This is the 30 August 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series. It was a week of trend changes. The NVIDIA numbers came out Thursday evening, the market pushed to new highs on Friday morning, and then it U-Turned and gave the whole move back into the close. The blue boxes sitting at those highs tell you who was selling. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
TL;DR - This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini: 7700 is the line into Monday. A break of 7663 and then 7654 opens the trapdoor for a nasty countertrend move. Above 7782 and the uptrend is back on. Bias is to the downside until one of those levels goes.
- US Dollar strength was the trade of the week. The Euro collapsed from 1.17 to under 1.16 after Big Pro Bars took profits at the highs. The Pound topped on an amateur-driven RAMBO pattern. 150 pips booked on the Aussie Dollar, out at 71.80 under the key 72.00 daily level.
- The metals top was amateur-made, the Crude low was professional. Gold rolled from 4700 to 4500 with no Big Pro Bars at the highs and Silver did the same from 72 toward 64, while Crude has Big Pro Bars stepping in at 80 and needs 84.00 to 84.50 to confirm.
Macro Setup This Week
The chain that matters going into September looks like this: Crude is going up, which means inflation is going up, which means rates are going up, which means bonds get sold, which supports the US Dollar, which pressures equities. That chain was visible in almost every chart this week. The US Dollar was strong against everything. The 10-Year had a false break lower and then finally attracted some blue Professional bars at the lows, so there is at least a question about whether money starts flowing to the safety of bonds if equities crack.
The other piece is calendar. This was the last quiet week of the northern summer. Next week is the first week of September, everybody is back with their feet under the desks, and volume comes with them. A market that closes weak on a Friday going into that kind of week is worth watching very closely on the Sunday night open.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES - Emini S&P 500 Futures: The NVIDIA U-Turn
The Emini put in the week’s most important structure across every timeframe. Daily chart: a Better Sine Wave cycle support has come in and it needs to hold. The lows of the last couple of days are critical. This is still a long term uptrend by definition, because price is above the blue Professional bars and the background is red on the Combo Trend indicator, but that big pullback-to-end-of-trend pattern has now rippled through the timeframes and the head has overshot. While a trending move is running, those circle supports hold and they are high probability. Once the trending move is over, the cycles are the things at risk of breaking. 135-minute: pullback to end of trend has played out on the lowest and the intermediate timeframes, so the trending energy is spent and cyclical energy is running the show. 7654 is in play, roughly 60 to 70 points below. There is also a squeeze pattern here, and a squeeze means support, resistance and price are compressed and about to expand. 45-minute: multiple squeezes. The one into the highs produced a RAMBO pattern and reversed. 7663 is the key level, and Monday needs to get above 7782 to confirm the uptrend. Break 7663 and this goes for a tumble. 15-minute: the week started with blue Professional bars and flush patterns at the lows that could not be broken, then NVIDIA came out, blue Professional bars went up and down, and a blue box printed right at the highs. That is a U-Turn setup. They forced the market up, got everybody excited about new highs, and sold the lot. 13,500 tick bar: this is the chart with the detail. Bullish divergence and exhaustion sell got the move going, the background is grey, and in price and volume terms we are now in a downtrend. What is missing is the exhaustion buy at the absolute highs, which never printed. The Better Pro Am trailing stop is still a way off, so this needs to chase down before the picture is complete. These are the indicators doing the work on these charts: Better Trading Indicators.
6E - Euro Futures: Textbook Professional Distribution
The Euro gave the cleanest Pro/Am sequence of the week over two weeks of activity. Big Pro Bars took profits all the way up, with a blue background showing super high average trade size, blue boxes into the highs confirming new highs made on Professional selling, and an exhaustion buy in blue marking the blow-off. Then the Big Pro Bars came back in on the retrace, not on the way down, which is them getting positioned short. Exhaustion sell got the move going and it collapsed. Topped out just above 1.17 and traded down under 1.16. That is what following the blue bars is for.
6B - British Pound Futures: An Amateur Top, Not a Professional One
The British Pound also topped out, but the mechanics were completely different from the Euro. Into the highs it was RAMBO patterns, driven entirely by the amateurs. A few blue Professional bars stepped in and there was an exhaustion buy up there, but this ran out of puff rather than being distributed. The Pound cannot fight the Euro, so once US Dollar strength was in play it joined in. Worth studying the two charts side by side: same outcome, two different causes.
