Filing this one from Kauai with a foot full of sea urchin spines (a story for another day). Important week for the Emini – up 800 points / 12.5% from the 6400 low to almost 7200. The momentum read on the day-and-night session hit 10.5 million contracts, which we have basically never seen. It was a full-blown short-covering rally, and I took profits and went flat on Friday. This is the 19 April 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series – every Sunday I break down the week across 15 of the largest futures markets. Here is what I am seeing on the charts heading into the week of 20 April 2026.
TL;DR – This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini ripped 12.5% (800 points) from 6400 to almost 7200 – the entire week was a short-covering rally on Iran ceasefire news. Day-and-night session momentum read 10.5 million contracts. I went flat Friday – probably early, but I do not have the stomach to hold record highs without Big Pro Bars at the top yet.
- Forex weakness developing. Big Pro Bars taking profits at the highs on Euro and British Pound. Aussie Dollar rolling over. Japanese Yen in a confirmed downtrend.
- Crude setting up to rally if the Iran ceasefire breaks. Signal long at the lows with Big Pro Bars in. Natural Gas rallying off 2.55. Corn starting to move. Risk-off in indices, risk-on in commodities.
Macro Setup This Week
The whole rally was driven by Iran ceasefire news and the market refusing to see anything other than disaster from the Middle East situation – now reversing into a violent short-cover. Everybody was looking to use the bounce to get short and got squeezed all week. Question for next week: does the ceasefire hold (continued risk-on) or break (Crude rips, indices reverse)?
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES – Emini S&P 500 Futures: Short-Covering Rally Off 6400
Up 800 points / 12.5% from the 6400 low to almost 7200. Daily chart: day-and-night session momentum read of 10.5 million contracts – massive, mostly short covering. Pullback to end of trend on the intermediate time frame still playing out, which means higher prices ahead even though we are overcooked. 135-minute: exhaustion buy printed at 7200 but no blue Professional up bars at the highs. 45-minute: the gap-and-go off 6400 was Big Pro Bars buying the breakout – they have not appeared at the top yet. 15-minute: blue Professional bars and blue boxes at the recent highs show some profit-taking, not a full Pro distribution. 13,500 tick: the original signal at 6400 had Big Pro Bars + exhaustion patterns – good enough for a half position. From the flat top at 6800 we got 5 squeezes in a row then broke into the uptrend. Big Pro Bars now starting to come in at 7000 – want more at the highs before calling the top. I went flat Friday despite the trailing stop being 70 points away. Probably early. Trade these setups with the indicators I use on the charts: Better Trading Indicators. More analysis in the Emini Trading archive.
6E – Euro Futures: Pros Taking Profits at 1.19
Big Pro Bars stepped in this week into the exhaustion buy with bearish divergence. RAMBO, RAMBO, one final push toward 1.19, then fell off. No fresh signal short yet but professional weakness at the highs is showing.
6B – British Pound Futures: Pros Selling 1.36
Big Pro Bars at the highs this week with a test up almost to 1.36. Signal short, another sign of weakness – British Pound could easily roll over from here.
6A – Aussie Dollar Futures: Pros Getting Short at 72
Exhaustion buy bearish divergence into the highs, one signal short, then flushed back up to 72 – and Big Pro Bars at the end of the week starting to get short. Trailing stop not tripped yet but the Aussie is in danger of rolling over.
6J – Japanese Yen Futures: Confirmed Downtrend
Massive activity on the Yen this week – exhaustion buys at the highs and rolling over. Pros taking profits on the way up, getting short on the way down. In a confirmed downtrend with exhaustion sell getting the move going.
ZN – 10-Year Notes Futures: Junky Moves, No Big Pro Bars at the Highs
Junky moves, lots of exhaustion buy bearish divergence flush patterns but no Big Pro Bars at the highs. Not setting up for big trending moves yet.
GC – Gold Futures: Starting to Roll Over
Nice bottom a month ago with exhaustion sell, bullish divergence and Big Pro Bars – we signaled long. Trying to signal short now. Only with Friday’s close do we have Big Pro Bars come in. Starting to roll on Gold.
SI – Silver Futures: No Blue Professional Bar Activity
Had a nice signal earlier out of flush patterns but waiting for the retrace for Big Pro Bars – and we got no blue Professional bar activity at all this week. Silver volume so thin I am about to change the tick bar setting again – 7 weeks of activity on a single chart is too compressed.
BTC – Bitcoin Futures: Pros Bought 72, Held the Retest
Last week’s video was about Pros getting short – then they picked it up midweek. Blue Professional bars came in at 72 and bought everything in the stack. Move held, tested back at 73-74, Big Pro Bars stepped in again, amateurs wrong-footed at the lows, then away. No Pros taking profits at the highs – still technically in an uptrend despite weekend weakness on Iran news.
