Apologies for the last email that was sent out – I changed one setting in my Feedburner account and it ended up sending out a torrent of past updates. Hopefully, problem fixed.
Commitment of Traders: Professionals -15.9% (short)
Professionals continue to add to their Short positions this week. The Commitment of Traders is now reading -15.9% of total open interest, down from -14.7% last week.
The Large contract (e.g. SP) Professionals are still more bearish that the Mini (e.g. ES) contract Professionals with the difference standing at -19.8% (red line above). This is not a good development as the SP Professionals are usually a better indicator of market direction.
Commitment of Traders: Oscillator -28
The Commitment of Traders Oscillator ticked up a fraction this week from -42 to -28. Not sure this is significant – just a glitch in the calculation. We'll have to see.
I'm still bearish on the Emini and think we're watching a slow rolling over. We got a "No Demand" volume pattern on the weekly chart. Plus we're about to make a cycle top on the daily chart – the second after an "End of Trend" warning signal and very significant for me.
US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
US Dollar Index: Professionals +31.5% (long) and Oscillator +28
Professionals continue to maintain their Long positions on the US Dollar this week. The net Long position reading is +31.5% of total open interest. The US Dollar Commitment of Traders Oscillator is now at +28.
I hope you caught my video on the monthly charts and cycle analysis. I still think we're seeing a gradual change in theme from equities, gold, commodities and emerging markets (risk/carry trade) to US Dollar, cash and bonds.
Remember, the Commitment of Traders data is collected weekly after the close on Tuesday and the Commitment of Traders Report is published after the close on Friday.