The Emini finally tore off the band aid at 7600 and ran 200 points without looking back – and there are still no blue Professional bars at the highs. This is the 9 August 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series, covering 15 of the largest futures markets using CME average trade size data. The theme this week: risk on is playing out exactly as called back in June, and the markets that measure inflation are all falling. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
TL;DR – This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini uptrend intact above the 7600 breakout. Big Pro Bars loaded at 7600 and there is no Professional selling at 7800. Expect the two Better Sine Wave resistances on the 135-minute chart to crack this week.
- Gold is on: 4100 to 4400 with Big Pro Bars at 4250. Stay with it until blue Professional bars appear at the highs. Silver is the warning – Big Pro Bars selling at $65 mean no chasing there.
- The inflation trade is fading. Crude gapped down to $76, and Natural Gas, Copper, Corn, Soybeans and Wheat are all in downtrends while 10-Year Notes rally. Rates are coming down.
Macro Setup This Week
The US dollar keeps sliding, lifting the Euro, British Pound and Aussie Dollar, while nearly every commodity chart points down: Crude, Natural Gas, Copper and the ags are all falling. That takes the pressure off CPI, which is why 10-Year Notes are rallying and rates are coming down. Add the political incentive – an administration heading into the midterms wants oil off, CPI down and the S&P at record highs – and there are plenty of reasons this risk-on run can continue.
The top callers are pointing at the SpaceX IPO valuation and saying this is it. But markets do not top on logic; they top on excess emotion – the KOSPI, Silver and Gold last year are what euphoria looks like. We are not seeing anything like that in the Emini yet.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES – Emini S&P 500 Futures: 7600 Breakout, No Pro Selling at 7800
The Emini burst through 7600 and took off like a rocket to 7800, now 500 points above the 13 June “summer of risk on” low. Daily chart: a bullish divergence on Better Momentum fired off a shallow retrace, and the market ramped. The move needs to run from exhaustion sell to exhaustion buy, and the intermediate lines are close to printing a trending move – pullback to end of trend territory. 135-minute: no exhaustion patterns, no blue Professional bars, no Amateur bars at the highs, with two Better Sine Wave resistances above that look ready to crack. 45-minute: blue Professional bars bought the late-week dip and a Signal Long fired on the break to new highs. The exhaustion sell there flushed out sellers who now have to buy back in – more fuel. 15-minute: exhaustion buy ended the move with bearish divergence and Amateur up bars, so expect some weakness until blue Professional bars step in on the retrace and stair step the Better Trading Indicators trailing stop higher. 13,500 tick bar: the story of the week – Big Pro Bars gathered at 7600, the previous high, anticipating the breakout. Trailing stops are almost 200 points back and there are still no blue Professional bars at the highs. Until there are, the uptrend continues.
6E – Euro Futures: Uptrend at 1.16, No Pro Profit Taking
The Euro keeps benefiting from USD selling. The signal two weeks ago was not a classic – no Big Pro Bars – but blue Professional bars did come in at the lows with exhaustion sell and flush patterns before the market took off. Big Pro Bars appeared on the way up without stopping the rally, and at 1.16 there are still no blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs. Uptrend intact.
6B – British Pound Futures: Squeeze Setup Below 1.3550
The British Pound is still in an uptrend after blue Professional bars marked the lows two weeks ago. No Professional selling at these highs, and with squeezes building everywhere a runaway move above 1.3550 is very much on the table. That would be an interesting breakout to catch.
6A – Aussie Dollar Futures: Long and Targeting 72
The Aussie Dollar is the open position – long and holding, looking for 72. A Big Pro Bar at the lows plus exhaustion sell gave a bouncing ball signal and the rally followed. There was an unstable patch – exhaustion buy, bearish divergence, and Rambo patterns brought some weakness – but no blue Professional bars took profits, and now a squeeze has formed. A bust out of this squeeze into a trending move, with Better Pro Am trailing all the way up, is the play.
6J – Japanese Yen Futures: Rambo Patterns but Still On
The Japanese Yen had a huge move – so much volume that only two weeks of activity fit on the tick bar chart. A well-timed signal preceded the rip (someone knew something), then a whole series of Rambo patterns at the highs showed the excitement, and the market dropped off as confidence faded. But there were no real blue Professional bars at the highs, so the move is still on until Big Pro Bars or blue boxes appear up there.
