The latest Commitment of Traders Report still shows the Professionals net short.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals -13.3% (short)
The Professionals reduced their Short positions this week. However, their net Short positions still account for -13.3% of total open interest.
The red line in the chart above is still negative, showing that the SP (large contract) Professionals are more bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. Back testing shows that the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator +135
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator has now crossed the zero line, reached a maximum of +140 last week and turned down to +135 this week. Crossing the zero line confirms the last swing low at 739 on the Emini, made 5 weeks ago (blue/cyan dot on price bar). We are now technically over-bought on the Commitment of Traders Oscillator and the turn down in the Oscillator is the first sign of weakness.
Last week we had an inside bar, down close on low volume – indicating indecision and lack of commitment to move in either direction. My cycle indicators are approaching lows on the 45, 81 and 135 minute time frames and so we could get a rally next week. However, given the bearishness of the Professionals and over-bought Commitment of Traders Oscillator, any rally will probably be weak and/or short lived.
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.
