This is the 13 September 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series. A tough week: the Emini bounced around all over the place, and the two big moves of the week, the 10-Year falling off a cliff and Crude running to 104, both happened without the setup I trade from. The Emini bounce came with no blue Professional bars at the lows, so my read is a retest first, and if 7600 goes we could have a rout on our hands across the Emini, the currencies and the 10-Year together. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
TL;DR - This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini: the bounce was not a proper bottom, expect a retest of the lows. Last week’s Signal Short on the 13,500 tick bar chart played out, but the low printed no Big Pro Bars, no exhaustion buy and no bullish divergence, and the Professionals have come back in short on the retrace. The daily chart is still in an uptrend and I am still in the camp that this is weakness on the way to new highs, but 7600 has to hold. Break the tight support levels under the squeeze patterns and this thing travels.
- Crude at 104 has no Professional sellers at the highs yet, but 107 is the wall. The March and April high at 107 printed Big Pro Bars, an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence, and big ranges get tested on both sides before they resolve. The 460-minute chart already shows blue Professional bars taking profits up here. A stop run above 107 followed by a rapid reversal is the trap to watch.
- The US Dollar move is not over. Big Pro Bars turned the Euro down from the highs and the CPI volatility has not resolved that. The Pound is still in a downtrend with no Professionals at the lows, and the Aussie Dollar would be fighting the trend if it strengthens. If the Euro goes, it takes both with it.
Macro Setup This Week
CPI was the week’s scheduled event and it was a nothingburger for the Emini, which gapped down and then gapped back up into Friday to leave an island reversal on the daily chart with nothing behind it in volume or momentum. The real action was in rates. After two or three weeks of everybody shouting about rates while the 10-Year chart did nothing, the last two weeks broke decisively lower out of a big squeeze pattern, so rates are higher and the 10-Year has fallen off a cliff. If that continues, it could finally pull the equities market down with it.
Crude ran the other way, up to 104 and within reach of the 107 high from March and April. The US Dollar strengthened again against the Euro and the Pound, while Copper was hit by tariff news after a lovely uptrend. Across the board this week the Big Pro Bars were scarce, which is why the plan is less clear than usual: the Professionals look like they are waiting for the move to happen before they step in.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES - Emini S&P 500 Futures: No Pros at the Lows, Retest Coming
The Emini was bouncing around all over the show this week, and the weakness we expected after last week’s Professional shorting into Friday did arrive. Daily chart: Wednesday, Thursday and Friday formed an island reversal, a gap down followed by a gap up into Friday on the CPI nothingburger, with nothing in volume or momentum to back it. The bars are still red and the background is still red, so the uptrend on the daily chart is not in dispute. But if we drop through the significant level we are sitting at, there is a long way to go before the intermediate timeframe momentum lines come down to -100 and cross to catch us. The island reversal needs to hold on Monday and get going the other way, and I frankly do not see that at the moment. 135-minute: we are still playing off the RAMBO pattern that topped this market, sitting inside a squeeze pattern with support, resistance and price super tight. Coiled up and ready to go somewhere, but undecided. The exhaustion sell at the highs was profit taking that may get the move going, and momentum is close to the zero line: fall out of bed, get under 7600, and this cracks into a downtrend with nothing to hold it. 45-minute: the island reversal is left sitting there and momentum is in no man’s land. Five squeeze patterns in a row and no trending move out of them yet. The Better Sine Wave support and resistance lines are super close together, the bars have turned white, the background is grey and we are beneath blue Professional bars, so technically this timeframe is in a downtrend. We did hold and catch on Friday rather than breaking straight down through the supports, which is interesting. 15-minute: the end of last week was blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs with blue boxes. Then the Pros came in at the bottom, but not on a particularly strong exhaustion sell, and we bounced out of nowhere and got above the trailing stop. Not convincing. The blue Professional bar was mid sequence, not at the lows, and there was no exhaustion buy and no bullish divergence. It is a technical bounce without much backing. 13,500 tick bar: this was clear and clean at the end of last week: Big Pro Bars into the highs, blue boxes, blue bars, Signal Short, downtrend. We bounced off Amateur down bars testing into the lows with no exhaustion pattern, we just ran out of sellers. Now blue Professional bars have come in on the retrace, and the most likely trade is that we come out of those bars in the squeeze pattern on the way down and finish this off properly with blue Professional bars at the lows. A proper bottom needs two or three things: blue Professional bars at the lows, exhaustion patterns and cyclical patterns. The cyclical side was actually good on Better Sine Wave: an overshoot of support on the highest timeframe, a pullback to end of trend on the intermediate timeframe and a second cyclical turn after end of trend gave a nice bounce, and now a bounce into resistance on the highest timeframe has synced with a pullback to end of trend on the lowest timeframe. That sets up a test back into the lows to bring in the exhaustion sell and the blue Professional bars I want to see, and you can watch those print on your own charts with Better Trading Indicators. If we then break the support levels around 7600 this travels. I am still in the camp that this is weakness on the way to new highs, which I know is not a popular view.