ZN – 10-Year Note Futures: Big Pro Bars Buying, Rates Coming Down
The 10-Year Notes are rallying because inflation may not be the problem everyone wants it to be – just look at the commodity charts. Big Pro Bars came in at the end of last week (flagged in last week’s video) and the market has kept going since, with no blue Professional bars taking profits. Still in an uptrend, which means rates are coming down.
GC – Gold Futures: Finally Rips 4100 to 4400
Gold finally got going after weeks of fussing around near 4050 – three signals in a row, each one waiting, and then the breakout. Big Pro Bars came in at 4250 and again on the retrace, and the exhaustion sell under 4300 cleared out sellers. The move from 4100 to 4400 is a nice one, and until blue boxes and blue Professional bars appear at the highs, Gold stays on. Watch whether the current pause at 4300-4400 is just a gathering pattern for the next leg.
SI – Silver Futures: Trap Warning at $65
Silver is half what it was – $63 versus the $120s – and this rally is a different story from Gold. No Big Pro Bars at the lows; instead the Big Pro Bars came in selling at $65 with exhaustion buy patterns. The cycle work says the move has overshot, and resistance sits overhead on the highest timeframe. A pullback to end of trend on the intermediate timeframe is likely. Just watch out on Silver with all of those Big Pro Bars at $65.
BTC – Bitcoin Futures: Signal Long off $62,500
Bitcoin rallied this week off the $62,500 lows, where Big Pro Bars first sold and then picked up the lows, with blue Professional bars at the bottom giving a signal. The market tested and took off. Big Pro Bars are appearing again near $65,000 – possibly a gathering pattern waiting to break above – with no exhaustion buy at this stage. Bitcoin is looking interesting.
ETH – Ethereum Futures: Bullish Divergence Back to $1,900
Ethereum had a bout of weakness with an odd mix of Big Pro Bars – up bars, down bars, mid-sequence, a little all over the place. But an exhaustion pattern with bullish divergence brought it back up to $1,900 and change. Watch whether the Professional activity cleans up and gets a real move going.
CL – Crude Oil Futures: Gap Down to $76
Crude answered last week’s question at $86 emphatically – it gapped down hard on the open as news broke that the Strait of Hormuz situation would improve. Now at $76 with no blue Professional bars at the lows, Crude is in a downtrend. The market is saying the war with Iran will not be a supply issue. The blue Professional bars that do exist came in on the way up, not at these lows.
NG – Natural Gas Futures: Trying to Bottom, No Signal
Natural Gas is trying to bottom but there is nothing concrete yet – no signal has fired. Until Better Pro Am confirms with Professional buying at the lows, it stays in the downtrend column with the rest of the energy complex.
HG – Copper Futures: Signal Short at the Highs
Copper has a well-known fundamental story, but the chart never really got going. Blue Professional bars and blue boxes appeared into the highs, a Signal Short fired, and the market has weakened from there. Copper is coming down with the rest of the commodities.
ZC – Corn Futures: Downtrend Until Pros Step In
Corn topped with exhaustion buy, bearish divergence and blue boxes at the highs, then a Signal Short and signs of weakness. The bounce off Rambo patterns and bouncing ball patterns after the trend change is fading, and no blue Professional bars have come in at the lows. Downtrend until they do.
ZS – Soybeans Futures: Signal Short Still Working
Soybeans fired a Signal Short two weeks ago, and it is still working. There is an exhaustion sell with bullish divergence at the lows, but no blue Professional bars have stepped in yet. Downtrend until the Pros show up.
ZW – Wheat Futures: Pros Short on the Retrace
Wheat weakened after blue Professional bars got short on the retrace, and they have not come back in since – one stray bar, but nothing at the lows after the exhaustion patterns. Same story as the rest of the ags: downtrend until Professional buying appears.