ETH – Ethereum Futures: Pros Bought 2200
Same play as Bitcoin. Big Pro Bars wanted Ethereum at 2200 and bought everything. Weak this weekend on Iran news but no Blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs – still in an uptrend on my rules.
CL – Crude Oil Futures: Setting Up for a Rally
Signal at the end of last week. Lots of activity 115 down to 90. Blue Professional bars came in just over 100 and sold it down – signal short. Then Pros stepped back in: exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, flush, Blue Professional bars at the lows, signal long. If everyone wakes up Sunday and the ceasefire is not holding, Crude is going to spike. Got a little uptrend forming.
NG – Natural Gas Futures: Pros Stepping In at 2.55
At the lows this week at 2.55, Big Pro Bars came in with exhaustion sell. No bullish divergence pattern but a stair-step trade with Blue Professional bars stepping in. Watch for a break back above 2.70 – the Pros are back in here.
HG – Copper Futures: Pros Taking Profits at the Highs
Big Pro Bars stepping in at the highs to take profits. No exhaustion buy yet and not broken into a downtrend – but be wary of Copper this week.
ZC – Corn Futures: Signal Long
Got a signal this week. Came back up – no Blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs, but on the retrace the Professionals stepped in with an exhaustion buy maybe getting it going. Needs to break back through 4.52 to confirm an uptrend on Corn.
Pattern of the Week: The Anatomy of a Short-Covering Rally
This week was a textbook short-covering rally and worth understanding. Everybody was using each little bounce off 6400 to get short, betting on continued Middle East panic. But the negative news got priced in too aggressively, and as soon as the Iran ceasefire hit, every short got squeezed. The gap-and-go on the 45-minute chart trapped late shorts on top of early shorts – they could never get out because the gap never filled. That trapped-short energy is what drove the 12.5% move. The lesson: when sentiment is one-sided and the news flow turns, the bounce can be violent and sustained. Read more on this approach in Follow the Pros, Fade the Amateurs.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 20 April 2026
Watch for Iran ceasefire news – it has been the dominant macro driver. If the ceasefire holds, continued risk-on; if it breaks, Crude rips and the Emini reverses. I am flat the Emini at record highs and looking for either the blow-off signal (Big Pro Bars at the top) or the pullback. Forex weakness setting up. Natural Gas, Corn, Crude all early-stage rally setups worth watching.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): Saturday 18 April 2026, just gone 9:09 PM Chicago time. Up 800 points from the low – 6400 up to almost 7200. 12.5%. I am done, I am out, I am flat as of Friday afternoon. Probably early, I usually am, but I just think it has gone a little bit too far too fast. Feeling sorry for myself – surfed at Poipu on the south side of Kauai, beached myself on the reef and stepped on a sea urchin. Ended up in emergency. They said nothing they can do, just soak it in very hot water and vinegar. Hobbling around.
Emini Daily (01:39): Day-and-night session momentum read off the charts – almost 10.5 million contracts. Have we seen anything like this? No. Short covering, because everybody wanted to get short this rally. All week it just pushed up and up and took out all the shorts. Now they are on the other side of the boat saying it is going to the moon. I do not think so. I think it is just gone too far for the time being. The day-only session momentum read about 5.3 million – the prior low was 7.2 million, so a little ways to go before triggering an exhaustion pattern on day session data. We are playing out pullback to end of trend on the intermediate time frame here on the daily. Smart play with cycles: once a higher time frame cycle is in play, it tends to play out. Cyclical resistance on the lowest time frame coming up but needs price confirmation. I am probably early because the higher time frame cycle has not played out yet.
Emini 135-Minute (03:48): Gone from exhaustion sell at the lows with Blue Professional bars and flush patterns down at the bottom, now reached the other end of the cycle at 7200 with exhaustion buy printed. But no Blue Professional up bars up here. In terms of cycles, a ways to go – maybe an intermediate cycle to print. Still in an uptrend on the 135-minute.
Emini 45-Minute (04:26): Nice signal on the gap up – Blue Professional bars bought that little dip and raced away. Extreme momentum readings up here but no Blue Professional up bars on the way up. Trailing stop on Better Pro Am trails behind the Blue Professional bars; Professionals leg in and leg out so we want to ratchet the stop up behind them. They have not appeared. If we get a bearish divergence it will be on the zero line, so we need to see a flush. Still early on the 45-minute.
