The rally continued this week and the latest Commitment of Traders Report shows the Professionals continued to add to their Short positions.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals -18.2% (short)
The Professionals increased their net Short positions from -16.3% to -18.2% of total open interest. The SP (large contract) Professionals are still more bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals, with the red line in the chart above negative. Back testing shows the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +147
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rose to +147 this week and is over-bought. Easter is coming up and the markets tend to be bullish into Holidays. Plus we have a significant Martin Armstrong cycle turn approaching on 20 April.
We could well see the rally continue or the Emini moving into a trading range for the next week or maybe two. However, the Better COT Oscillator shows there is a widening gap between the Professionals (shorting) and the market (rallying). The will resolve with a cycle turn downwards.
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.