TRIN System Exits With 42 Points
TRIN system exit today. Finally got the exit signal with the Better TRIN Oscillator turning up. Exited at the close with a gain of 42 points.
The chart below shows the TRIN swing system I trade. It is a variation of the TRIN systems included in the Better TRIN Indicator package. I've tried to limit the number of trades taken to reduce drawdowns and capital required to trade.
TRIN System (Emini daily)
We might get a pullback Wednesday or Thursday - but my best guess is this is the beginning of the next up leg for the Emini. The TRIN is usually the first oscillator to turn and I'm still waiting for the Hilbert Sine Wave to cross on the daily Emini chart.
Multiple Time Frames & Hilbert Sine Wave
Just had to post these next 2 charts. This doesn't happen often - but when it does the signals are great. Today's low around 1,326 was nailed when we got 2 "End of Trend" signals using the Better Sine Wave. The "End of Trend" signals coincided on the 233 and 699 tick charts that I use for day trading.
Hilbert Sine Wave (Emini 233 tick)
Hilbert Sine Wave (Emini 699 tick)
Good luck with your Emini trading.
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TRIN Indicator Problems with TradeStation Build 1615
TRIN Indicator problems with the latest version of TradeStation 8.3 - Build 1615. TradeStation has just released an updated version, called Build 1615. Unfortunately this build has a number of problems AND TradeStation is upgrading their data farm this weekend. The result is a lot of angst for TradeStation users.
First of all, if you have NOT upgraded to the latest version and are still using Build 1419 - stick with it and don't upgrade yet.
The problem with the latest TradeStation build has to do with some combinations of multi-data charts that cause analysis techniques to be turned off after receiving archive data. The Better TRIN indicators use these multi-data charts and problems arise when you try and add any other indicator onto a Better TRIN indicator chart.
The solution is to rollback to TradeStation Build 1419. TradeStation has released a further upgrade - Build 1630 - but judging from the forums, this has even more problems with it. Here's how I suggest you rollback to Build 1419:
- When you rollback you will not be able to access any charts or EasyLanguage files that have been written in Build 1615, so
- In Build 1615 back up any EasyLanguage indicators and systems that you have developed since upgrading to Build 1615
- Also make notes of the indicators and systems you have added to any new workspaces or charts since upgrading
- Go to Program Files > TradeStation 8.3 (Build 1419) > Program > find ORPlat
- First, right click on ORPlat and Create Shortcut, then move this shortcut to your desktop or where you launch programs from
- Then, double click on ORPlat and when you are asked to Activate Build 1419 click 'Yes'
- I found I also had to re-start my computer to get things running correctly
You will now be running the stable version of TradeStation and the Better TRIN indicators will work as normal. Re-create any new charts that you added under Build 1615. I suggest waiting for the next TradeStation build before upgrading.
Remember, TradeStaiton is also upgrading their data farms this weekend and so downloading data may or may not work for you. You can still work offline but will not have current data. You can either wait for TradeStation to finish their upgrade or try to use another data server by following File > Preferences > TradeStation Network.
Despite these occasional problems with TradeStatation I am still a big fan. I think EasyLanguage is the easiest programming language to use and the functionality of TradeStation is superb. The software is very sophisticated and I suppose you have to expect these occasional problems.
Emini Update
We got the large range break down expected on Friday. I'm still short from 1,379 based on a Better TRIN system and waiting for the Better TRIN Oscillator to turn up. Good luck with your Emini trading.
Emini-Watch Contest
The contest will be kept open until after this weekend. Click on the button below to enter or follow this contest link.
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TRIN Indicator Deja Vu
TRIN indicator discussion today. But before we get to that, just a quick update on the possible trend line breakout discussed after Thursday's close.
Trend Lines (Emini 81 minute)
As expected the employment numbers did spark the Emini into life. However, the breaks above 1,380 (one before the open and one around noon) were both on low volume and couldn't hold. We've now closed below the lower trend line and the green bars on the chart above indicate we're in a down trend.
The Emini might try again to break above 1,380 but the TRIN indicator suggests the market is weak. See below.
TRIN Indicator (Emini daily)
It was only 10 days ago that we saw the very same TRIN pattern:
- Better TRIN Indicator shows bearish divergence (white dot)
- Doji candlestick pattern showing indecision the next day
- Better TRIN Oscillator over-bought (above +80)
And 10 days ago this pattern led to a 38 point slump before the 1 April rally.
