Emini Trading Update – Wednesday 9 Nov 2011 (13:08)

Only 1 thing to say: cyclical resistance on weekly chart.

Links of the day …

Good article in WSJ on How to exit the Euro and what would happen – in short, a bloody nightmare. You think the riots are bad now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Another good article from Edward Harrison on Business Insider, talking about the ECB’s dilema: Austerity or print Euros.

Marc Faber thinks all central banks will eventually give in to the pressure and print – leading to higher asset prices, higher gold, lower currencies (depending on how enthusiastically you print) and maybe even hyper-inflation. But the Germans love their rules, plus they have actual experience of hyper-inflation.

Sitting here in Europe no one has yet mentioned the other “brilliant” invention of the Euro-zone: no borders and freedom of people to move between countries. What would you do if you were 25, unemployed, living in Greece or Italy. I tell you what I’d do – learn English and get the hell outta town. Interesting side note: last time I was in London I was amazed at the number of young Italians serving in stores. Hmm.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Trading Update – Friday 4 Nov 2011 (16:29)

If I hear the word “summit” one more time … Agh, so much going on. I can hardly keep up with the news feeds. Not that they impact my trading but just because I’m fascinated by the goings on.

Question of the day …

From Jim F.

“Can you tell me if there are any special system requirements my computer needs to have in order for it to handle all the data that will be pumping through it?”

There are no specific recommendations on computer specs but the best advice is to get something current and fast. That doesn’t mean a custom built machine just a high spec current machine. The two most critical components are a fast Internet connection (10+ Mbps) and sufficient RAM (4-8 GB).

I use tick charts for my day trading and they are more computer intensive than time-based charts. So I’m pushing my machine a little harder than most traders. On the other hand, I only have 3 windows open during the trading day, following 1 instrument – while other traders have dozens of windows open, following dozens of instruments.

More information here on Running charting software.

More information here on TradeStation system requirements.

Links of the day …

A piece of brilliant analysis from Zero Hedge on reverse repos and withdrawal of market liquidity. Plus here’s the European picture. This would seem to support the “U” turn we’ve seen in Treasuries and the USD.

And in case Repos are a mystery to you, nice little video from Khan’s Academy.

Then some rousing stuff from Martin Armstrong, including:

“Everyone claims we live in a democracy, but in truth, this is just a corrupt republic … government always turns into corrupt vile things dominated by oligarchies.”

Read the full piece from Armstrong here: A Crisis in Democracy.

And finally, HT to Barry Ritholtz. I love Japan and have so much respect for the Japanese. Before and after photos of the tsunami.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Trading Update – Thursday 3 Nov 2011 (7:44)

That “End of Trend” signal on the 135 minute Emini chart is now due – probably Friday, maybe Monday. I wonder what will happen – well, we’ll find out tomorrow.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 1 Nov 2011 (24:19)

OMG, what just happened in the last 48 hours – my head is spinning. George Pap. sticks a knife in Merkozy’s back. Jon Corzine hits the MF Global self-destruct button. Australian house prices fall! (Well, maybe that last item got glossed over in the melee.)

Warning, rant ahead: To all the bankers and brokers out there – if you want to trade, join a hedge fund or trade your own money. Leave my (and my fellow traders’) money alone. It don’t belong to you. Got it, MF Global? Jon C.?

Warning, rant #2 ahead: Go George Pap. – burn the house down. But 3 months to run a referendum? I’m sure if you asked Twitter or Facebook to run the vote for you they could get it done by next week. Like Gerald Celente says “if we can bank online, we can vote online”.

Links of the day …

I recorded this video months ago, then forgot all about it. New visitors might find it helpful. It explains my chart setup and how to read the indicators. You’ll always be able to find it just above the videos, top right: HOW TO READ THESE CHARTS – CLICK HERE.

Fascinating interview this weekend with banking expert, Chris Whalen. He explains the differences between US and Europe on bond holder haircuts, that the US banking sector has bought the Obama administration and deflation is happening with small banks downsizing and lending less.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Chart Roundup – Saturday 29 Oct 2011 (22:47)

Video about what I’m looking for next week and thoughts on average trade size and interest rates. Just in case you’re bored and lonely this weekend. The video overran a little because I recorded it late in the day and without the aid of caffeine.

Link of the day …

Carl Weiss has a great little piece over at Algo Futures about order flow and the differences between FX, Equities and Futures.

He makes a great point that the order flow in FX has gaps and in Equities is being messed up by HFT (high frequency trading). Futures are still pretty pure and in particular he likes Crude Oil because the commercials (as opposed to speculators) are a larger part of the market.

Better Momentum and Better Pro Am rely on measuring that order flow – effectively they are plotting the swings and identifying Professional activity. So for me the futures markets, and particularly the Emini, are the best markets to trade.

I’ve made the argument before Why to avoid Equities but it’s nice to see a seasoned trader come out with his reasons. Go check out the article at Algo Futures.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Trading Update – Friday 28 Oct 2011 (13:16)

Finally, my Internet connection got fixed – yay! Very stressful last couple of days and it got in the way of trading. Anyway, managed to finish my week strong. I’ve put up day trades from Thursday and Friday, both “one shot one kills”.

