Saturday 3 May 2008

Commitment of Traders Still Bullish

Commitment of Traders latest charts.

Commitment of Traders Image

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.9% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) reduced their long positions marginally last week. Their exposure decreased from 2.2% to 1.9% of total open interest.

Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +81

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator inched up to +81 last week. The week before it was at +80. We're close to over-bought but the oscillator is yet to roll over.

I remain bullish medium term, especially since we broke 1,400 and the professionals are still net long. The danger now is that we're in an uptrend and the Commitment of Traders Oscillator will signal short too early.

My best guess is that the Emini is likely to keep pushing higher, maybe erratically. But a low range weekly bar will indicate professional profit taking and a likely top for this cycle.

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.

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