Friday 17 November 2006

Negative Commitment of Traders

Professionals continue to short.  The Emini closed down 0.25 points at 1,404.75 on Friday. Commitment of Traders at highest percentage short since the beginning of the year. See the chart below.

Emini Commitment Traders Image

The Emini opened down 5 points at 1,400.00 and quickly made a low at 1,398.00.  The market then trended slowly higher all day, reached a high of 1,405.25 and closed on the highs at 1,404.75. Range and volume for the day was below average at 7.25 points and 0.9 million contracts traded.

Commitment of Traders

The chart above is a weekly chart of the Emini with my adjusted Commitment of Traders indicator shown as a histogram. This weeks reading was -9.95% down 3.7% from last week's reading. This is the largest percentage short since the beginning of the year. Remember this indicator includes all equity indices (Dow, NASDAQ, S&P500, etc.) and is adjusted to show percentage of open interest.

Couple of other things:

  • Trend oscillators are now neutral
  • Trading Index (TRIN) was very weak at only 3 (on a scale of -100 to 100)
  • Bearish divergence with NASDAQ futures down and Dow futures up
  • Larry Williams Oops pattern today

Good Emini trading tomorrow.



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