Pattern of the Week: The Gathering Pattern at 7600
Last week there was no signal at the Emini lows – no Big Pro Bars, no blue Professional bars at new lows – and it was frustrating. This week showed why the Professionals did not need the lows: they gathered at 7600 instead, the previous high, buying in anticipation of the breakout. When the level broke, the market rocketed 200 points. That is how Professionals position – not chasing the move, but accumulating at the level that matters before the crowd arrives. When you see Big Pro Bars clustering at a prior high in an uptrend, that is a gathering pattern, not a top.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 10 August 2026
Watch for blue Professional bars at the Emini highs – that is the only thing that changes the bullish bias. Expect possible short-term weakness on the 15-minute chart until Professionals buy the retrace, then another leg up through the 135-minute resistances. Gold at 4300-4400, Bitcoin against $65,000 and the British Pound squeeze below 1.3550 are the other setups to watch. Next weekend’s video comes from France, with some observations on the Australian economy on the way out.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): It is Saturday, 8 August 2026, just gone 12:33am Chicago time. Time for another weekend futures market recap – going through 15 of the largest futures markets to show you what I am seeing on my charts. Good god, we are up at 7800. We ripped as soon as we tore off the band aid at 7600, and it just would not stop. I hope you got on board some of that action. It reminds me of “Risk On, the Summer of Risk On” – I recorded that back on 13 June and we are now 500 points up from that low. That was the Summer of George video, with George Costanza from Seinfeld – I am sure everybody on the channel knows who that is, we are all of a certain age judging by my YouTube demographics.
Travel Notes – Leaving Australia (01:11): Three months in Australia has been and gone super fast. We are off to Sydney starting Monday, then France, settled in Provence by about Thursday or Friday. On next weekend’s video I will share some observations about what is happening in Australia – we change location three times a year and I normally do a look back at the local economy, and this time it has been fairly shocking. On the brighter side, this is where we are leaving: Noosa in Queensland, north of Brisbane – a national park, beautiful beaches, and the points where the surf lines up when big southerly swells come. It is 21 degrees Celsius here in the middle of winter. We are based at Sunshine Beach on the southern side – miles of open beaches with sandbanks all the way down. The Australians do an extremely good job of making these beaches accessible with paths and stairways. You will see bush turkeys all over the place – gentle creatures, quite happy hanging around the cafes. If you come to Australia, do not forget we have some of the best coffee and cafe culture in the world – that lower price point is the one to target, very competitive, very good chefs. The higher end is not worth the money. And you have to go to a pie shop – this is Rick’s in Noosa (and no, that is not Mrs Emini-Watch in the shot, she wanted me to point that out – just a random stranger). Australia is expensive, but the value for money is at the lower end of the bracket.
Emini Daily Chart (04:27): Let’s get to the Emini. We are at almost 7800, and 7600 was the one to get through – when we burst through it, we took off like a rocket. Where is it going? I do not know, but we go exhaustion sell to exhaustion buy. We went exhaustion buy to exhaustion sell from the last move, this low was put in with exhaustion sell, and this thing needs to go to exhaustion buy. We are just above neutral on Better Momentum on the daily chart, so look out. I have not changed my tune on this for months: we are in an uptrend, and until we see blue Professional bars at the highs – which we have not – this thing keeps going up. Two things stop a market: Professional activity at the highs with exhaustion patterns and Professionals taking profits at maximum exuberance, when everybody is piling in just like the KOSPI in Korea – look at the damage done there. Or Amateur up bars, where we run out of puff temporarily, back off, and then blue Professional bars step in when there is value and push it to the next high. We are not seeing anything like that on the daily chart. This week a bullish divergence went off – an almost triple bounce off support with a very shallow retrace on Better Momentum, which measures the delta, the buying and selling. Bang, we ramped off there – very little selling at that point. Last weekend I talked about whether the intermediate lines on the daily would cross and print a late support signal. If we keep going they will just go parallel instead, which means a trending move on the intermediate timeframe – and that goes to pullback to end of trend. Where this goes nobody knows, but these are interesting numbers.
Emini 135-Minute Chart (06:56): Blue Professional bars put in that support, we bounced off it, and we are up at the highs. No exhaustion patterns, no blue Professional bars, no Amateur bars – nothing at those highs to end this. We have two resistances up here on Better Sine Wave – bang, bang – and I think we crack through those this week, which turns us into another uptrend. Those will end up as pullback to end of trend. It is just a question of hanging on.