On Saturday I’ll do a multi-market review – interest rates (and Bonds) are looking very interesting. Is the debt focus starting to switch from Europe to US?

Link of the day …

Thank you, thank you Tyler D. at Zerohedge for an entire hour of Hugh Hendry. A maverick genius and I love his stuff.

Around the 3 minute mark in the part 1 video Hugh Hendry talks about debt cycles – 40 years up and 40 years down:

“Less widely understood is that there was a revulsion of debt and leverage within society (after the stock market crash of ’29) and that changes very slowly and I would argue that it was finally eradicated from society in 1973-74, so 40 years later it was finally gone and then we moved on to another cycle of taking on debt.”

Where it has paid to be optimistic. And a classic quote at the end of the part 4 video:

“Procrastination kills you in a business that is determined by risk.”

So be quick to take profits and quick to reverse.

Quote of the day …

Always fantastic to hear of traders making it. From David D.

“I’d like to thank you again for your wonderful indicators. Now that I’ve learned some easy language basics, I can really appreciate how much you’ve done! But besides that, your indicators make it much more interesting to trade and I’m happy to report that I’m now consistently profitable and very much enjoying the independent life that this game can bring.”

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Trading Update – Wednesday 26 Oct 2011 (6:27)

OK. Family visit over and back into it. And what a day for me with multiple Internet outages. V v v annoying. Stopped trading with a “one shot one kill” and 5 points.

When the tech is not working, stop trading. The risks are too high to continue.

I’ll put up more video and commentary tomorrow – hopefully the Internet problems are temporary. But just as a “teaser” – the average trade size on Monday up at 1,250 was HUGE – all day. It was no wonder we got a sell off on Tuesday. “Buy the rumour, sell the news” type activity.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Trading Update – Wednesday 19 Oct 2011 (21:46)

Discussion today about trend moves morphing into cycle moves (congestion). After Tuesday’s trend up move we needed to digest this on Wednesday morning – before moving into a down trend move.

I was looking for trend breakouts early on – and shouldn’t have been. Should have been playing the ranges instead. But we finally got the breakdown after midday and that paid off – but it was a 2 hour wait.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 18 Oct 2011 (24:29)

First of all an apology for the “test” post – I was testing a new video format and hit publish by mistake. Sorry about that.

Anyway, we’re back at 1,230 – it felt like a massive short covering rally or blow off move or something. We’ve broken above our congestion zone, again. And the cycles are still there. So who knows, I’ll keep focussing on the micro and just take my setups.

How to Subscribe to Podcast Updates (3:30)

Just a short video about watching Emini-Watch on Android and iPhones. Finally figured out how to do this on my Android phone after about 6 months of trying – duh.

Quote of the day …

From Jason (fellow surfer) who took the same short trade at the beginning of Tuesday …

“After what felt like a bun fight yesterday with the market and scraping 1.5 points after numerous trades, this one today felt particularly sweet for 4. Should have waited for the end of trend and not the best entry but we had many blue bars into Sine Wave resistance at 1999 on the 4500 chart. Even though I had to take 2 points + of heat I felt comfortable as your brilliant indicators showed the way in EminiWatch text book fashion. Amateur bars into the End of Trend with a nice Flush to finish off on the 1500 chart.”

Link of the day …

Check out Day 1 and 2 highlights of the Rip Curl Pro Portugal – unbelievable beach break barrelling waves.

Ah yes, I remember Supertubos (the break) – had my surfboard stolen from the camp site while I slept when I was 19 after waiting a week for the fog to clear and the swell to arrive. Yes, good times.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Trading Update – Friday 14 Oct 2011 (16:14)

Cycle turns are upon us. Emini lead the way and now we’ve got the risk on/off charts lining up too. Plus Professional activity at the end of Friday – were they taking profits? I’ll be watching Sunday’s open to see if they try a gap-and-go or the rally fades.

Quote of the day …

I had a poor week – but Warren is killing it …

“+1/4 pt. today and +17 pts. this week … This week had 3 days with significant gaps and we saw a market constantly out of balance. That makes it very tough to trade because the cyclical turns are not always turning points. So I really need to work on my entries. Even with me tripping over my technique I still made money this week.

“Just wanted to say thanks again for the indicators and trading videos. Looking at volume this way for a few months now has given me enough experience to get a better feel for what is likely to happen at the cyclical turns. I am getting a little bolder and continuing to trade after hitting my 4pts … Thanks Again!”

Links of the day …

Quiksilver Pro in NYC

Steve Keen’s latest video interview

FYI if you’re a Mac user …

My Mac started playing up – running slow, spinning beach balls, excessive fan noise. The final straw was Gmail identified a virus on an outgoing email attachment. Well that started me thinking that a Mac was not just a set-and-forget proposition – it needed some maintenance.

In the hunt to find a solution I discovered MacKeeper. I ran it once and within minutes it identified and fixed a ton of issues – including 2 viruses. Well, the difference on my Mac is night and day. It now runs super fast and super quiet.

MacKeeper is not cheap at $55 but in my mind it’s priceless – I live on my Mac and it needs to run flawlessly. Don’t know what it fixed (despite querying the logs) but the software handles viruses, junk files, optimization tweaks, etc. I couldn’t be happier. Thank God for MacKeeper.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.