ZN - 10-Year Treasury Note Futures: Off a Cliff on Rates
Having said for the last two or three weeks that the 10-Year was a boring chart, the last two weeks have been anything but. While everybody was shouting rates, rates, rates, I said I did not see it because there were no blue Professional bars at the highs. Where the Pros did get active was down at the lows last week, on an exhaustion buy, and then a really big squeeze pattern broke decisively lower. Rates are higher, and there has been some profit taking down here but not Big Pro Bars at the lows. I missed it: without blue Professional bars at the highs it never had the makings of a setup for me. On the 460-minute chart the move is significant: all of the signals short into the highs, and now the first blue Professional bars with exhaustion on the lower timeframes, which is good for ending the move on the higher timeframe. On the daily chart, though, the Big Pro Bars were selling the retrace and the market has fallen off a cliff, and the Pros have not come back in. Expect weakness in the 10-Year and strength in rates until blue Professional bars print on the daily chart. This week could be fireworks, and if everything is heading down it may pull equities properly with it.
CL - Crude Oil Futures: 104 With No Pro Sellers, 107 Is the Wall
Lots of people have been telling me Crude is going to test 100, and I am surprised it got to 104. The setup was three weeks ago down at 80: Big Pro Bars, blue boxes and an exhaustion buy got the move going. A little profit taking on the way never became a proper signal, the signal came after RAMBO patterns, and then the blue Professional bars stepped in again. Now we are at 104 with no blue Professional bars at the highs, not on the tick bar chart, so the Pros have not properly taken profits yet. The daily chart is what I had to show: 107 is the high from March and April, printed with Big Pro Bars, an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence. When a market builds a big range like this it tends to test both sides before it decides where to go, because a lot of traders are trapped at those levels. So while plenty of people are calling for a lot higher than 100, the 107 area is the obvious place for the market to be pushed back down. Grabbing stops above 107 and then going rapidly the other way is entirely possible. On the 460-minute chart it is already blue Professional bars taking profits up here. Watch out.
6E - Euro Futures: Big Pro Bars Turned It Down
The Euro came down from the highs after Big Pro Bars came in and turned it around, and it has set off to the downside. There was a lot of volatility when the CPI number came out, but that has not resolved the downside yet. The Euro is on the way down, and it is the currency chart most likely to drag the Pound and the Aussie Dollar with it if the week turns into a rout.
6B - British Pound Futures: Still Weak, No Pros at the Lows
On the British Pound the Professionals took profits at the highs with blue Professional bars and sold it down. The chart is a little strange in the middle, but it is still in a downtrend: no Signal Long, no blue Professional bars at these lows, no blue boxes. The Pound is still weak, and it is the first currency to go if the Euro keeps heading down.
6A - Aussie Dollar Futures: Pros Buying the Lows Against the Trend
The Aussie Dollar has some blue Professional bars coming in at the lows to save it, along with RAMBO patterns. If it strengthens it will be fighting the trend, more so than the Euro would be, so I would rather trade the Euro short than the Aussie long here.
6J - Japanese Yen Futures: Pro Profit Taking at the Highs
Big Pro Bars are taking profits at the highs on the Japanese Yen, with an exhaustion buy and blue boxes at the highs, so we are testing. Having had a nice run from blue boxes at the lows to blue boxes at the highs, this could easily fail this week and turn into a proper downtrend. Of the currencies it is the one I am least sure about on the downside.
GC - Gold Futures: Downtrend, Rally Sold
Gold had a little rally this week and the Professionals sold it, so we are still in a downtrend. It just bounced off a RAMBO pattern and there is nothing at the lows yet to say the Pros are stepping in. Nothing to do here until they do.
SI - Silver Futures: Not Bottomed Yet
Silver is the same story as Gold: downtrend, blue boxes and RAMBO patterns on the way down, and it has not properly bottomed yet. Wait for blue Professional bars at the lows before looking for a long.
