Happy New Year to everyone. Hope you had a great holiday season. Really looking forward to 2015 and hope you are too.
I’m not making any specific New Year’s resolutions or grand plans for 2015. But it’s always a good time to re-focus and make sure you’re working on the things that are important to you. Personally that means:
- Making my trading more disciplined
- Eradicating time-wasting activities, and
- Being prepared for the future macro environment
As a day trader you really don’t need to forecast the big picture or even understand what is going on – in as much as it is possible to understand. But moving with the tide, rather than against it, is critical for winning in life. This video shows what I think the tides are and which direction they’re flowing.
I hope you like it. Good luck with your Emini trading in 2015.
One year later, how did the 2015 forecast play out?
- Strength in US dollar, equities and bonds: Yes. The US dollar index strengthened from 92 to 100. US equities strengthened from 2,000 to 2,1000. US 30-year bonds held steady at 155 and 5-year notes rose from 116 to 120.
- Weakness in everything else: Yes. Crude Oil fell from $63 to $37. Copper fell from $2.80 to $2.00. Gold fell from $1,190 to $1,060. Silver fell from $15.90 to $13.80. Euro fell from $1.21 to $1.05. British Pound fell from $1.50 to $1.47. Aussie Dollar fell from $0.79 to $0.70. Canadian Dollar fell from $0.85 to $0.72.
- End game in Abenomics: No. Central bank policy around the world continues to get nuttier and nuttier. The Bank of Japan is now buying equity ETFs directly. Looks like we’ll have to wait even longer to see how QE and direct market intervention plays out.