Commitment of Traders Charts – Sunday 13 May 2012 (16:41)

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Latest Commitment of Traders data is out – and we continue to get Bearish divergence patterns. Plus the Crash Warning signal popped up. I do my best to explain in the video what I think is going on.

I present this more as a curiosity than fact. I rely less and less on the Commitment of Traders data – partly because it’s weekly and partly because figuring out whether the Professionals are hedging or trend following is only possible in retrospect.

Still, it’s another data point. The 1,340 level will be key this week. Let’s see if it holds.

Don’t miss: Commitment of Traders – How to Follow the Professionals

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Commitment of Traders video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Commitment of Traders Charts – Sunday 15 Apr 2012 (17:26)

If you appreciate these free Emini trading videos then hit the Google +1 button.

Discussion of where we are and the latest Commitment of Traders charts. I’m less of a fan of the Commitment of Traders data than I used to be – the data is weekly and how do you know when the Professionals are hedging or trend following? However, the recent divergence in equities is worth commenting on.

More here on analysing the Commitment of Traders weekly data.

Jason S. makes it 2 in 2 days …

“OSOK. 1374 – 1370. I couldn’t find a trade to start with and knew Michigan Confidence was coming up, although I had a bearish bias. The CPI numbers were all in line earlier so no shocks to the market. The market looked like it was waiting for Michigan Confidence. The numbers were behind consensus which helped my bearish bias plus the series of lower highs on 1500 chart.

I wanted to sell the breakout below 1376 but don’t like chasing that way. When the 1500 chart came into PB with Amateur bar at the 1376 breakout level at 09.13am, and 2 Rambo bars into resistance on the 500 chart, that was good enough to sell. When it started dropping, I couldn’t believe it. I thought surely not, Mr T will never believe me.

Barry, I’m really enjoying using your indicators and following your work. Obviously my successful week has been great and helped. Seriously a big big thank you for everything you do on this. I couldn’t be doing this without you.”

Jason, for that you get your own icon (for those not in the know, Jason Statham of Transporter and Snatch fame).

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Commitment of Traders video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Commitment of Traders Update – January 2011 (10:06)

It’s been a long while since I’ve talked about the Commitment of Traders data. Well this weekend an interesting signal popped up on the Euro – more details in the video.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Commitment of Traders video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Got the bounce and now the market has Exhaustion buying volume at the end of the day. We're coming into Memorial Day and markets tend to be strong into holiday weekends. So I'm expecting the Professionals to use Friday to take profits with some range trading. As always, trade your setups and don't over-think the market.

If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Charts and Commitment of Traders video on the website.

Emini Charts and Commitment of Traders (8:58)

And here's another screen shot of the Emini 4,500 tick chart. Shows the "End of Trend" warning signal with Exhaustion selling followed by the rally.

Emini "End of Trend" Setup (4,500 tick)

I've updated the Commitment of Traders feature article with new code using the in-built TradeStation data. You can read more here:

Closed the gap and got the cyclical turn I was looking for on the lower time frame Emini charts (45, 81 and 135 minute). I'm looking for a bounce on Monday morning after some initial weakness and then for a re-test of the 1,125 level – either Monday or Tuesday.

My hypothesis is that we're starting another leg up – possibly the last leg before a major correction. I think the next cyclical turn on the daily Emini chart will be very significant.

If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini and Commitment of Traders videos on the website.

Latest Emini and Commitment of Traders Charts (9:25)

Just an update of the 81 minute Emini chart where we found the cyclical low and potential support at 1,120.

Emini Cycle Low and Support (Emini 81 minute)

And here is the latest Commitment of Traders chart with Professionals net Long at +2.4% of total open interest and the Oscillator over-sold at -128.

Emini Commitment of Traders (Emini weekly)

I missed the last couple of days trading while travelling to New Zealand. Anyway, settled now for the next 3 weeks. Bit apprehensive about trading in this time zone – not easy. Good luck with your Emini trading next week.

