"Rumors of My Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated"
To quote Mark Twain and apologies for not updating Emini-Watch.com in a very long time. In case you’re intersted there are 3 reasons I haven’t posted:
- During this last rally I have been very out of sync with the market. I love Shorting and the market has refused to break. I’d like to say it’s a conspiracy and the end-of-day rallies have been very suspicious. But that’s a "cop out" – the market is what the market is.
- As a result I’ve been focussed on fixing my worst trading habit – getting in and calling potential market turns too early. You will see the results of this research over the next few weeks, along with release of the Better Momentum indicator.
- Lastly, Vanessa (my wife) & I have been planning a six-month trip. One of the advantages of this will be better time zones for trading (France and Hawaii). Anyway, planning six months away from Sydney has been very time consuming.
OK, enough of my personal trivia. Here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts.
Commitment of Traders
Commitment of Traders: Professionals -9.2% (short)
Professionals have been reducing their Short positions since the beginning of May – from a maximum Short interest of -18.5% to -8.0% two weeks ago. In the last couple of weeks they have increased their Short positions to -9.2% of total open interest.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +78
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now reading +78. This cross of the zero line allows us to mark the bottom of the last down swing at 865 and 4 weeks ago (cyan blue dot). Now we’re starting to reach over-bought levels.
In the last Commitment of Traders update, when the Oscillator was reading -145, I wrote: "We’re now over-sold and the Oscillator has turned up slightly but it’s probably too early to be looking for a major upswing. Let’s wait and see."
Well, that week turned out to be a bottom and the start of a strong 140 point rally. The Commitment of Traders Oscillator does not lie!
US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
US Dollar Index: Professionals +42.8% (long) and Oscillator -102
Professionals continue to be bullish on the US Dollar and have increased net Long positions to +42.8% of total FX open interest. The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has made a double dip and is reading -102. Looks like we might have a Bullish divergence pattern setting up (lower low on the index and higher low on the Oscillator).
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.