Thursday 26 June 2008

How Could I Have Missed This Emini Swing Trade?

I'm annoyed because I missed this Emini swing trade. I've had a bullish bias over the last couple of weeks and it has impacted my trading. I find this happens when:

I've got too many charts open
I'm researching new ideas, or
I let one indicator overly influence my trading

Good trading is about making fewer mistakes and so in the spirit of learning from my mistakes, this is what I missed on this Emini swing trade:

Emini Swing Trade Image

Emini Swing Trade (45 minute chart)

Support at 1,337 was broken on high volume last Friday
We continue to trade below Support and are therefore in a down trend
On Wednesday morning the Hilbert Sine Wave signals a pull back ("PB" text)
After the FOMC announcement we have a high volume rally
But this high volume bar closes off the highs & below resistance
Further weakness on the next bar with a high down volume reversal bar
Should have shorted on the close of this bar or break below the low of this bar
Gap down the next morning and down trend continues
"End of Trend" warning signal and 30+ point move

Note to Self: Trading is easy - you only have 2 choices, long or short. Keep things simple - for me, my Emini swing trading methodology consists of the Hilbert Sine Wave in multiple time frames with volume confirmation.

Good luck with your Emini trading.