Commitment of Traders Still Bullish
Commitment of Traders latest charts.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.9% (long)
The professionals (large SP contract) reduced their long positions marginally last week. Their exposure decreased from 2.2% to 1.9% of total open interest.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +81
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator inched up to +81 last week. The week before it was at +80. We're close to over-bought but the oscillator is yet to roll over.
I remain bullish medium term, especially since we broke 1,400 and the professionals are still net long. The danger now is that we're in an uptrend and the Commitment of Traders Oscillator will signal short too early.
My best guess is that the Emini is likely to keep pushing higher, maybe erratically. But a low range weekly bar will indicate professional profit taking and a likely top for this cycle.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
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Commitment of Traders Becoming Over-Bought
Apologies for posting this article so late - I took a break from trading last week. Anyway, here are the latest Commitment of Traders charts.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals +2.2% (long)
The professionals (large SP contract) added to their long positions last week. Their exposure increased from 1.8% to 2.2% of total open interest.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +80
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now reached +80, up from +42 the week before. This is getting close to over-bought levels but shows no signs of turning down right now.
The Emini is finding resistance at 1,400 and this week we have the FOMC announcement plus a large number of economic releases. Although I'm still bullish medium term, the volume traded over the last 2 days has been very light and indicates a lack of demand. We will need a large volume range day to break 1,400 convincingly and show the uptrend still has some way to go.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
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Commitment of Traders and Professionals Bullish
Commitment of Traders weekly charts below.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.8% (long)
This week the professionals (large SP contract) increased their long positions from 1.4% to 1.8% of total open interest.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +42
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator rose from +38 to +42 this week. Last week I said "if we survive any test of 1,300 and get a bounce this week it will be a very bullish development." I'm sticking with my medium term bullish forecast.
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.
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