BTC - Bitcoin Futures: Pros Sold the Rally to 79.5K
Bitcoin was very jumpy this week. Some Professionals stepped in at the lows, but then they sold the rally back up to 79.5K. That is the same rejection zone under 80K we have seen for weeks, and it leaves Bitcoin without a clear direction. It is one of the odd charts this week, nothing grabbing me either way.
NG - Natural Gas Futures: Pros Short the Strength, Buying at 2.75
On Natural Gas the Professionals got short on the strength, but they have come in again down at 2.75. Let us see if we get more blue Professional bar activity at those lows before calling a bottom; for now it is a level to watch rather than a trade.
HG - Copper Futures: Profit Taking at 690, Early Pro Buying
Copper had become tradable again after months of being untradeable on tariff news. The setup was textbook: blue Professional bars into the lows, a signal, a run of squeeze patterns, then a jump out of those into a lovely uptrend, and Big Pro Bars taking profits at 690. Then more tariff news drove it down hard, and bang, Big Pro Bars came in again. It is a little early to call the low, but that was a big move and the Professionals are showing interest at these levels.
Pattern of the Week: What a Real Bottom Needs
The Emini bounce this week is the teaching moment, because it looked like a bottom to anyone reading price alone and it was not one. A proper low needs two or three things to line up: blue Professional bars at the lows, exhaustion patterns down there, and cyclical patterns from Better Sine Wave. This week we only got the cyclical side, an overshoot of support and a pullback to end of trend, while the blue Professional bar printed mid sequence rather than at the low, and there was no exhaustion buy and no bullish divergence. That is a technical bounce, not Professional accumulation, and it is why the blue Professional bars showing up again on the retrace matter more than the bounce itself. The Pros are short the strength and have not yet bought the weakness. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 14 September 2026
Sunday night into Monday is key. If the island reversal on the Emini daily chart fails and the retest of the lows gets going, we break through a stack of coiled up squeeze patterns with support and resistance sitting tight together, and once 7600 starts to go this could get fun. The Euro heading down would bring the Pound and the Aussie Dollar with it, the 10-Year could keep heading down, and a rout across all of those markets together is on the table. The Professionals are not setting up with Big Pro Bars yet, which suggests they are waiting for the move before stepping in, so as always, follow the blue Professional bars. On the other side, Crude at 104 is close enough to 107 that a stop run and reversal is the trap to watch, and Copper’s Big Pro Bars at the lows are the early long to keep an eye on. I do not think we are done on the downside on the Emini.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): Recording on Saturday 12 September 2026, just gone 11:57 AM Chicago time. I do hope you are doing well. It is the weekend, so it is time for another weekend futures market recap. We will go through fifteen of the largest futures markets and I will show you what I am seeing on my charts. I hope your trading went well. I found it tough this week. The Emini was bouncing around all over the show, then we had big moves in the 10-Year and Crude and I was not on top of either of those. Everything else, not a lot of Big Pro Bars showing up. Anyway, I will show you what I am seeing on my charts at the moment, but I am not sure how helpful I am going to be.
Emini Daily Chart (00:40): This is the daily chart of the Emini. This week, at the end of the week, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, we formed an island reversal with this bar. We gapped down and then we gapped up on Thursday into Friday on a nothingburger with the CPI numbers. Nothing in terms of volume, momentum or anything like that on this week’s chart. We did have the weakness we expected after the 13,500 tick bar chart showed us Professionals shorting into Friday last week; we will get to that. The bars are still red, the background is still red, we are still in an uptrend on the daily chart. That is not in dispute. But if we drop through this significant level we are at, we have got a ways to go before we get caught or saved by the intermediate timeframe coming in, because these two slightly thicker lines will have to come down to -100 and cross. So it is interesting. This island reversal needs to hold on Monday and get going the other direction, and I frankly do not see that at the moment.
Emini 135-Minute Chart (01:48): We are playing off the RAMBO pattern that topped out this market. We came into the squeeze pattern here and we have not really made it out of the box right now. We are sitting around here, and you can see the support and resistance lines and price are super tight. We are coiled up, ready to go somewhere, but it has not decided where. This exhaustion sell was profit taking on those highs, maybe getting the move going. We are close to the zero line here. We have just got to fall out of bed, get under 7600, and then crack into a downtrend. We have to go down some timeframes. There is nothing to hold us at this point.
