The Commitment of Traders reading has now reached -19.3% – a level we've not seen since March 2001.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals -19.3% (short)
Professionals continued to add to their Short positions last week. The Commitment of Traders is now reading -19.3% of total open interest, down from -17.8% last week.
The Large contract (e.g. SP) Professionals are still more bearish than the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -25.4% (red line above).
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +113
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now rolled over from +133 last week to +113 this week. We're at a "make-or-break" level and Xmas is approaching.
We're sitting just under the 1,115 level but lacking sufficient demand to push through at the moment. We're up in the pre-market on Monday morning but this could be a setup for Professionals to take profits.
Typically the lead-up to Xmas is bullish – not that this year's seasonality pattern has been typical. But fund managers tend to leave large changes in asset allocations until the New Year.
US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
US Dollar Index: Professionals +18.5% (long) and Oscillator +75
After 2 weeks of US Dollar strength, the Professionals have taken some chips off the table. The net Long position has come down from +34.3% to +18.5%. The US Dollar Oscillator has also crossed the zero line and reached +75. Crossing the zero line allows us to identify the low of the last swing – 2 weeks ago.
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.