Quiet start to the week. I think everybody's "hanging" to see Goldman's Blankfein and the "Fabulous Fab" tomorrow. I know I can't wait! Feel like a giddy schoolgirl before a Justin Bieber concert

Anyway, Emini topped out at 1,216 during the morning and then dropped below support at 1,212 in the afternoon. However, the Professionals immediately stepped in and we didn't fall by much. We've got Exhaustion Selling volume signals on Better Momentum and I think we might see a rally tomorrow – after we've found support early on.

TRIN Oscillator is over-sold and if we get any strength I'll be taken out of my Short position. Don't get me wrong – I don't like this rally. All I'm saying is I won't be surprised if we break to new highs tomorrow.

Darn – I always get myself into trouble with calls like this. Must be the excitement of tomorrow. I'll take my trades as they set up, whether they're Long or Short.

If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Commitment of Traders video on the website.

Emini Trading & Commitment of Traders Update (9:15)

The Professionals are net Long 2.5% of total open interest and the Commitment of Traders Oscillator has dropped to +50.

Commitment of Traders (Emini weekly)

Good luck with your Emini trading and see you on "the hill".

Quick Commitment of Traders update video. Professionals are net Short 0.4% of total open interest. Apologies, in the video I say 0.7% for some strange reason. Duh.

If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Commitment of Traders video on the website.

Commitment of Traders Update (7:19)

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has also reached +140 and rolled over. Last week's reading was +145. This means we should see some weakness going forward.

Commitment of Traders (Emini weekly)

Both Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge and Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker posted the series of William K. Black interview videos online. That was great to see – I'm glad I'm in good (i.e. rebellious) company. Also managed to beat them to the post by a couple of hours. Ha ha.

Let's hope for a more interesting trading day on Tuesday and good luck with your Emini trading.

Commitment of Traders numbers are out and the Professionals flipped to net Short by 1.3% of total open interest. This has triggered my Crash warning signal which needs:

1. Market to make a new 52 week high, followed by
2. Professionals flipping from Long to Short

Please don't get over-excited about this. Just wanted to share the analysis with you and the video has more detail on how successful this pattern has been historically.

If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Commitment of Traders video on the website.

Commitment of Traders and Crash Warning Signal (6:44)

Good luck with your Emini trading next week.

A couple of weeks ago I posted about the differences between Emini (ES) and large contract (SP) Commitment of Traders data. The conclusion was that the Emini is almost entirely a day trading vehicle and the SP contract is used for position trading. As a result, for longer term analysis, the SP Commitment of Traders data is more useful.

You can find that article on Commitment of Traders here.

This weekend I've got a video on Commitment of Traders and hedging versus trend following. Do the Professionals primarily use the futures market to hedge their positions or trade with the market trend? In essence, should you follow or fade the Professionals?

If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Commitment of Traders video on the website.

Commitment of Traders: Hedging vs Trend Following (10:37)

TRIN Oscillator turned down Friday, so we're out of our Long position. We're "sitting in the pocket" and absolutely critical couple of days. We've still got to make a "Pull Back" and "End of Trend" warning signal on the 27, 45 and 81 minute charts. And we're a day or so away from a cycle turn on the daily time frame.

If we have a trend down day on Tuesday or Wednesday then we're off to the races and testing 1,040. Let's see how this pans out. Good luck with your trading next week.

Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.

First of all the Commitment of Traders numbers:

• Professionals now only net Short 1.7% of open interest
• Commitment of Traders Oscillator over-sold at -163

The video shows Wednesday's short setup and Friday's "End of Trend" warning signal on the 13,500 tick chart. However, going forward have we seen enough exhaustion price and volume activity to signal a bottom? The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is certainly bullish and setting up for a low this week.

If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the emini charts & commitment of traders video on the website.

Some Emini Charts & Commitment of Traders Update (8:51)

I think we'll see good tradeable swings as the market re-tests Friday's low – and I'll take whatever trades setup. Good luck with your Emini trading next week.