6A - Aussie Dollar Futures: 150 Pips, Out at 71.80
The Aussie Dollar was the trade of the week and it closed for 150 pips, out at 71.80. Not the absolute high, and that is fine. The entry was a coming-out-of-the-dark setup: an exhaustion buy at the lows showed anxious buying, but there were no blue Professional bars taking profits, the background went from red to black above the Better Pro Am trailing stop while Better Sine Wave turned white, and then the break out of that turned the background red again. There was some jiggery pokery to sit through on an RBA announcement, but the Big Pro Bars gaming it up at the lows said higher. They got out properly just under 72.00, and 72.00 on the daily timeframe was always going to be hard. Every commentator had 71 to 72 leading straight to 75. Not yet.
6J - Japanese Yen Futures: Still in a Downtrend
The Japanese Yen sold off and is trying to hold, without much success. Big Pro Bars printed, price came back down, tested and broke through. More blue Professional bars have come in and the background is grey, which puts it in a downtrend. It tried to hold last week and could not. RAMBO patterns turned the background red briefly, then it gave way again at the lows. Part of the same US Dollar strength story running through the whole currency complex.
ZN - 10-Year Note Futures: The First Real Pro Buying in Weeks
Everybody is talking about the 10-Years and for weeks there has been nothing happening on that chart. This week there was finally something: a false break lower, and then some blue Professional bars coming in at the lows, almost bouncing off a double bottom. Does that mean money starting to flow into the safety of bonds? Possibly. Equities sell off, bonds hold, the US Dollar catches the flow. But it is not a huge amount of confidence yet, and until the trend actually changes the selling continues, which means higher rates.
GC - Gold Futures: 4700 to 4500 With No Pros at the Top
Gold started to roll over. Blue Professional bars went into the highs and there were RAMBO patterns up at 4700 at the beginning of the week, then it rolled down to 4500. There is a short signal in place, but there are no Big Pro Bars behind it. This one simply ran out of steam because the amateurs were the ones active at the highs. That is a weaker top than a distributed one, and it matters for how far the move runs.
SI - Silver Futures: Not Convincing Either
Silver is the same story with less conviction. Some blue Professional bars took profits at the highs at 72, it has rolled over, and an exhaustion sell is potentially getting the move going. But there were no Big Pro Bars at the top. They are going to fight it at 64, so the question for next week is whether 64 gets tested and holds again.
BTC - Bitcoin Futures: Signal Short at 79.5K
Bitcoin had a nasty Friday into the highs. It got up to 82K, which was good trading up there, and then all the Big Pro Bars came in with an exhaustion buy. Signal Short at 79.5K, and that puts Bitcoin in a downtrend. Unlike Gold and Silver, this top had the Professionals all over it, which is the difference between a top that fades and a top that trends.
CL - Crude Futures: Big Pro Bars Defending 80
Crude looks like it might be holding. There was an exhaustion buy with bearish divergence and blue Professional bars taking profits just under 88, which gave a Signal Short at the start of the week, and that worked. But then the Big Pro Bars came in hard at 80, with no exhaustion sell to go with it and an exhaustion buy potentially getting a move going. There have been tests and a few blue Professional bars since, not many. The 80 level with Big Pro Bars behind it is the important one. Watch for a break above 84.00 to 84.50.
HG - Copper Futures: Pro Buying on the Way Down
Copper was holding last week, the signal fired, it raced away and then came back. Blue Professional bars have been coming in on the way down, which is the constructive read. The level to watch is a break back above 675 to confirm the buyers are in control again.
ZC - Corn Futures: Starting to Top Out
Corn is part of an ags complex that went a bit nuts over the last couple of weeks. Super strong trending moves right across the grains. The question now is whether Corn is starting to top out, and the honest answer is that the chart is closer to a top than to a fresh breakout.
ZS - Soybean Futures: Strong, But Nobody Is Taking Profits
Soybeans are super strong, but there are no blue Professional bars coming in at the highs. That is the detail that separates a trend with legs from a trend running on retail enthusiasm. No Professional profit taking means no confirmation either way, so this one stays on watch rather than on the order ticket.
ZW - Wheat Futures: RAMBO Patterns at the Highs
Wheat closes out the ags with RAMBO patterns at the highs. Strong moves right across the grains this fortnight, but no blue Professional bars taking profits up there. That is amateurs at those highs, same as Gold and Silver, and it is the single most repeated tell of the week.