TRIN Indicator Divergence (Performance Report)
Back testing the TRIN divergence pattern shows good stats with a profit factor or 3.3 and 2:1 win-to-loss ratio.
TRIN Indicator Divergence (Equity Curve)
And the equity curve shows consistent performance. I'm not a big fan of seasonality, but we're also coming into the 15 April US tax filing "window" that usually sees profit taking (when the market is up!). My best guess is that the Emini will fail this time to break 1,380 and instead we'll test 1,360.
More information about the Better TRIN Indicator here.
Emini-Watch Contest
Just a quick reminder that the contest is still going. I'll keep it open until after next weekend. Click on the button below to enter or follow this contest link.
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TRIN Indicator Warning
TRIN indicator bearish divergence warning signal. It was gratifying to see the Emini break 1,360 today, particularly given my bullish medium-term forecast posted on Friday. However, we didn't reach 1,365.50 and close the gap from 28 February before some profit taking set in.
We're coming into a Hilbert Sine Wave cyclical turning point (down) on the daily chart and all my oscillators are starting to get over-bought. The first oscillator to turn is usually the Better TRIN Oscillator and the first sign of weakness can be a bearish divergence warning signal like we got today (see the chart below).
TRIN Indicator (Emini daily)
Remember this isn't a forecast of a down day tomorrow, just to be prepared and watching for any topping out action. Good luck with your Emini trading.
Friday 7 March 2008TRIN and Other Oscillators
Latest TRIN, Put Call Ratio and Smart Money oscillator chart shown below. In Wednesday's post I said I was expecting "another push down". Both Thursday and Friday were down and now we've breached 1,300.
TRIN and Other Oscillators (Emini daily)
My 3 swing trading oscillators (TRIN, Put Call Ratio and Smart Money Index) are all over-sold with readings of -98, -274 and -153. But none have started to turn up yet.
The TRIN oscillator is usually the first to turn and there was maybe some hope with Friday's adjusted TRIN reading of -24. The adjusted TRIN usually ranges from -100 to +100 and so a reading of -24 is only mildly bearish. In addition, the Better TRIN is showing a bullish divergence pattern.
Volume on Friday was also very high at 3.1 million contracts traded. High volume at lows usually indicates panic selling by the public and professional accumulation.
I would normally find this setup with over-sold indicators, high volume and TRIN divergence bullish. Suggesting that we might put in a significant low in the next 2 days. However, I've just looked at the latest Commitment of Traders numbers - and they are not pretty. I'll update my Commitment of Traders charts in the next post.
You can read more about the TRIN indicators here. Good luck with your Emini trading.
Wednesday 27 February 2008TRIN Indicator Divergence
TRIN indicator divergence today. The Emini closed down 2.50 points at 1,380.25 on volume of 1.8 million contracts, the lowest volume of the last 6 days.
The biggest feature of today's trading was the large volume spike before 10am that pushed the Emini up 16 points to 1,390 - the high for the day. This felt like blow off volume to me.
TRIN Indicator Divergence (Emini daily)
The chart above shows the Better TRIN Oscillator is reaching over-bought levels at +90. In addition, we have a bearish divergence pattern on the end-of-day TRIN value. The Emini has made a new high but the Better TRIN made a lower high at +95. The Better TRIN indicator signals these signs of weakness with a white dot (circled).
The TRIN indicator divergence is a sign of weakness, not necessarily a signal to go short immediately. However, it forewarns of a possible down turn in the Better TRIN Oscillator. I've marked 3 previous instances where this happened on the chart above.
In addition to the TRIN indicator there are a number of other signs of weakness:
- Put Call Ratio Oscillator has turned down
- Hilbert Sine Wave has turned down on daily and 135 minute time frames
- Bond market is below it's peak 24 days ago and the Bond oscillator is over-bought
- No Demand volume pattern on the Emini daily chart
- US Dollar is weakening versus the Japanese Yen
Going forward, the 1,375 support level on the Emini will be critical.
Bluebird Powder Day in Japan
On a personal note - back from 10 days snowboarding in Japan. This place never fails to deliver. It's not a secret any more, but I wish it was (Niseko on the island of Hokkaido).
Good luck with your Emini trading.
Friday 8 February 2008TRIN Indicator System Takes Profits
The TRIN indicator turned up on Friday and signaled to take profits on the Better TRIN System. Short entries were made last week between 1,355 and 1,379 and profits were taken today at 1,330.
