This week's Commitment of Traders reading is +4.0%
Professionals are net long and their net long positions make up 4.0% of total open interest in all stock index futures. This is an increase of 0.5% from last week. Professionals continue to add to their long positions during market weakness over the last week and a half.
Note: Commitment of Traders data is collected after the close on Tuesday each week and then published after the close on Friday. On the chart below: Light blue dot = Low turning point; Red dot = High turning point.
This week's Commitment of Traders Oscillator reading is -47
The COT Oscillator declined again this week from +9 to -47. With this fall below zero, we now how a confirmed high turning point at 1,559.00 on 1 June 2007. Last week I mentioned that "my best guess is that the COT Oscillator will bounce off the zero line and signal a long entry." Well, we might just have got that long entry this week. But we'll have to wait until the oscillator crosses above the zero line for a confirmation.
Although the COT data appears to be very bullish with a +4.0% reading and apparent Oscillator entry this week, the Bond market has collapsed over the last month. As a result, the Emini is very overvalued compared to Bonds and eventually something will have to give.
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.