Friday 18 April 2008

Profit Taking Volume Pattern

Volume pattern showing professional profit taking on Friday. The Emini gapped up on Friday and we had a large volume (2.0 million contracts), low range (13 points) day.

The large volume and low range indicates a high volume churn day. This was also a "Stopping volume" pattern with the volume higher than the day before but the range was smaller - and the Emini couldn't make it through the 1,400 level. Add in that the market was gapped up as the non-professional traders chased prices and this was a perfect day for professionals to take profits.

I'm not saying that the top of this move is in - just be careful not to jump in late. My medium term forecast is still bullish but that doesn't mean we won't have retracements along the way. Time to watch and see what the market will do next.

TRIN Indicator Update

TRIN Indicator Image

TRIN Indicator (Emini daily)

TRIN indicator signaled a bearish divergence warning signal on Friday. So looking to take profits on the last trade and possibly set up for a reversal trade. Follow this link to read more about the Better TRIN indicators.

Good luck with your Emini trading.

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Filed Under Volume Patterns

Tuesday 15 April 2008

TRIN System Exits With 42 Points

TRIN system exit today. Finally got the exit signal with the Better TRIN Oscillator turning up. Exited at the close with a gain of 42 points.

The chart below shows the TRIN swing system I trade. It is a variation of the TRIN systems included in the Better TRIN Indicator package. I've tried to limit the number of trades taken to reduce drawdowns and capital required to trade.

Emini TRIN System Image

TRIN System (Emini daily)

We might get a pullback Wednesday or Thursday - but my best guess is this is the beginning of the next up leg for the Emini. The TRIN is usually the first oscillator to turn and I'm still waiting for the Hilbert Sine Wave to cross on the daily Emini chart.

Multiple Time Frames & Hilbert Sine Wave

Just had to post these next 2 charts. This doesn't happen often - but when it does the signals are great. Today's low around 1,326 was nailed when we got 2 "End of Trend" signals using the Better Sine Wave. The "End of Trend" signals coincided on the 233 and 699 tick charts that I use for day trading.

Emini Hilbert Sine Wave 1 Image

Hilbert Sine Wave (Emini 233 tick)

Emini Hilbert Sine Wave 2 Image

Hilbert Sine Wave (Emini 699 tick)

Good luck with your Emini trading.

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Filed Under TRIN Indicator

Monday 14 April 2008

Put Call Ratio Oscillator Yet To Turn

Very quiet trading day today. The Emini closed down 4.50 points at 1,331.00 on relatively light volume of 1.5 million contracts. In fact this was a high churn day - with very small range of only 10 points compared to the volume traded.

We could be seeing some early buying but my swing trading oscillators are yet to turn up. Remember these oscillators are non-correlated - all based on different measures of market strength (market breadth, option volume and professional buying).

Emini Oscillators Image

Swing Trading Oscillators (Emini daily)

All 3 oscillators are over-sold. The TRIN is at -72, the Put Call Ratio at -75 and the Smart Money is at -322! The Hilbert Sine Wave on a daily chart is also a day or two away from making a cyclical low turn.

I'm still holding my short position from 1,379 based on a Better TRIN system and waiting for the Better TRIN Oscillator to turn up.

Emini-Watch Contest

A HUGE thank you to EVERYONE that entered the contest. I am lucky to have some great subscribers, with great ideas and valuable insights into trading.

There were 37 contest entries - and the winner is Evan W. who will be receiving the Roy Kelly book shortly. A special thanks to David B. for a great runners up entry too.

I'll be working on the new product over the next few months. I don't want to give too much away but it involves building a more complete trading methodology that will be delivered through a combination of eBook, online video and daily trade reviews.

Thank you again and good luck with your Emini trading.

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Filed Under Put Call Ratio

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