Pattern of the Week: The Blue Box U-Turn
The Emini 15-minute chart gave the teaching moment. NVIDIA’s numbers hit Thursday evening, the market pushed to new highs Friday morning, and a blue box printed right at those highs. A blue box means new highs are being made on blue Professional bars, which is the opposite of what most traders assume when they see a breakout. New highs on Professional activity, immediately after a news catalyst everybody is watching, is distribution, not accumulation. They forced it up, got the crowd excited about a breakout, and sold everything into the enthusiasm. Then an exhaustion sell got the reversal going and the market gave the entire move back. The reason to look at the blue bars rather than the price action is exactly this: price said breakout, volume said exit. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 31 August 2026
First week of September, everybody back at their desks, and a lot more activity to come with them. The Emini closed weak but did not keep going, so Sunday night into Monday is the tell: break 7700 and this looks nasty to the downside toward 7663 and 7654. If equities crack, expect bonds to rally, the US Dollar to rally and Crude to rally with it. If 7700 holds and 7782 goes, the uptrend is back and the whole downside case gets shelved. Either way, the bias here is to the downside until proven otherwise.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): Sunday 30 August 2026, just gone 1:04am. Hope you are doing well. It is the weekend, so it is time for another weekend futures market recap. We will go through the fifteen largest futures markets and I will show you what I am seeing on my charts. Friday was an important day, and this week was important for a bunch of trend changes that have happened, so we need to go through those. I wonder whether that has some real significance for what might happen early next week. We are settled in nicely now in France, in a town in Provence just near Avignon on the other side of the river, Villeneuve-les-Avignon, which roughly translated means new town of Avignon, which means it was built in 1333. They work on a different time scale in Europe. There is the castle up the hill with beautiful gardens inside, and down in town opposite the church, consecrated in 1333, which holds the Pieta. It is a replica inside the church because the real one is in the Louvre. We are forty five minutes from the Camargue with its white ponies and flamingos. While Mrs Emini-Watch is riding, I am enjoying the good coffee. The Obamas came here in 2019, which I only found out this week. We are here another week and then off to Biarritz.
Emini Daily Chart (01:45): On the Better Sine Wave cycles we have had a support come in, which is important, and it needs to hold. The lows of the last couple of days are super important. Normally trends play themselves out, support to resistance, and you can bank on that. But we have also put in a very big pattern, which is pullback to end of trend rippling through the timeframes. The left shoulder was pullback to end of trend on the lowest timeframe, then the intermediate timeframe pullback to end of trend put in a head move, and we have overshot that. While we are in a trending move these circle supports hold and they are high probability. After the trending move is over, it is the cycles that are at risk of breaking. I will show you a couple of cycles that worry me, because if they get broken we turn into a countertrend move. I know we are in a long term uptrend, because by definition we are above the blue Professional bars and the background is red on the Combo Trend indicator. In terms of price and volume we are going up, with blue Professional bars at the lows and we are holding there. So this will not be a change in trend, just a countertrend move, because we have had weakness into the highs with Amateur bars buying those highs. Friday’s activity, with NVIDIA’s numbers out and everything turning around in the day session, was important.
Emini 135-Minute Chart (03:22): On the cycles up here, this one played out with pullback to end of trend on the lowest and then the intermediate timeframe. We have run out of trending energy and we are going through cyclical energy. That low, 7654, is in play. We are about 60 to 70 points away from it. If that gets broken to the downside we could go for a nasty tumble. Those were the highs, the RAMBO patterns, and we trailed our stops up. On the 135-minute we have a squeeze pattern. A squeeze means all of the support and resistance and price are super compressed, and we come out of squeezes into trending moves. We are in compression moving into expansion. Is that going to be a break to the downside into a nasty trending move down?
Emini 45-Minute Chart (04:20): A whole bunch of squeezes. Coming into the highs we had a squeeze pattern, ended up with a RAMBO pattern at the highs, and it reversed and went the other way. You often get a false break out of a squeeze pattern, and that was representing all of this activity. There are three resistances super close together with price at that point, and that is what caused the squeeze to go off. Then we came down into this move, another squeeze on Friday, and a little blue Professional bar came in, which is what caused us to trail the stop up. The 7663 level is absolutely key. Is this going to run out, or go support to resistance on the highest timeframe? We have red bars at the moment, the background is red, we are in an uptrend. We need to get out of this with Monday’s activity and get above 7782 to confirm we are in an uptrend. If it fails and we break through 7663, we are going for a tumble. We did not get an exhaustion buy at these points, but we did run out of steam with a RAMBO pattern at the highs. Those are the two levels I am looking at for a break to the downside.
