The Commitment of Traders feature article has been updated:
- Video tutorials on how to import COT data into TradeStation
- Improved versions of the Better COT indicator code
- Updated Commitment of Traders Excel spreadsheet
- Introducing a Stock Market Crash indicator
- PDF version of the article available for download
Latest Commitment of Traders Charts
Commitment of Traders: Professionals +2.7% (long)
The professionals (large SP contract) increased their long positions again this week from 2.5% to 2.7% of total open interest. Remember the data is collected after the close of trade on Tuesday – before Friday's market collapse.
The Large vs Mini contract difference (red line) decreased this week. This shows the large contract professionals (the "true" professionals) are less bullish than they were the week before compared to the small contract professionals (Emini). However, the decline is not great and has not fallen below the level of two weeks ago.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -90
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator declined from -56 to -90 this week. We're now in the buy zone and looking for signs of strength.
Friday's decline took me by surprise. We were over-bought on my swing trading oscillators but yet to make an "end of trend" pattern on the daily Hilbert Sine Wave. The cyclical top arrived early – from my perspective.
The volume was very high at 2.8 million contracts traded – the largest volume we've seen since the March lows. This smells of panic by the herd and Professional accumulation. The follow through was limited on Monday and some bell-weather stocks are holding up well – AAPL, RIMM, GOOG. I remain cautiously optimistic.
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.