14 July 2009

Hilbert Sine Wave – Cycles and Trends

Happy Bastille Day everyone and "Vive la Revolution!"

In case you missed it: 336 laid-off employees at the New Fabris car-parts factory in Chatellerault, central France, have come up with an in-your-face way of negotiating their severance pay. Either they're given $41,000 per employee as part of the company's closure or they'll blow the entire plant to smithereens.

As an Englishman, now living in Australia, this brings a smile to my face. But it's also very sad – these workers just want to hold a steady job, be contributing members of society, raise families, pay their bills.

I don't know the answer – but it makes me wonder "Why isn't this happening all over? Why isn't this happening in America? Why are the American people standing by, ignorant of the financial system, letting fat cats who are 'too big to fail' be bailed out?"

Remember Howard Beale (played by Peter Finch) in Network 1976. ”I'm as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this any more!” Where is the Revolution people?

Network 1976 "I'm as mad as hell…"

So what about the markets? The next test for the Emini will be a cyclical turning point in the 135 minute chart, shown below.

Emini Hilbert Sine Wave Image 1

Approaching Hilbert Sine Wave Turning Point (Emini 135 min)

We should see this cycle turn on the Hilbert Sine Wave confirmed Wednesday (or at the latest Thursday). Remember, high probability trades set up when cycle moves in higher time frames line up with trend moves in lower time frames.

Emini Hilbert Sine Wave Image 2

Approaching Hilbert Sine Wave End of Trend Warning Signal (Emini 15 min)

In the lower time frame – 15 minute chart in this case – we're approaching an "End of Trend" warning signal on the Hilbert Sine Wave. So potentially we have an end of trend coinciding with a cyclical turn in the higher time frame.

Emini No Demand Signal Image

No Demand Volume Pattern (Emini 135 min)

Last chart just shows there is some weakness and lack of buying pressure. Let's see how this plays out over the next two days. Good luck with your Emini trading.