Emini 15-Minute Chart (05:34): Here we add the solid vertical yellow line to show the beginnings and ends of the weeks, because the weeks are important and each one has a different characteristic. Last week we were coming off with blue Professional bars coming in and flush patterns. They could not get into those lows, with Amateur down bars into there. We tested this week and then went up. The NVIDIA numbers came out, I think Thursday evening into Friday morning, and there we go, blue Professional bars up and down. That is a U-Turn going on. We have a blue box right at the highs. They are forcing the market up, using that activity to get everybody excited that we are breaking to new highs, and then they sell everything on the stack and it comes down. Exhaustion sell got the move going and we stood ground just above 7700. At the end of the week we closed pretty weak, but we did not keep on going. Let us see if Sunday into Monday we break down through 7700. This thing looks nasty to the downside. We are underneath the trailing stop, but the bars have not turned white yet on Better Sine Wave, so we do not have a Combo Trend downtrend on the 15-minute at the moment.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar Chart (06:46): This is the chart that gives us the most detail. Down at these lows we could not catch a break to the downside. All of these signs of strength were coming in, the flush patterns we were seeing on the 15-minute into those lows. We broke up and the blue Professional bars came in on the retrace. Nice move up, pullback to end of trend on the lowest timeframe and then the intermediate timeframe, ran out of steam, turned around and went the other way. The support and resistance on the highest timeframe cannot really help us here, because they did not catch the low and did not catch the highs, so we are between those. But we have broken into a downtrend with Friday’s activity. At the beginning of the week, all those flush patterns and lows with signs of strength caught us and pushed us up. Blue Professional bars took profits here and they were not at the absolute high on some of the lower tick bar charts, the 4,500 tick bar chart for example, where they were at the highs but chasing it down. Bullish divergence, exhaustion sell. We need this to come down on the blue Professional bar to chase down the Better Pro Am trailing stop, and that needs to get broken before this turns into an uptrend. That is why the background is grey and that trailing stop is a way away. I do not have the blue Professional bars at the absolute high, Big Pro Bars at the absolute highs selling it down. They came in a little bit late in the sequence, potentially because they were just following along. The background is grey on Combo Trend, so in terms of price and volume we are in a downtrend here. Friday was important. Let us see if they were buying into these lows or whether this just gives way and keeps going. I am short Emini at the moment, so that is my bias, to the downside. But those blue Professional bars, and the fact that we did not have an exhaustion buy at the absolute highs, was interesting. That came further down instead, all the way down. Let us wait and see, but the trailing stop is a way away. We have to chase this thing down, and then if we start breaking some serious levels we are going to give way. That is my view on the Emini charts. You might have a different view, so tell me what you are thinking in the comments.
Euro (09:21): Forex charts, excellent moves this week, and I took profits on my Aussie, which I will show you. This is two weeks of activity on the Euro chart, and this is why we follow the blue Professional bars. They were taking profits on the way up, exhaustion buy, bearish divergence, Big Pro Bars, everything going off. The bars are blue, which means the Professionals are active. The background is blue, meaning super high average trade size, so those are Big Pro Bars taking profits. We have blue boxes into those highs, which means new highs being made with blue Professional bars, suggesting profit taking. Then an exhaustion buy in blue, showing the Professionals causing the blow-off activity, and it rolls over on this last leg up. Big Pro Bars came again on the retrace, not on the way down but on the retrace. They are getting in. Exhaustion sell got the move going and we collapsed this week in the Euro. Topped out at 1.17 and a bit, and we are down under 1.16. A nice move, Signal Short on the Euro.
British Pound (10:27): The British Pound also topped out, but it is a different move. Into the highs it is RAMBO patterns, all driven by the amateurs at that point. Then some blue Professional bars stepped in, we do have an exhaustion buy pattern up there, and then we sold off. The British Pound cannot fight the Euro, so at that point it joins in US Dollar strength. RAMBO patterns. It is a different topping-out activity. This ran out of puff because it was driven by the amateurs. The other one was Professional profit taking at those highs on the Euro. To end that move on the way down, we want to see similar activity.
