Latest Commitment of Trader analysis for the S&P500 and US Dollar Index.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals -15.4% (short)
Professionals have started to dial back their Short positions. This week they reduced their net Short positions from -16.5% to -15.4% of total open interest. This is down from a high of -18.5% seven weeks ago.
The SP (large contract) Professionals are still more bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. However, the ES Professionals are beginning to catch up.
The red line in the chart above (which shows the difference between SP and ES) is starting to rise and is at -13.6% this week. Back testing shows the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +75
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has ticked back down again and is at +75 this week. The Oscillator continuing to fall will confirm that a down swing is underway.
US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
US Dollar Index: Professionals +27.3% (long) and Oscillator -72
New chart this week because I talked about the reversal of the "Risk" trade on Tuesday’s video. Quick re-cap, we could be seeing a move towards:
- Short Equities
- Short Emerging Markets
- Short Commodities
- Long US Dollar
- Long US Treasuries
Latest Commitment of Traders data for the US Dollar shows the Professionals are net Long +27.3% of total open interest. The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is at -72 (over-sold) and has turned up. This supports a possible move out of equities and into treasuries.
The CFTC data for the FX futures market does not include the (much larger) swap and spot markets. However, it is representation of what’s going on. To calculate the Professional position I combine data for the US Dollar Index with Yen, Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc, Aussie, etc.
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.