Emini 15-Minute (05:03): Nice downtrending signal that led to exhaustion sell, then Big Pro Bars come in with signal long and we are buying that breakout. Gathering pattern waiting for the breakout. Gap above that traps shorts because the gap never fills. Exhaustion buy with bearish divergence (not on the zero line). Coming up to the highs: Blue Professional bars at the highs – blue boxes, blue bars – but not a big Pro Am signal. A little profit-taking, not a top. Still 100 points away on the trailing stop but my signal to be cautious and take profits. Overcooked on Better Sine Wave with pullback to end of trends on the low and intermediate time frames.
Emini 13,500 Tick (06:39): Beautiful signal back at the 6400 lows – Big Pro Bars with exhaustion patterns, good enough for a half position. Bingo. Then we did not see Big Pro Bars until the flat top at 6800 last week. Market does not like flat tops – tops are made with spikes. Squeeze patterns with support and resistance lines super close together, five little squeezes in a row, then break out into the uptrend. Big Pro Bars now starting to come in at 7000. Want more taking profits at the highs – exhaustion buy was at the beginning of the week. Overdone, about 70 points away from the trailing stop. The whole week was a short-covering rally because the news was so negative – everyone refused to see any positives from the Middle East situation.
Euro (09:00): Big Pro Bars coming into the exhaustion buy with bearish divergence, RAMBO RAMBO, final little push to almost 1.19 and fell off. Not another signal short yet but showing weakness with Professionals at the highs.
British Pound (09:35): Same type of thing. Blue Professional bars at the highs, Big Pro Bars this week, test up almost to 1.36. Signal short, another sign of weakness – British Pound could easily drop off.
Aussie Dollar (09:59): Up at the highs the Pros are buying the lows. Big Pro Bars at the end of the week. Exhaustion buy bearish divergence, one signal, then back up to 72 flushing out – now Big Pro Bars at the end of the week getting short. Not tripped Better Pro Am’s trailing stop but in danger of rolling over.
Japanese Yen (10:27): Massive activity this week. Exhaustion buys up here, rolling over. Taking profits on the way up, getting short on the way down. In a downtrend with exhaustion sell getting the move going.
10-Year Notes (10:44): Not much happening. Junky moves. Exhaustion buy bearish divergence flush patterns but not a lot of Big Pro Bars at the highs. Not setting up for big trending moves yet.
Gold (11:07): Nice bottom a month ago – exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, Big Pro Bars. Signaled long. Trying to signal short now. Only with the close on Friday do we have Big Pro Bars come in. Starting to roll on Gold.
Silver (11:34): Nice signal earlier but came out of flush patterns and I was waiting for the retrace for Big Pro Bars. No Blue Professional bar activity this week at all. Changed settings to 1200 at the beginning of the year because of huge activity, now there is so little activity coming through Silver – going to need to change the tick bar setting again.
Bitcoin (12:23): Last weekend’s video was about Professionals getting short. Then they picked it up midweek. Much more activity coming through Bitcoin. Blue Professional bars came in at 72 and ate everything in the stack. Move held, tested back at 73-74, Big Pro Bars step in, amateurs wrong-footed at the lows, away. No Blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs. Weak this weekend on Iran news but still in an uptrend.
Ethereum (13:12): Same as Bitcoin. Big Pro Bars wanted Ethereum at 2200. Weak this weekend on fundamental Iran news but no Blue Professional bars at these highs – still technically in an uptrend on my rules.
Crude (13:40): Setting up for a rally. Signal at the end of last week. Lots of activity 115 down to 90, came back up. Blue Professional bars come in at just over 100 and sell it down. Signal short. Then they came back in – exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, flush, Blue Professional bars at the lows, signal long. If everyone agrees the ceasefire is not holding, Crude is going to spike again. Little uptrend forming.
Natural Gas (14:18): At the lows this week at 2.55, Big Pro Bars come in with exhaustion sell. No bullish divergence but a stair-step trade with Blue Professional bars stepping in on weakness. Watch for break back above 2.70 – the Pros are back in here.
Copper (14:37): Taking profits at the highs. Big Pro Bars into the highs. No exhaustion buy at the moment and not broken into a downtrend – just be wary this week.
Corn (14:54): Starting to rally. Got a signal this week. No Blue Professional bars taking profits but on the retrace the Professionals stepped in with exhaustion buy maybe getting this going. Needs to get back through 4.52 to confirm uptrend on Corn.
Wrap (15:04): Spectacular two or three weeks – up 800 points, 12.5% on the S&P 500. Fascinating times. Let us see where this goes over the next couple of weeks.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every market section above was called using my Better Trading Indicators – the same Big Pro Bars, RAMBO patterns, exhaustion buy and exhaustion sell signals you see in the video. They work on TradeStation, NinjaTrader, MultiCharts and TradingView. See the Better Trading Indicators and trade Monday with a plan.