Emini 45-Minute Chart (02:27): This is the island reversal: we gap down, gap up, and that is left there. We are sitting in no man’s land when it comes to momentum. Again, we are pretty coiled up here into this whole pattern, one, two, three, four, five squeeze patterns, and we have not come out into a trending move. You can see all the junk on the support and resistance lines on Better Sine Wave. They are super close together. Bars have turned white on Better Sine Wave, the background is in grey, we are beneath blue Professional bars, so technically on the 45-minute chart we are in a downtrend. But we did hold and catch on Friday and get above here. We did not break straight away beneath these supports into a big trendy move on the way down. So that is interesting, but the background is in grey.
Emini 15-Minute Chart (03:12): The solid vertical yellow lines show us the beginnings and ends of the week. At the end of last week we were coming into blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs, blue boxes, and the 13,500 tick bar chart will show us that in more detail. Then they came in at the bottom down here, but it was not on a particularly strong exhaustion sell signal or anything like that. We bounced out of nowhere and got above the trailing stop, but certainly not convincingly. I think we are going to at least have to go down and test down here, because that was not a proper bottom. We had a blue Professional bar mid sequence, not at the lows. We did not have momentum patterns, exhaustion sell and bullish divergence there. For me it is just a bit of a technical bounce without much backing to it.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar Chart (04:03): This was clear and clean at the end of last week. Big blue Professional bars into the highs, blue boxes, blue bars, all of the good stuff. We get our Signal Short and we go into a downtrend. We bounce off Amateur down bars testing into those lows. We did not get an exhaustion pattern down here, we just ran out of sellers at that point. So we have come back up, and here we have got blue Professional bars coming in on the retrace. The most likely trade is that we come out of those blue Professional bars in the squeeze pattern on the way down here and finish this off properly with blue Professional bars coming in at the lows. Because for me, that is not a proper bottom being formed. We need two or three good things. We need blue Professional bars at the lows, we need exhaustion patterns down there, and we need cyclical patterns. I think we got some cyclical patterns that were good. On Better Sine Wave we had overshot support in the highest timeframe, we put in a pullback to end of trend on the intermediate timeframe, a second cyclical turn after end of trend, and we get a nice bounce from there. That is nice in terms of cyclical patterns, but the other things were not confirming. Then we have come back up into a bounce into resistance on the highest timeframe, and it has come in with a little pullback to end of trend on the lowest timeframe syncing up with cyclical resistance there. That is nice for a test back down into the lows to bring in the exhaustion sell and the blue Professional bars. So that is where I stand on the Emini. I do not think that was a proper low that was put in, and we are going to go and have a look at that properly and test there. But as soon as we do that, we come back into this 7600 type level, and if we start breaking some of these support levels, that means this is going to travel and we will go places. That is where I stand at the end of the week: this thing has to play out properly. I am still in the camp that this is just some weakness we are having along the way towards new highs that we are going to put in. I know that is not a popular view at the moment, but that is where I stand on it. Let us see where we go next week on the 13,500 tick bar chart. That will be interesting.
10-Year Futures (06:11): Having said for the last two or three weeks that it was a very boring chart on the 10-Year, the last two weeks have been anything but. We were doing nothing for two or three weeks and everybody was shouting about rates, rates, rates, and I was saying I just do not see it, because we did not see blue Professional bars at the highs, the Professionals being active there. Where they got active last week was down here on the lows, and it did not come with an exhaustion sell; mind you, that was an exhaustion buy. At that point we had a really big squeeze pattern where the market was deciding which way to go, and it broke pretty decisively. So rates are high. We have had some profit taken down here, but not Big Pro Bars coming in at the lows. So I missed that. It just did not set up right for me. If we had seen blue Professional bars up here at the highs, then yes, I would have been convinced of this downtrend, but I was not sure what was happening here and it did not have the makings of a setup for me and Better Indicators. In terms of the big picture, let us look at the daily and the 460-minute chart. It is pretty significant on the 460-minute chart: come into those highs, all of those signals short, and then this is the first time we have had blue Professional bars with exhaustion coming in on these lower timeframes. That is good for ending the move on the higher timeframe. It does not mean, though, that on the daily chart we have come into those patterns. They were getting out on the retrace here, Big Pro Bars selling down the whole thing, and then finally it breaks through. We get going, we really fall off a cliff there, but they have not come back in. So it is going to be weakness for a while, strength in rates and weakness on the 10-Year, until we see those blue Professional bars coming in on the daily chart. This week could be fireworks in terms of that. And if everything is heading down, maybe it is going to pull the equities market properly with it.