Emini 45-Minute Chart (07:26): The signal was late when we really got going this week, but blue Professional bars came in at the end of the week, buying into that little dip. They were down here, tested down here, and when the thing took off we got our sign of strength and a Signal Long as we broke to new highs. There is the exhaustion sell at that point – that has taken a bunch of sellers out of this market, they need to get back in, and this needs to go exhaustion sell to exhaustion buy. That gives us even more fuel. The bars were all red, we are in an uptrend, and there are the intermediate and highest timeframe resistances – it looks like we get above those, because there are no blue Professional up bars and no Amateur up bars saying we are running out of puff. It will be jumpy and chunky along the way, but there are no signs the top is in by any means.
Emini 15-Minute Chart (08:31): The beginnings and ends of the week are marked with solid vertical yellow lines. We had the signal last week – all the Big Pro Bars came in Thursday last week with exhaustion buy getting the move going. This move ended with exhaustion buy, bearish divergence and Amateur up bars into the high. So on the 15-minute we are starting to weaken, but there are no blue Professional bars yet, and the trailing stop on Better Pro Am – which ratchets up when blue Professional bars appear – has not moved. With resistance here we are putting in pullback to end of trends even on the low and intermediate timeframes. We could see a little weakness, but that will just be where the blue Professional bars come in on the retrace, and then we stair step the Better Pro Am trailing stop up through 7800. It will probably weaken on this chart until the blue Professional bars come in, then we have another go to see where they step in to take profits.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar Chart (09:36): This is where all those Big Pro Bars came in at 7600 – the previous high, very important – and that is the gathering pattern: blue Professional bars getting in anticipation of the breakout, and then we rocketed 200 points. Last week we did not get a signal at the lows and I was lamenting the lack of Big Pro Bars there. We had blue Professional bars in the exhaustion sell pattern, but not at new lows, so no Signal Long – it tripped us into an uptrend with Better Pro Am but without one of those reversal signals. At 7600 the Professionals decided this is going higher and jumped in. Trailing stops are almost 200 points away, so that has to trail up. No blue Professional bars at the highs – look for that next week.
How Markets Top Out (10:44): Good news: the market does the opposite of what people expect. A lot of bright people are saying the SpaceX IPO was a ridiculous valuation, that marks the top, this is the end. They have good points, but that is not how markets top out. Markets top when everybody is involved – the KOSPI, Silver last year, Gold last year. That is euphoria, everybody jumping in. We have not heard much from the silver bugs lately – they are down in the dumps with the market off the $120 highs. Markets do not top on logic, they top on excess emotion, and we have not seen that yet. Plus there are plenty of reasons for the administration to pump this into the midterms: oil off, CPI down, S&P at record highs, wealth going up – that is a good story to tell.
Euro (12:00): The USD has been selling off and the last couple of weeks have been good for the Euro. We got a signal two weeks ago – not a classic in terms of Big Pro Bars, but blue Professional bars came in at the lows with exhaustion sell and flush patterns, then bang, off to the upside. Some blue Professional bars and Big Pro Bars came in on the way up but did not stop the rally – exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, and we have kept going. We are at 1.16 with no blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs. Still in an uptrend.
British Pound (12:34): Still in an uptrend. Good god, I do not know why – Andy Burnham, the new prime minister, has been in the seat two weeks and he is on vacation, with the problems happening in the UK. Infuriating is not the word. Anyway, we got a signal two weeks ago with blue Professional bars at the lows – not Big Pro Bars – and we have rallied. No blue Professional bars at these highs, lots of squeezes happening at the moment, so we could easily bust out on the British Pound and see a runaway move above 1.3550. That would be interesting.
Aussie Dollar (13:11): I am long the Aussie at the moment and continuing to hold – I am looking for 72, but let’s see. Big Pro Bars on the way down, one at the lows, a whole bunch here, then the exhaustion sell – a bouncing ball signal – and we have rallied from there with no blue Professional bars at the highs. Yes, we had exhaustion buy, bearish divergence and Rambo patterns – that combination is unstable and we had some weakness – but no blue Professional bars taking profits, and now we have a squeeze. We could easily bust out of this squeeze pattern into a nice trending move, get the blue Professional bars in, and trail Better Pro Am all the way up. A nice one on the Aussie.
Japanese Yen (13:55): We had a huge move – that is why only two weeks of activity fit on this tick bar chart. A nice signal came just before the rip – someone knew something – and then everybody got excited with a whole series of Rambo patterns up at the highs. We lost confidence and dropped off, but there were not really blue Professional bars at the highs. So I think the Yen is still on until we see Big Pro Bars, blue Professional bars or blue boxes at the highs.
