Saturday 9 August 2008

Commitment of Traders Weakens

Commitment of Traders data weakens this week.

Emini Commitment of Traders Image

Commitment of Traders: Professionals -0.5% (short)

The large (SP) contract professionals reversed and went net short this week. The Commitment of Traders reading was -0.5% (short) of total open interest, down from +0.7% (long) last week.

The red line in the chart above represents the difference between large (SP) contract professionals and mini (ES) contract professionals. The red line dipped this week to -0.2, showing the large and mini contract professionals are closely aligned.

Emini Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +67

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator crossed the zero line and ended at +67 this week. This confirms the last swing low at 1,200 made 4 weeks ago. We've got:

Hilbert Sine Wave cyclical tops on daily, 81 and 135 minute charts
Potential bearish divergence pattern on the adjusted TRIN
Emini is over-extended after Friday's buying surge, and
Down turn in the Bond market around 20 days ago

I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking this week around the 1,300 level.

The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link to a feature article with a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.