Commitment of Traders: Professionals -7.7% (short)
Professionals continue to reduce their Short positions. This week’s reading is -7.7% of total open interest, down from -9.2% last week.
The SP (large contract) Professionals are also becoming less bearish that the ES (Emini contract) Professionals with the difference standing at -4.6% this week (red line above).
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +71
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator dropped from +78 to +71 this week. We’ve turned down before reaching over-bought levels, typically +100. It also looks like we’re making a Bearish Divergence pattern with lower highs on the COT Oscillator and higher highs on the Index.
I take more notice of the Oscillator reading than the Professional reading, so I’m looking for the market to show signs of a reversal. However, the key determinant at the moment seems to be how determined the Fed, Plunge Protection Team, etc. are in supporting the market.
US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
US Dollar Index: Professionals +36.1% (long) and Oscillator -75
Professionals reduced their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. This was a broad move across all the other currencies (Euro, Pound, Aussie, etc.). The net Long position reading stands at +36.1%, down from +42.8% last week.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is now -75 and has turned up. This is looking more like a Bullish divergence pattern with lower lows on the index and higher lows on the Oscillator.
Again, I’m more interested in the Oscillator reading so I’m looking for the US Dollar (and US Treasuries) to start to reverse. There are too many US Dollar bears!
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.