Crude (08:09): On the other side of the fence, Crude. I know lots of people have been telling me this thing is going to test up to 100. I am surprised that it got to 104, but there was the setup down here three weeks ago, down at 80. We had all the Big Pro Bars coming in there, the blue boxes, the exhaustion buy getting the move going, and this thing was on its way. It had a little bit of profit taking here, but it never ended up in a proper signal. The signal came after RAMBO patterns, and then the blue Professional bars stepped in again, got this thing going, and we are up at 104 with no blue Professional bars at the highs, not here or here or here. They have not properly taken profits, but we are eking up to really important levels at 104. I go to the daily chart here and I have to show you this, because this is an important level, this 107 that we reached back in March and April with all these Big Pro Bars at those highs, exhaustion buy, bearish divergence. When we have big ranges like this, the market tends to test both sides of the range. It goes back up here and back down here before it decides where to go, and it just means there are a lot of traders trapped at these levels. I know there are a lot of people saying we are going a lot higher than 100 on Crude, but traditionally this level up here is an obvious place to push the market back down. We might go and grab some stops above 107, that is possible, and then rapidly go the other way. But once we have patterns like this we tend to test either side of the range, and we have come damn close to testing up here. If we had the Amateur up bars on the daily chart, that would have been really nice to show us it was weakening into those highs. On the 460-minute it is blue Professional bars taking profits up at these levels. So I just say watch out. In terms of blue Professional bars on the tick bar chart, not there at the highs. Interesting on Crude.
Euro (10:17): Those are the two big ones. In terms of Forex, the Euro chart came down from these highs. Big Pro Bars came in here, turned it around, setting off to the downside. We had a lot of volatility when the CPI number came out, but this has not resolved yet on the downside. So we have got the Euro on the way down.
British Pound (10:33): They are taking profits up here, blue Professional bars, and they sold it down. This one is a little bit strange there, but we are still in a downtrend. We have not signalled long, we do not have blue Professional bars on these lows, no blue boxes and so on. So the British Pound, I would say, is still weak at the moment.
Aussie Dollar (10:54): Some blue Professional bars coming in at the lows down here to save it, RAMBO patterns, but the Aussie Dollar would be fighting the trend if it strengthened, more than, say, the Euro.
Japanese Yen (11:06): Big Pro Bars taking profits at the highs here, exhaustion buy, blue boxes at the highs, so we are testing. This could easily fail this week and turn into a proper downtrend on the Japanese Yen, having had a nice run from blue boxes down here to blue boxes up here.
Gold and Silver (11:25): What was Gold up to this week? Selling that little rally there, so we are still in a downtrend. It just bounced off a RAMBO pattern on Gold. And Silver, same thing, downtrend. Blue boxes, RAMBO patterns, it has not properly bottomed on Silver yet.
Bitcoin (11:45): Bitcoin was very jumpy here. We had some Professionals step in there, but then they sold it down at this rally back up to 79.5K. It is just odd this week with all of these charts. Nothing really grabbing me.
Natural Gas (12:00): They are getting short on that strength there, but they come in down here at 2.75. So let us see if on Natural Gas we get a little bit more activity with blue Professional bars at those lows.
Copper (12:15): Oh, and Copper. Copper was starting to get tradable. A few months ago it was untradeable because of the tariff news that was coming out and dinging it around all the time. Then we had this nice little setup: blue Professional bars into the lows, we get our signal, all these squeeze patterns, we jump out of that into a lovely uptrend, and then the blue Professional bars, the Big Pro Bars, take profits there at 690. Lovely. Then we get the tariff news, I think it was tariff news, that drove this thing down, and then bang, Big Pro Bars coming in here. It is a little bit early in terms of Copper, but that was a big move in Copper.
Week Ahead (12:50): I suppose that is all I have got to talk about this week. For me it is not a clear plan, but let us see if the Emini ends up selling off hard. The Euro is going to head down, and it is going to bring the British Pound and the Aussie Dollar with it. Not so sure about the Japanese Yen, but the 10-Year could keep on heading down. It could be a little bit of a rout in all of those markets together. They are not really setting up yet with Big Pro Bars, and maybe they are waiting for that move to happen before stepping in. So I come out of running through those charts thinking this is going to be key. If this fails Sunday, Monday, and gets going, we could have a little bit of a rout on our hands, because all of a sudden we are breaking through some pretty important coiled up squeeze patterns with support and resistance really tight together. That 7600 level starts to go, and this could get fun. As always, follow the blue Professional bars, but I do not think we are all done on the downside on the Emini, and that could tumble and bring these other markets into play. Anyway, there we go, just my thoughts. Hope you are having a great weekend, and looking forward to Monday’s trading.
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