This is what happens when I have too much coffee and a bee in my bonnet about the Amateurs. Also, for some reason I'm ranting about Wyckoff "Springs". Who knows.
If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Volume Patterns video on the website.
HIGH DEF VIDEO – MAY TAKE 15 SECONDS TO LOAD
Volume Patterns: Amateur Psychology (11:12)
And here's a screen shot of the Emini 500 tick chart. Shows the Amateurs getting wrong-footed at every cycle turn after the top in made. RAMBO after RAMBO signal.
Contract rollover today and some data differences between the 500 tick and other charts – just recorded the video in the middle of TradeStation re-calculating data.
And a huge thank you to all the NinjaTrader beta testing volunteers. I got over 100 responses – wow! So apologies if I didn't respond personally to every email.
Heads up and good luck tomorrow.
Follow this link to a feature article with videos about trading with Volume Patterns.
Stopping Volume patterns all over the markets today. This shows the trend moves we've seen over the past week and a half are slowing and some initial profit taking is going on. We've seen Stopping Volume patterns in:
Stock market indices (Emini, Dow and NASDAQ)
10yr and 30yr Bonds
British Pound, and
Crude oil
But the Emini is at a critical juncture – sitting under cyclical support. Not good.
If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Volume Patterns video on the website.
HIGH DEF VIDEO – MAY TAKE 15 SECONDS TO LOAD
Stopping Volume Patterns (13:54)
And here's Stopping Volume patterns (St) on the daily charts of multiple markets.
Woo hoo! Finally. Are we seeing some sanity return? Some willingness to restore fair play in the markets? In case you live under a rock: Goldman Sachs has been charged with fraud by the SEC. Accused of misrepresenting the facts to investors.
OK. Let's get this straight. I have no problem with Goldman shorting the property market. They're smart guys and they saw it coming. Good for them. But if you lie to investors about what you're selling … we'll see what happens in due course.
Now let's talk about market manipulation. Do the Professionals manipulate the market? Do the Professionals manipulate the Emini market? Time for brutal honesty: You're a sore loser.
Yes, the Professionals know where the resting stops are and yes, they run those stops. They gap the market up and down in the after-market while it's thinly traded and it doesn't cost them much to do so. They drive the market up to fake a breakout when there's not much overhead resistance and then slam it down in the opposite direction.
They can do this because they've got the capital, they're smart, they do their research, they're better connected, they have better information, they work hard at it and if they're no good – they get carried out on a stretcher.
So what you going to do about it? Concrete suggestion #1: Follow the average trade size – because that way you'll see the Professionals at work, you'll see the Amateurs stumbling around and you'll get a deeper insight into what is really going on.
I'm sorry, but if all you want to do is analyse price and don't spend the time analyzing volume, then … well Emini-Watch is not for you.
OK, enough ranting. Wednesday's video on Exhaustion volume showed Professional selling into the Close. Do you think there might have been a Goldman rumor? Huge stories like that don't just come out of the blue. Today's video shows the Professionals taking profits and getting set on Thursday – followed by today's 2% sell-off.
If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Volume Patterns video on the website.
HIGH DEF VIDEO – MAY TAKE 15 SECONDS TO LOAD
Volume Patterns & Professionals Getting Out (10:09)
And here's the screen shot of the Emini 4,500 tick chart showing Professionals exiting on Wednesday and Thursday. Nothing really special about the Better Pro Am indicator – just a smart little algorithm for measuring average trade size.
Volume Patterns & Professionals Getting Out (Emini 4,500 tick)
Have a great weekend. I'll be studying my Emini charts – I'm pumped after Friday!
Follow this link to a feature article with videos about trading with Volume Patterns.
Rather long video today but I wanted to respond to reader questions about Professional/Amateur bars and the different tick charts I use.
Plus we had quadruple "End of Trend" warning signals on the 500, 1,500, 4,500 and 13,500 tick charts – signaled today's top at 1176. More a curiosity than a regular setup pattern.
If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Volume Patterns video on the website.
HIGH DEF VIDEO – MAY TAKE 15 SECONDS TO LOAD
Volume Patterns – How I Interpret Professional and Amateur Bars (16:27)
0:00 Better Sine Wave and "End of Trend" warning signals
3:00 Tick chart time frames I follow and why
6:10 Interpretation of Professional and Amateur bars
And here's the quadruple "End of Trend" warning signal chart. Uncanny.
