Friday 28 March 2008

Trend Line Not Broken Yet

Trend line yet to be broken. The Emini closed down 10.75 points at 1,319.00 on Friday. The chart below shows the upper trend line (red) is yet to be broken. Until it is, the Emini is technically still in a down trend.

Emini Trend Line Image

Trend Lines (Emini 27 minute)

I got my pants kicked on Friday. I was watching the consolidation zone (white bars) around 1,330 and took a long trade when I saw a trend line break (up) in a lower time frame. The Emini promptly turned around and dived.

This was one of my discretionary swing trades and not system based. Most of my swing trading is based on a variation of the Better TRIN Oscillator. Anyway, I was stopped out for a 15 point loss - ouch. Luckily I was not trading size on this discretionary trade.

Emini Oscillators Image

Oscillators (Emini daily)

What makes this trade even more stupid is that none of my swing trading oscillators have turned up. The chart above shows the TRIN, Put Call Ratio and Smart Money oscillators all pointing down. The Hilbert Sine Wave (daily) is also turned down.

My last 2 discretionary trades have been nice winners. I got cocky on this trade and was focussed too heavily on one market view. So live and learn.

The website was upgraded to the latest version of WordPress over the weekend. Please bear with me, there are still some glitches. Other news, Emini-Watch should pass a significant milestone this week. As a special thank you, I'm giving away a prize to one lucky subscriber. Details later this week.

Good luck with your Emini trading.

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