10-Year Notes (14:34): The 10-Years look like they are going up because people are saying maybe inflation is not a problem. Look at the commodity charts – Crude coming down, Natural Gas coming down, Copper coming down, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat all coming down. CPI might not be the big problem everyone wants to talk up. Bonds going up means rates coming down. Big Pro Bars came in at the end of last week – I flagged that in last week’s video and asked what was going on – and we have just kept going. No blue Professional bars taking profits. Still in an uptrend on the 10-Years.
Gold (15:12): Gold finally got going. I have been talking about this for weeks as it fussed around coming into 4050, and this week it took off. Three signals in a row, each week waiting and waiting, then it goes. Big Pro Bars came in at 4250 and on the retrace and kept going. At 4300, is that a gathering pattern waiting for another move? Until we see blue boxes and blue Professional bars at the highs we are still on, and we got rid of some sellers under 4300 with exhaustion sell. Gold ripped from 4100 to 4400 – a nice move.
Silver (15:57): Silver is at $63 – half what it was in the $120s. It also got going, but this is a different story: no Big Pro Bars at the lows, it mimicked Gold, and then the Big Pro Bars came in selling at $65 with exhaustion buy patterns there – it would not Signal Short at that point. In terms of cycles we have overshot, and we are fussing around at resistance on the highest timeframe. We probably have to put in a pullback to end of trend on the intermediate timeframe. Just watch out on Silver with all of those Big Pro Bars at $65.
Bitcoin (16:34): Bitcoin had a bit of a rally this week. It came into the lows at $62,500 with Big Pro Bars – some selling down there, then picking up the lows, and another batch below. Big Pro Bars came in, blue Professional bars at the lows, we got our signal, we tested, and we are away. Now Big Pro Bars are happening near $65,000 – let’s wait and see, that could be a gathering waiting to get above $65,000. No exhaustion buy at this stage. Bitcoin is looking interesting.
Ethereum (17:04): Ethereum had a little weakness. It was odd – Big Pro Bars coming in going up, going down at the lows, mid-sequence, a little all over the place. But we had an exhaustion pattern with bullish divergence and we have come back up to $1,900 and a bit. Let’s see if that cleans up and gets going.
Crude (17:27): Last week I was wondering about Crude at $86 – was it just getting going? As soon as the market opened it gapped down big time. They had the news early that things were going to improve with the Strait of Hormuz. We are down at $76 with no blue Professional bars at the lows, so we are in a downtrend. Crude is saying the war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz will not be an issue. There are some blue Professional bars, but they happened on the way up.
Natural Gas (18:05): Natural Gas is trying to bottom here but nothing concrete yet – it has not signaled.
Copper (18:12): Copper took off – I know the fundamental story – but it really has not got going. Coming up into the highs: Professional bars, blue bars, blue boxes, then a Signal Short, and it has weakened from there. Copper coming down.
Corn (18:31): Corn got exhaustion buy, bearish divergence, blue boxes at the highs, a Signal Short and signs of weakness. No blue Professional bars coming in at the lows – we just bounced off the Rambo patterns and bouncing ball patterns after a trend change and we are coming back down. Downtrend on Corn until we see blue Professional bars come in.
Soybeans (18:51): Same with Soybeans – Signal Short two weeks ago, bang, and the Pros have not come in at the lows yet. Yes, exhaustion sell and bullish divergence, but no blue Professional bars. Downtrend until we see them.
Wheat (19:03): Wheat weakened after blue Professional bars got short on the retrace, and they have not come back in – well, there is one bar, but not at the lows after the exhaustion patterns. All those commodities coming off, but no blue Professional bars yet.
Wrap Up (19:22): A rip around the charts – exciting times. It is going to be up and down; that is the way markets go, they breathe in and breathe out, and we have had a very strong few days. Maybe we weaken for a bit, but we are breaking above more resistances without blue Professional bars, exhaustion patterns and all the things that end trends. The bias has to be to the upside. I do not particularly like holding positions while we are traveling, but I think this one is worth holding on to – stops and targets are in place. I hope your trading is going well and let’s see how next week plays out.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every call in this recap comes straight off the Better Trading Indicators: Better Pro Am showing you where the Professionals and Amateurs are trading, Better Momentum measuring the buying and selling, and Better Sine Wave mapping the cycles. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
