21 January 2009

Emini Swing Trading Oscillator Update

The Emini reversed most of it’s losses from Tuesday. We’re at a critical juncture – support level of 800 and cyclical low on the daily time frame.

I follow 3 oscillators for my swing trading – TRIN, Put Call Ratio and Smart Money. All three have now turned up from over-sold levels. In addition the Better TRIN System has also formed a cluster of Long signals.

TRIN Indicator System Image

Emini Swing Trading Oscillators (Emini daily)

Just a quick update on last week’s cycle analysis. The Bond market dropped through a critical pullback support level today. See the chart below.

Bond Market Image

Bond Market and Cyclical Turning Points (Bonds daily)

The Crude Oil market has also formed an end-of-trend warning signal. These macro moves take months to develop, but the hypothesis is that inflation will start to pick up, the Bond market will suffer and Equities will look more attractive relative to Bonds.

I must admit, it feels pretty scary (read: dumb) to be talking about a rally in the Emini. But all I can do is relay what I see in the charts. In the meantime, there are plenty of day trading opportunities to chase. Good luck with your Emini trading.