Monday 14 April 2008

Put Call Ratio Oscillator Yet To Turn

Very quiet trading day today. The Emini closed down 4.50 points at 1,331.00 on relatively light volume of 1.5 million contracts. In fact this was a high churn day - with very small range of only 10 points compared to the volume traded.

We could be seeing some early buying but my swing trading oscillators are yet to turn up. Remember these oscillators are non-correlated - all based on different measures of market strength (market breadth, option volume and professional buying).

Emini Oscillators Image

Swing Trading Oscillators (Emini daily)

All 3 oscillators are over-sold. The TRIN is at -72, the Put Call Ratio at -75 and the Smart Money is at -322! The Hilbert Sine Wave on a daily chart is also a day or two away from making a cyclical low turn.

I'm still holding my short position from 1,379 based on a Better TRIN system and waiting for the Better TRIN Oscillator to turn up.

Emini-Watch Contest

A HUGE thank you to EVERYONE that entered the contest. I am lucky to have some great subscribers, with great ideas and valuable insights into trading.

There were 37 contest entries - and the winner is Evan W. who will be receiving the Roy Kelly book shortly. A special thanks to David B. for a great runners up entry too.

I'll be working on the new product over the next few months. I don't want to give too much away but it involves building a more complete trading methodology that will be delivered through a combination of eBook, online video and daily trade reviews.

Thank you again and good luck with your Emini trading.

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Filed Under Put Call Ratio

Saturday 12 April 2008

Commitment of Traders Weekly Update

Commitment of Traders weekly update charts below.

Commitment of Traders Image

Commitment of Traders: Professionals +1.4% (long)

The professionals (large SP contract) are still net long. Their long positions account for 1.4% of open interest, down from +1.9% last week and +2.3% the week before.

Commitment of Traders Oscillator Image

Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +38

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has risen slightly this week to +38, from +35 last week.

The Emini got hit hard on Friday, but as long as we stay above 1,258 (last swing low) I'm sticking with my longer term bullish outlook. In fact, if we survive any test of 1,300 and get a bounce this week it will be a very bullish development. The next Hilbert Sine Wave cross on a daily time frame is a few days away and will be key.

The Commitment of Traders Oscillator is a longer term Emini indicator and designed to highlight broad trends. The Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday. Follow this link for a full explanation of this Commitment of Traders analysis.

Emini-Watch Contest

The contest is coming to a close, but if you'd still like to enter click on the button below or follow this contest link.

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Filed Under Commitment of Traders

Friday 11 April 2008

TRIN Indicator Problems with TradeStation Build 1615

TRIN Indicator problems with the latest version of TradeStation 8.3 - Build 1615. TradeStation has just released an updated version, called Build 1615. Unfortunately this build has a number of problems AND TradeStation is upgrading their data farm this weekend. The result is a lot of angst for TradeStation users.

First of all, if you have NOT upgraded to the latest version and are still using Build 1419 - stick with it and don't upgrade yet.

The problem with the latest TradeStation build has to do with some combinations of multi-data charts that cause analysis techniques to be turned off after receiving archive data. The Better TRIN indicators use these multi-data charts and problems arise when you try and add any other indicator onto a Better TRIN indicator chart.

The solution is to rollback to TradeStation Build 1419. TradeStation has released a further upgrade - Build 1630 - but judging from the forums, this has even more problems with it. Here's how I suggest you rollback to Build 1419:

  • When you rollback you will not be able to access any charts or EasyLanguage files that have been written in Build 1615, so
  • In Build 1615 back up any EasyLanguage indicators and systems that you have developed since upgrading to Build 1615
  • Also make notes of the indicators and systems you have added to any new workspaces or charts since upgrading
  • Go to Program Files > TradeStation 8.3 (Build 1419) > Program > find ORPlat
  • First, right click on ORPlat and Create Shortcut, then move this shortcut to your desktop or where you launch programs from
  • Then, double click on ORPlat and when you are asked to Activate Build 1419 click 'Yes'
  • I found I also had to re-start my computer to get things running correctly

You will now be running the stable version of TradeStation and the Better TRIN indicators will work as normal. Re-create any new charts that you added under Build 1615. I suggest waiting for the next TradeStation build before upgrading.

Remember, TradeStaiton is also upgrading their data farms this weekend and so downloading data may or may not work for you. You can still work offline but will not have current data. You can either wait for TradeStation to finish their upgrade or try to use another data server by following File > Preferences > TradeStation Network.

Despite these occasional problems with TradeStatation I am still a big fan. I think EasyLanguage is the easiest programming language to use and the functionality of TradeStation is superb. The software is very sophisticated and I suppose you have to expect these occasional problems.

Emini Update

We got the large range break down expected on Friday. I'm still short from 1,379 based on a Better TRIN system and waiting for the Better TRIN Oscillator to turn up. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini-Watch Contest

The contest will be kept open until after this weekend. Click on the button below to enter or follow this contest link.

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Filed Under TRIN Indicator

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