Aussie Dollar (11:01): I took profits at 71.80. It was not the absolute high, but I am quite happy getting out just here. That was my exit, and a 150 pip trade for me, which was very nice. Here was my entry point. I had to sit through a bit of jiggery pokery with blue Professional bars on an RBA announcement that came out, but we knew we were going to leg even higher when we had these blue Professionals gaming it up. They were not taking profits at the highs here or here. They gamed it up at those lows after an exhaustion sell and bullish divergence, then they started to get out here, and then they got out properly just under 72.00. I think we went through 72.00. On the daily timeframe 72.00 is super important, which is why we knew 72.00 would be hard to get through. Of course all the commentators were saying that once we get to 71 or 72, we go to 75. Well, not in the meantime. We are going to sell off first, and these are Big Pro Bars coming at the highs. The reason for getting into this was Big Pro Bars again at those lows. We saw them here at the lows, and then there was one Big Pro Bar at the lows, and then we got our bouncing ball. Exhaustion sell at that point and the market starts to go. Why did I get in here? Because we had an exhaustion buy pattern, so people were pretty anxious to buy it up at those lows, but we had no blue Professional bars taking profits here or here. It is a trade I like to call coming out of the dark. We had confirmation of an uptrend, the background in red, then we go dark where the background is black, because we are above the trailing stop on Better Pro Am but Better Sine Wave turned white into a small downtrend. Then we break out of that and the background turns red again, so it is coming out of the dark. That was my entry point. 150 pips on the Aussie.
Japanese Yen (12:55): This sold off and it is trying to hold. We had Big Pro Bars here and we came down and tested again, then broke through it. More blue Professional bars come in, the background is grey, so we are in a downtrend on the Japanese Yen. It was trying last week to hold, but it did not. Here we had RAMBO patterns, the background turned red, but it gave way again at those lows.
10-Year Notes (13:21): Everybody is going on about the 10-Years and we have been saying there is nothing happening on the 10-Years, except we did have a false break this week. We have come in and finally we have got some blue Professional bars coming at the lows. So we have strength in the US Dollar, weakness in all the other currencies, and the 10-Years with a little bit of blue Professional bars coming in here, almost bouncing off the double bottom down at the lows. Does that mean money is flowing into the safety of bonds, potentially? In the US we get a sell off in equities, bonds hold, and they flow in with USD? I do not know, but it is not a huge amount of confidence in the 10-Years at that point. They are selling off until we start to see a change in trend, which means potentially higher rates.
Gold (14:06): Gold also started to roll over. Blue Professional bars into the highs and RAMBO patterns up here, 4700 at the beginning of the week, and then we have rolled over down to 4500. We have a short signal at the moment but no Big Pro Bars. It just ran out of steam because the amateurs were active at the highs.
Silver (14:26): Silver, again, not convincing. Some blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs at 72. We have rolled over and an exhaustion sell is potentially getting that move going, but we did not have Big Pro Bars here. They are going to fight it at 64, so let us see if we come into 64 and it holds again.
Bitcoin (14:42): We had a nasty day on Friday into those highs. We got up to 82K. That was good trading up at those highs. Then all the Big Pro Bars come in here, exhaustion buy, Signal Short at 79.5K, so we are in a downtrend on Bitcoin.
Crude (14:58): Crude also looks like it might be holding. We had an exhaustion buy, bearish divergence, blue Professional bars taking profits up at just under 88, and we got our Signal Short at the beginning of the week, which was nice. But then the Big Pro Bars come in here at 80. And no exhaustion sell at that point, with an exhaustion buy maybe getting the move going. Test, test, some blue Professional bars here but not many. This is important, Big Pro Bars here down at 80. Let us see if Crude continues to break higher above 84.00 to 84.50. So Crude going up, inflation going up, rates going up, bonds crashing, US Dollar strength, equities fall. We will see.
Copper (15:45): Copper last week was holding and we had our signal, raced away and then came back. Blue Professional bars coming in on the way down. Let us see if we get a break back above 675.
Corn, Soybeans and Wheat (15:56): I think all the ags went a bit nuts over the last couple of weeks. Super strong trending moves, but are we starting to top out on Corn? Let us go to the next one, Soybeans. No blue Professional bars. Super strong here, but no blue Professional bars coming on Soybeans at the highs. And then lastly Wheat. Again, RAMBO patterns at the highs. They have been strong moves on all of those ags, but no blue Professionals taking profits here. That is amateurs at those highs.
Week Ahead (16:31): It is going to be a super important week going forward. First week of September, next week, so everybody is back with their feet under the desks and there is going to be a lot more activity going on. Let us see if equities hold. If they do not, if they crack, then we could get bonds rallying, we could get the USD rallying and Crude rallying. Interesting. That is enough from me. Looking forward to next week’s trade.
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Every blue box, Big Pro Bar, RAMBO pattern and exhaustion signal in this recap comes off the same toolkit, built on CME average trade size data so you can see what the Professionals are doing rather than guess at it. Get them on your own charts with Better Trading Indicators.
