Saturday 19 July 2008

Latest Commitment of Traders Report

Analysis of the latest Commitment of Traders Report:

Emini Commitment of Traders Image

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -1.2% (short)

The large (SP) contract professionals have been reducing their short positions over the last couple of weeks. This weeks reading is -1.2% of total open interest, up from the -3.2% level reached 2 weeks ago.

By contrast, the mini (ES) contract professionals have been increasing their short positions and so the difference between the large and mini contract professionals has been increasing (red line in the chart above). The large contract professionals have historically been a better indicator of future market direction than the mini contract professionals.

Emini Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -66

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator turned down this week from -38 to -66. This Oscillator pattern can be seen at previous significant lows and suggests that the Emini will re-test the 1,200 level before we start another bullish phase in the market.

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.