Quadruple "End of Trend" Warning Signals – 25 March 2010
Good luck with your Emini trading on Friday.
Follow this link to a feature article with videos about trading with Volume Patterns.
Nothing much to talk about today. Just a quick follow up video – going on and on and on about Exhaustion Volume. Promise, this is the last one for a while.
In fact, I've got something completely different planned for tomorrow. Stay tuned.
If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Volume Patterns Follow Up video on the website.
HIGH DEF VIDEO – MAY TAKE 15 SECONDS TO LOAD
Volume Patterns: Exhaustion Volume Follow Up – 23 Mar 2010 (7:01)
Good luck with your Emini trading.
Follow this link to a feature article with videos about trading with Volume Patterns.
The video below discusses Monday's strength in the Emini. My view is that it was the result of Exhaustion Selling Volume on Friday. After which all the sellers has sold and the Shorts had "run out of bullets".
Monday's rally did have Professional profit taking into the highs and Exhaustion Buying Volume. We've got a significant cyclical turning point approaching on the highest time frame chart (40,500 tick) and Monday's activity might persuade Amateurs to join in. Let's see how this plays out.
If you're reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Volume Patterns video on the website.
HIGH DEF VIDEO – MAY TAKE 15 SECONDS TO LOAD
Volume Patterns: Exhaustion Volume – 22 Mar 2010 (10:55)
Good luck with your Emini trading this week.
Follow this link to a feature article with videos about trading with Volume Patterns.
The Emini is now up 13 out of the last 14 days – and I'm biting my lip so hard it's turning blue! Anyway, a couple of charts today on Volume Patterns and the classic Double Top.
Volume analysis has really added a new dimension to my understanding of what's happening at a Double Top. I hope the charts below show what I'm talking about.
Volume Patterns: Double Top (Emini 1,500 tick)
First, the 1,500 tick chart. You can see the first top was made as we overshot the "End of Trend" warning signal. There were a whole series of Professional (blue) up bars – showing profit taking and reversing positions as new highs were made.
Then the second top was made with a couple of Amateur (yellow) bars – showing the Amateurs getting in late and hoping the Emini was going to make new highs. It didn't, that marked the top, the Emini reversed and spent the rest of the day in a down trend.
You can also see the Bearish Divergence patterns (two white dots) on the Double Top. This shows there was less and less buying pressure after we'd had Exhaustion buying volume (large Cyan blue dots) earlier in the day.
Volume Patterns: Double Top (Emini 500 tick)
When we drop down to the 500 tick chart you can see the Professional (blue) then Amateur (yellow) bars as the Double Top is made.
You can also see the cluster of Profit Taking (PT) volume patterns on the first top – showing Professionals are getting out and reversing. Then on the second top you have a couple of RAMBO (R) volume patterns showing the Amateurs are buying the Break Out and might get reversed on.
So, volume patterns with Professional and Amateur bars giving a greater understanding of what's going on at a classic Double Top.
Good luck with your Emini trading.
Follow this link to a feature article with videos about trading with Volume Patterns.
Just a couple of charts after a very quiet day today. We've now had 5 Professional distribution volume patterns at the 1,100 level.
Professional Distribution Volume Patterns (Emini daily)
We broke down out of the congestion zone and we've now come back to "test" the upward sloping trend line. Some traders call this a "kiss" as price comes back to touch the trend line and then "kisses it goodbye" – if it breaks to the downside.
Today's volume was also very low at only 0.6 million contracts traded showing No Demand. Plus a Doji candlestick pattern showing indecision.
Trend Line Congestion Resolved (Emini daily)
Tomorrow we're likely to have a larger range day and I'm going to be watching for signs of more profit taking and maybe the start of a down trend.
Good luck with your Emini trading. Follow this link to the "No Demand" volume pattern article.
Follow this link to a feature article with videos about trading with Volume Patterns.
Woo hoo! Finally. Are we seeing some sanity return? Some willingness to restore fair play in the markets? In case you live under a rock: Goldman Sachs has been charged with fraud by the SEC. Accused of misrepresenting the facts to investors.
