Monday 20 November 2006

Waiting for a Break

Consolidation at the highs today. The Emini closed up 0.50 points at 1,405.25 on Monday. Small range day today with no clear direction. Everybody is expecting the market to tread water this week given the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday.

Emini Range Volume Image

The Emini opened down 1.50 points at 1,404.75 than started to rally after the first 45 minutes. A high of 1,408.00 was reached quickly and this level was exactly the high of last Thursday. Profit taking after lunch saw the Emini drop quickly to the low of 1,401.25 from which it bounced up again to close at 1,405.25. Three round trips! Very hard for the day traders. Range and volume were both below average at 6.75 points and 0.9 million contracts traded - but churn is at quite high levels.

Range and volume indicator

The chart above shows my Secret #1 indicator that combines range and volume. We have now had 3 consecutive days with very low ranges and low volume. Contraction like this is shown with white colored daily bars. Expansion days are shown with red colored daily bars. Leading up to the Thanksgiving Holiday, trading this week is expected to be light. But at some point this contraction will be broken.

If I look at my trend oscillators they have now turned up again and we have the NASDAQ again leading the Dow. But tread carefully at these over-extended levels.

Click here to watch a video tutorial and download free code for the Better Volume Indicator. Good luck with your Emini trading.

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