TRIN Indicator Turns Up
The chart above show Friday's action resulted in a low volume, inside bar and doji candlestick pattern - all signaling indecision. In addition we have possible support around 1,320.
I'll be watching Monday's action for a high volume break above or below Thursday's range. Good luck with your Emini trading.
Wednesday 9 January 2008Emini Low Volume Test and TRIN System Update
Low volume test on the Emini today and the Better TRIN system reverses. First the low volume test chart.
Emini Low Volume Test
The 81 minute Emini chart above shows the volume climax we got towards the end of yesterday. Panic selling by the public was absorbed by the Professionals. Today we tested the 1,393 level but this time there was lower volume - a low volume test. The Emini bounced from this level and the bottom of this down swing could now be in.
Emini Signal: Better TRIN System
Meanwhile, the Better TRIN Oscillator turned up and signaled to take profits and reverse position on the Better TRIN System. We were expecting this after Monday's Emini oscillator update. Yesterday, we got a bullish divergence warning signal but waited for the actual Emini signal today.
Emini Equity Curve: Better TRIN System
We're making new equity highs on the Better TRIN System, which gives me greater confidence in trading it. Good luck with your trading.
Friday 4 January 2008Trading Index (TRIN) - Extreme Negative Reading
Extreme reading on the Trading Index (TRIN) today. The adjusted TRIN reading was -256, a level not seen since the end of February sell-off last year. You can read about the adjustments I make to the raw Trading Index values here.
The Emini didn't hold the 1,450 level discussed on Thursday. I entered a long trade in after-hours at 1,456. The trade immediately went in my favor, up 7 points, so I raised my stop to just under break-even. Then the jobs report came out and my stop got hit. Unbelievably I got positive slippage and ended up with a loss of only 0.75 points.
Emini and Extreme TRIN Reading
The chart above shows the extreme Trading Index (TRIN) reading of -256 and that the Better TRIN System is still holding a short trade from 1,490.
What's the best way to trade these extreme TRIN readings? I tested a simple system of going long the Emini at different TRIN levels. The entry is the next open after an extreme reading and then exiting 3 days later.
The chart below shows the Profit Factor at different TRIN levels, ranging from 0 to -300. We get a peak profitability around -220, but below that the system is unprofitable (profit factor < 1). So buying these extreme TRIN levels, expecting the market to bounce straight away, does not work consistently.
Buying Extreme TRIN Reading at Next Open
Instead of entering the market straight away, let's wait for some confirmation. The chart below shows the Profit Factor when we wait for a break above the prior day's high, after an extreme TRIN reading. Again the trade hold is 3 days.
In this case the shape is similar - a drop off in profitability below -180. But there is also a peak at -270 on the adjusted TRIN. In addition, I've excluded the results below -280 because there are only 2 trades (at -290 and -300) which are both profitable.
Buying Extreme TRIN Reading at Break Above High
Based on these back-tests, it is not a sure thing that we'll get a bounce in the Emini on Monday just because of the extreme selling and TRIN reading we saw on Friday. Best to wait for a break above the prior day's high. In the meantime, the Better TRIN system is still short. Good luck with your trading.
Thursday 27 December 2007TRIN Emini System Update
TRIN Emini system exits long trade at the close today.
TRIN Emini System
Yesterday we got a bearish divergence signal on the Better TRIN indicator (see bottom pane of chart above). It would have been a perfect trade if we'd exited at yesterday's close, but we had to wait for the TRIN Oscillator to turn down for confirmation. The trade still managed a 23 point or $1,150 profit per Emini contract.
And thank you to Robert for the kind words in his email today:
"I am very much enjoying getting to know the Better TRIN - it's wonderful and is transforming my trading. You really should name it the Taylor Oscillator."
Apologies for the shameless promotion.
Start of Emini down leg?
The TRIN Emini system has also now signaled short at today's close. The 1,475 to 1,485 gap left from last Friday's Emini action looks like it might get filled. Other confirming indicators include:
- Cycle down turn on 135 minute Hilbert Sine Wave chart
- Over-bought readings for Smart Money and Put-Call Ratio Oscillators
- Emini over-valued versus Bonds and complex top formed in Bonds 20 days ago
- US dollar weakening versus Japanese Yen and crude oil testing $100 per barrel
Good luck with your trading.
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