Commitment of Traders: Professionals -14.7% (short)
Professionals continued to add a little to their Short positions this week. This week the Commitment of Traders reading is -14.7% of total open interest, down from -14.4% last week.
The Large contract (e.g. SP) professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -14.4% (red line above).
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -42
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now crossed the zero line and this week the reading is -42. This allows us to back-calculate the highest point of the last upswing – marked with a red ShowMe dot.
This week's Emini action will probably be volatile:
- Professionals are heavily Short
- We're re-testing recent highs towards 1,100
- Low volume up bars on Friday show weak buying
- No Demand and Stopping Volume patterns on the 81 minute chart
- Emini being gapped up in Monday's pre-open
US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
US Dollar Index: Professionals +32.3% (long) and Oscillator -40
Professionals maintained their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading is +32.3% of total open interest. The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now at -40 (ignore the +23 reading on the chart, I was slow to capture the chart image and it includes Monday's trade data).
I still think we're seeing a gradual change in theme from equities, gold, commodities and emerging markets (risk/carry trade) to US Dollar, cash and bonds. The US Dollar index may be starting to see a rounded saucer forming with declining downward momentum.
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.
