1 October 2009

Hilbert Sine Wave – End of Trend Follow Up

Follow up to last Wednesday’s post about the Hilbert Sine Wave on the 81 minute Emini chart. After an "End of Trend" warning signal we expect cyclical activity – well, we’ve had some huge day trading ranges over the last week. And the Hilbert Sine Wave has marked the major Support and Resistance levels at 1,040 and 1,060.

Emini Hilbert Sine Wave 81m Image

Hilbert Sine Wave – Cycles After End of Trend (Emini 81 min)

We’re now approaching another cyclical Support on the 81 minute chart. We’ve had the cross on the Hilbert Sine Wave, we’re now looking for a sign of strength. The same pattern can be seen on the 135 minute chart – my primary Emini swing trading time frame.

Emini Hilbert Sine Wave Daily Image

Hilbert Sine Wave – Pull Back Approaching (Emini daily)

In addition to the 81 and 135 minute time frames, we also have a cyclical low approaching on the Emini daily chart. If Support holds over the next 2 to 3 days this would mark a Pull Back in an uptrend on the daily chart and a continuation of the uptrend. We wouldn’t see an "End of Trend" warning signal form until later this month.

In my opinion, we’ve got too many people calling for an end to this uptrend. The market will always fool the maximum number of people. My hypothesis at this stage is that we’ll make a final break to the upside before some Exhaustion selling.

Emini Exhaustion Volume Image

Climax Volume Down Days (Emini daily)

We’ve had 2 Climax Volume down days and the activity has been intense. I wonder if the Shorts have "run out of bullets" and the Pro’s have been accumulating.

Emini Volume Trailing Stop Image

Volume Trailing Stop (Emini 135 min)

Lastly, a chart showing how the Volume Trailing Stop held as we tested the 1,060 level during the last upswing. The critical level is now around 1,036 – if we close above this level on the 135 minute chart it shows a bottom might be forming.

Good luck with your Emini trading.