.

Emini Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

Commitment of Traders Report: Oscillator -49

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator turned down slightly this week from -46 to -49. Down turns in the Oscillator like this usually result in new lows. The over-sold level is usually around -100 and we're only at -49 right now.

Next week's Report will be critical - will the Professionals continue to unload short positions? If so, we might be coming close to a bottom. If you have time, review this long term cycle analysis written at the beginning of the year. I'll do a major update towards the end of this next week.

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Click here for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.

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